Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[TJW014]

GFS yet again remains best case scenario. 

[psv88]

1 minute ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Long Island is going to get screwed with early sleet isn’t it. 

No. It’s a great run for us. Still 12+ and cold. It’s coming. 

[David-LI]

4 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Long Island is going to get screwed with early sleet isn’t it. 

Based on the 12z GFS for Long Island, it looks like  about 6-8 inches of snow before changeover to sleet around 5-7 pm. Then perhaps another 2 inches of sleet. I do not see Long Island with 14 inches of snow.

[wthrmn654]

4 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Long Island is going to get screwed with early sleet isn’t it. 

No lol

[Jt17]

GFS yet again remains best case scenario. 

Looking very similar to NAM


.

[wxman]

GFS is consistent with most of the greats in our area.  Very hard to stay all snow...but 90+% snow is doable...and think 8 to 14 is a good call attm from CNJ into NYC.   That's what I'm telling people anyway.  Bust low potential 4".  Bust high potential 17".  

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, psv88 said:

No. It’s a great run for us. Still 12+ and cold. It’s coming. 

I also think so. We always have to worry about sleet but now the models are bringing the precip in earlier and transferring faster to the coastal. 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Long Island is going to get screwed with early sleet isn’t it. 

We have to watch how it plays out on Sun AM. It's going to be a very high impact storm here regardless of how much sleet we get and I'd argue even higher impact with sleet. Sleet is very tough to move and lasts longer. It will also all freeze up into a brick after it's done. The snowpack with 9-10" and sleet or 15-16" all snow has the same water content. Every model has the initial heavy thump of snow-does it stay intact like a wall or start shredding up, if it shreds up we get sleet sooner. That being said the sleet will sooner or later get here in this type of storm, always does. 

[eduggs]

The GFS has been holding out on bringing sleet to NENJ, Westchester, and the south shore of CT. This run it finally did briefly - even viewed on the 6hr panels. But its run-to-run shifts fortunately haven't been huge. And it looked like the GFS actually made bigger moves south of us around 48hr with an initially sharper trof before shifting east later in the run... like it was playing catch up initially on the phasing but still picking up on the trend towards a more positively tilted trof angle.

[David-LI]

Wrap around snow on the GFS, still snowing at 1 pm on Monday.

[jm1220]

GGEM looked pretty good to me, no weird dry slot/holes. To me a general overrunning system like this isn't as bandy as a major nor'easter would be and shouldn't have these random dry spots. 

[Northof78]

Now, basically all models in the 10" - 15" range, with a good/classic coastal storm track and near perfect high pressure placement. Some sleet NYC S/E, but not before A LOT of snow....

[SACRUS]

21 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

12z Suite

 

Total QPF / Snow/sleet Frz Rn (10:1) - NYC

SREF:  1.4 / (8.8)
NAM: 1.7 / (14.6)
RGEM:  1.1 / (7.8)
ICON:  1.2 / (8.0)
GFS:  1.4 / (12.4)

Updated

[Winterweatherlover]

12Z CMC a bit colder than 0Z

[lee59]

This should be a good nowcast storm. So many variables. Long Island looks to be good up front snows, then sleet or freezing rain and back to snow.

[NJwx85]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

GGEM looked pretty good to me, no weird dry slot/holes. To me a general overrunning system like this isn't as bandy as a major nor'easter would be and shouldn't have these random dry spots. 

It’s a bit less than the GFS but not terrible.

[EastonSN+]

Update.

Improved:

NAM

CMC

RGEM

Did not improve:

ICON

GFS

Waffles.

 

[winterwarlock]

Canadian looks 8-12 verbatim

[donsutherland1]

The NBM's average snow-liquid ratio was down to 10.0:1 for the 1/23 12z output vs. 16.5:1 for the 1/23 0z output. In short, it was starting to come in line with what is typical for high QPF snow events. Given the warming that is expected at 650 mb-800 mb, which will change the precipitation to sleet in New York City and its nearby suburbs and south and east from there, I suspect that a storm average 7:1 to 9:1 is probably more likely. That will still translate into a significant snowfall for the New York City area.

Initially, little has changed regarding the DGZ and vertical profile of temperatures during the  onset to the height of the storm. Conditions are forecast to be almost ideal for dendritic formation. Hence, snow-liquid ratios will probably start at 13:1 to 15:1 and then fall as the mid-levels begin to warm prior to the change to sleet. Snowfall rates could approach 1"-2" per hour during late Sunday morning into the early Sunday afternoon as an area of powerful 700 mb frontogenic forcing moves across the region. 

The NAM had been the most aggressive model with the push of warm air aloft at 6z, but it backed off at 12z, due to a combination of a weaker/more southward primary low and overall reduction in amplification at 500 mb. The RGEM had moved in a similar direction as the 12z NAM during the 6z cycle but then reversed itself at 12z. A comparison of the 6z and 12z NAM soundings for NYC for select points in time is below.

With the models continuing to shift about, it makes little sense to pursue hunches or preconceived notions into blind alleys, throw darts to guess which specific model solution will verify, or to ride any single model and the roller coaster of emotions it brings with each cycle. Thus, continuity at this point is a better approach than lurching in one direction or another only to crash one's forecast.

To me, it still appears that New York City and nearby areas will likely see a storm total of 6"-12" of snow and sleet. Areas to the south and east of New York City could see 4"-8" amounts. Pockets of 12"-18" amounts are possible well north and west of New York City, most likely in parts of northeastern Pennsylvania, Orange County, Dutchess County, and Sussex County. 

There remains some uncertainty concerning mid-level and surface storm evolution and tracks, and perhaps somewhat greater uncertainty regarding a potential primary-secondary storm handoff. Model skill is improving and will improve markedly today as the lead time shortens during the day. For now, it appears that the models are slowly working toward a consensus. At present, there's no compelling need to make changes up or down in storm total snow/sleet amounts.

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

It’s a bit less than the GFS but not terrible.

A bit drier I think more than even warm, I don't see any 18+ totals anywhere on the GGEM.

[Northof78]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Update.

Improved:

NAM

CMC

RGEM

Did not improve:

ICON

GFS

Waffles.

 

3 improved, 2 neutral, overall big south/stronger confluence trend

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

A bit drier I think more than even warm, I don't see any 18+ totals anywhere on the GGEM.

Follows the rgem. Probably just noise since other models have settled on 1 to 1.5"

[EastonSN+]

AIGFS a bit worse. 

[psv88]

16 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Based on the 12z GFS for Long Island, it looks like  about 6-8 inches of snow before changeover to sleet around 5-7 pm. Then perhaps another 2 inches of sleet. I do not see Long Island with 14 inches of snow.

Yea i don't think anyone on long island should be expecting 14" of snow...8-12" total snow and sleet is a good forecast, and its in our WSW. 

This will be a MECS with major impacts, largely because it will be so cold. But, this is not a record setting storm by any means. Just a major, high impact storm to enjoy on a Sunday. That is what this has always been. Setting your expectations higher is not realistic. 

[SACRUS]

 

1/23 12z GGEM 

 

Total QPF:

 

Total snow / sleet (10:1)

 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Canadian looks 8-12 verbatim

Slightly south and colder

Good trends on the 12z runs

[CentralNJSnowman]

Canadian doesn't seem to have the nasty cutoff that's showing on other models

[MarcmmKU]

24 minutes ago, Astoriaweather said:

Some NYC area Mets are increasing totals for the city this morning. Others, like Tomer, are really down playing things and seem skeptical of even 6 inches in the city. 

https://x.com/MikeMasco/status/2014682599302607146?s=20

Tomer is pretty good, and is cautious with these overrunning setups. He's busted low with them recently.

[eduggs]

Models have been showing steadily less precipitation into Michigan and southern Ontario reflecting the lessening trof angle. That makes the synoptics more workable for us and makes it much less likely the NAM will signal a shift to a sleet bomb ending as ZR. As I've mentioned, when Saranac Lake, NY and Burlington, VT get big snows, we usually do not.

[weatherpruf]

3 minutes ago, MarcmmKU said:

Tomer is pretty good, and is cautious with these overrunning setups. He's busted low with them recently.

i find lee goldberg and the guy on news 12 pretty good. no one is perfect. but news 12 was so good during ida i gained a lot of respect for them.