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MarcmmKU

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Everything posted by MarcmmKU

  1. MarcmmKU
    Not always. Even northern new england isn't immune to literal torches. See December 2015. I am crossing my fingers we don't get something like this again.
  2. MarcmmKU
    Cold snow > Cold dry > warm dry > warm wet.
  3. MarcmmKU
    Not necessarily. I think 1997-1998 was ok for the interior. I think it's unlikely though that both the interior and coast get close to normal snowfall. At least one will probably be far below normal. The coast cause they missed out on a KU, or the interior cause it truly was an epic torch.
  4. MarcmmKU
    Food for thought is that this nino isn't really coupling well to real time observations in South America. A typical nino response down there is for lots and lots of precip in the central andes in Chile. So far bone dry and anomalously warm for may there, especially in a burgeoning strong nino.
  5. MarcmmKU
    Totally agree. I'm an avid skier and strong ninos make my gut sink. I am praying we don't see a repeat of 2015-2016 in Vermont. Would be a disaster.
  6. MarcmmKU
    For the interior northeast strong nino is almost always bad news. Coast can get a good fraction of their seasonal totals from 1 KU type storm, which are more likely to occur in traditional niños.
  7. MarcmmKU
    Very hard to escape -pna now. Was kinda a miracle this last winter was better in that regard.
  8. MarcmmKU
    Too much niña. We haven’t had a traditional classic niño since 2018-2019.
  9. MarcmmKU
    Looking forward to the king, February 2026, being written about.
  10. MarcmmKU
    Our variance is certainly very high.... Always makes the winter forecast a nail biter if you like snow lol
  11. MarcmmKU
    I do think uber strong ninos tend to me more negative for us than for you. Midwest is pretty resistant to terrible snow years. Not the case on the coast, even interior NE.
  12. MarcmmKU
    EWR cleared 50". Central park had some dubious measurements, especially with the December storms, and they stopped measuring after 9 am during the February KU when some of the heaviest rates of the storm occured... Wouldn't be surprised if they also easily cleared 50" of snow.
  13. MarcmmKU
    Yeah "shutout" is relative. If Stowe VT gets, say 80" in a winter, that's considered a shutout for them. I would consider 2015-2016 basically a shutout for the new england.
  14. MarcmmKU
    Fair. I guess the concern is that there’s basically no floor with super strong el ninos. Can be a total shutout almost even for people at very high latitudes and elevations.
  15. MarcmmKU
    What are your thoughts for north country? Obviously vermont always gets more than the cities but does next winter really have the potential to be as much of a stinker for the ski areas as 2015-2016?
  16. MarcmmKU
    I'm assuming the strong + enso event will pretty much guarantee a ratter ski season? Iirc, for northern new england they've never had a strong snow season in a strongly positive enso state.
  17. MarcmmKU
    Right, really a bummer what looked to be a good old fashioned winter was soured by a ratter february. Least snowy february since february 2020 assuming nothing pops up last couple days of the month. Miracle march is also unlikely since march stopped being a winter month for the city as of the 2020s.
  18. MarcmmKU
    Yup they lost it at around day 5-6 or so. Days 5-8 are very dangerous because they're close enough to take more seriously than 10 days out but far enough that the accuracy at day 7 is basically nil
  19. MarcmmKU
    0 nor'easters that hit here since jan 22. Even that one was more of a graze for the city proper, decent hit for LI though.
  20. MarcmmKU
    Whatever outcome gives least snow for central park is the most likely to verify
  21. MarcmmKU
    March snow is not really a thing anymore for the coastal plain
  22. MarcmmKU
    LOL yeah. Do we trust every model with an offshore solution or the one model on an island showing 30+" for washington dc of all places. Hmm tough decision.
  23. MarcmmKU
    We got lucky with that warm air advection storm january but otherwise yea kinda a mediocre winter from the standpoint of snowfall. All that cold only for nyc to finish 8" below seasonal averages :/
  24. MarcmmKU
    In fact we've never had a high impact storm with 0 euro hits this close.
  25. MarcmmKU
    It's not that hard. Ridge axis is wrong and there's not enough separation between this and the friday system. OTS. Not a hard setup.
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