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Seminole

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Everything posted by Seminole

  1. This is going to be what to watch for as far as direct impact is concerned.
  2. A 4th year in the row of La Nina? Has that ever happened?
  3. GFS is at least consistent with a Caribbean TCG. This run has it effecting Louisiana instead of scraping the Florida E coast.
  4. Those threads back then when he was on the chase was a perfect example how crowd sourcing info can pay dividends. Kind of nostalgic when you think about it.
  5. SAL is still significant enough to strangle out any potential TC in the MDR.
  6. If the disintegration of the Bermuda High in the later GFS runs comes to fruition it likely means any CV spin ups will be fish storms.
  7. I think it is safe to agree that peak SAL is not going to happen until Mid August or even later given current conditions. Any TC formation would likely be in the GOM or Western Caribbean in the near term.
  8. The past 2 weeks have been very dry around the coast of the big bend. We have storms build but don't drop rain until inland. The past 2 days have been a return to normal but like you this is our rainy season.
  9. SAL is just brutal out there. https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=split&time=
  10. I take those long range forecasts with a grain of salt but those fronts sagging that far south this early in the season is not the norm.
  11. Very interesting regarding the Gulf Coast of FL. 1956 Flossy, 1975 Eloise, 1985 Kate and 2000 Gordon were all panhandle or nature coast storms. With the exception of Kate, all were September storms. Thanks for putting this together.
  12. I was in Tallahassee for Kate then attending FSU. The amount of trees blown down was incredible. The only thing that made it not too bad was that it happened in November so living without AC for weeks was not too bad. And as for a city learning anything from Kate, that never happened. Tallahassee is still lined with many canopy roads with power lines right there amongst all those trees. Never lived in a city where power was so prone to go out because of tree limbs, squirrels you name it. The power grid I have on St. George Island is more stable than the Tallahassee power grid.
  13. An issue with October is usually by then a couple of fall cold fronts typically make there way through North Florida and it does impact the SST's in the northern GOM. There are outlier years like 2018 which gave us Michael but those are rare. So far this season has been very similar to 2011, Southern Plains baking and the the S.E. East Coast stuck in a blocking pattern.
  14. 2011 was the second warmest summer in U.S. history. Deep south and Southern Plains states cooked that year under dome after dome of high pressure. DFW had 56 days of triple digits.
  15. This year is shaping up like the 2011 Season. La Nina with the US east coast dominated with blocking High pressure.
  16. Looks like the 12Z GFS backed way off of the potential Caribbean genesis.
  17. TS formation in the BOC in June happens more often than not.
  18. I think it's reasonable to put a fork in October. November may have a surprise ala Kate 1985. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Kate_(1985)
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