MarcmmKU
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Everything posted by MarcmmKU
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Well, at least 2023 snowed in vermont. 2015 was an utter shut out. Not an accumulating flake even at elevation, and repeated washouts. I'm already mentally prepared for the skiing in northern VT to be garbage this december but there are certainly levels of garbage.
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How much though? 2015 levels of suck or more like 2023?
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Sorry you're not getting your desired torch late summer pattern. No more 90s in central park until next may/june is a given at this point. Too rainy and niño like.
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As always with CC it was warmer than normal cause of high dews causing overnight lows a degree or two warmer than normal. It did not "feel" like a warmer august in the slightest.
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Heat has backed off for late august/early september timeframe. Forky in shambles.
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I can see our last 90 occuring during this time frame. I think we easily hit 90 and high dews at the hot spots. Then hopefully kick summer out-good riddance.
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+4 F is extremely workable for the interior. Can even be beneficial if moisture is above normal too. Things only start to get worrisome for interior NE if we start flirting with +8 F
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Central park rarely gets good colors anymore because the UHI and CC+higher atmospheric moisture is producing record overnight lows.
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I would think good, but the likely warmer than normal overnight lows will reduce color. We need a very cold fall now to get good foliage.
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NAO throws a wild card and we get repeated lengthy -NAO periods. Unfavored though since the QBO and solar cycle are wrong. But the nao is the one thing that could lead to a snowier outcome than expected.
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I don't see it being the warmest for the entire CONUS i think there will be plenty of western troughs and storminess. record warm for northeast however is almost a given, especially december.
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Thoughts on late august and sept? Do you think summer sticks around till October or do we get an early start to fall?
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This. Next winter might actually be a 0" for one of the nyc weather stations.
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Also as bluewave says, summers have been more front loaded as of late. The last seriously hot late summer was back in 2023 with a run of mid 90s the first week of september.
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Climo does start fighting back hard. Late august and september are the time of year with the steepest declines in the highs. Yes 90s can happen but it gets significantly harder than in june and july. Also interesting take that anything less than 90s and upper 80s is "cold". Are you a reptilian?
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I really damn hope the dew points start crashing once we flip the calendar.
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NOAA is sold on the heat coming back latter third of August. Thankfully climo starts fighting back hard around then. Usually the time of year with sharpest temp drops.
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I see a lot of ice storms for the interior.
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March 2026 in the American west seemed absurd too until it happened.
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Getting very nervous about this winter being a 2015-2016 like bust in vermont ski country. Same atmospheric patterns in place, in an even warmer background climate. Yikes.
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August is now too humid to easily produce 100 degree days.
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50s and rain all the way up to the summits of the ski resorts.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
MarcmmKU replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
As bluewave said none of the modelling will pick up on a 10 F + month until it's very very close to occuring. I'm expecting a torch month (almost certainly december), with january and february above normal by 5-6 F rather than 10. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
MarcmmKU replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
If we can finally eradicate the boiling oceans in the western pac and get a strong +PDO for the late 2020s it will be worth it, even if the coast gets 0 snow all winter long. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
MarcmmKU replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I think the warmth will unfortunately be overwhelming for people near I95. You don't get a nino this strong without at least a 10+F month, and most likely all the storms will lack adequate blocking because the NAO will be very positive as well.
