For anybody interested
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Morristown TN
341 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)...
An active weather pattern with strong jet dynamics producing
widespread precipitation through Thursday.
For Tonight, a good deal of mid and high level clouds, especially
southern half of the area initially. Deeper moisture begins to
pull back into area toward daybreak Thursday.
For Thursday, the strong jet dynamics with a 300mb jet of
150-160kts over the Ohio valley and mid-Atlantic states. The
forcing will produce strong forcing with good fronto-genetic lift
around the 600mb level. Models also show good isentropic lift.
Initially, the temperature profile shows more of a mixture of
rain/snow but once dynamic cooling ramps up the precipitation will
change over the snow most locations.
Looking at HREF ensembles, the Smoky Mountains will likely receive
the most snowfall with up to 6 inches with generally 2 to 4. Have
upgrade this area to a warning. The winter weather advisory for
the rest of the east Tennessee Mountains and southwest North
Carolina looks good.
Big question is snow accumulations for the Tennessee valley and
Plateau. Given the boundary layer temperature is marginal for
snow, ground temperatures in the 30s/40s,and snowfall occurring
during the day, snowfall will likely be limited to mainly grassy
and elevated surfaces.
Snow will taper off to light snow showers/furries by late
afternoon and early evening.