MarcmmKU
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Everything posted by MarcmmKU
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Very warm start to october, with possible record minima.
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Oh right I remember october 2022 was delightfully cool and crisp. No ugly 80s rearing their heads.
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Looks like we'll see a return to 80s and higher dew points first few days of October. This happens nearly every year now. @bluewavewhat was the last time we had an october without at least one 80 F reading?
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Cold and snow are much less correlated north of 44 N.
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In recent years it has been much later. More like mid october.
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If you’re central park you can go a year without much snow at all LOL. More seriously though nyc has gotten the short end of the stick in recent winters. Even though last winter was great, the park still ended with 44” which was significantly below parts of NJ directly adjacent to the city. I think manhattan is a uniquely hostile environment for snow given its latitude.
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If the northern interior and elevations can squeak out all winter months < 5 F above normal (might be tough to pull off in December) they should do just fine with all the ample moisture. Coast I think is more hit or miss. We'd likely need a period with good blocking to get close to seasonal.
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I think if you live at least at 40 N or above you should be happy with the wet signal. It takes a seriously rotter winter to get tons of precip with little snow at that latitude (not saying it can't happen). I'd rather gamble with wet than get stuck with cold dry. I recall 2024-2025 was bitter cold on the east coast but absolutely bone dry because of the niña. Those winters suck.
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No way. October these days almost always has at least one 80 F day. A couple years ago it even hit 80 on Halloween. A sufficiently torchy November also sometimes has 80 F days.
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The southern plains and southeast really can't take a break from the heat. It's like there's a permanent ridge over Oklahoma now.
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There's not much to work with here. I think Feb-March will be a better window perhaps.
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I think we're all more or less on the same page about that one. A bad outcome would be historically bad. The best case possible outcome would likely still be a BN snow winter. No one north of Philly say is getting AN snow.
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It isnt hard for the coast to reach near normal snow in December because December has such bad climo for snow in general. Would take NYC just one 3-5" storm to reach normal for December. That's possible even in an utterly hostile climo. Makes sense that northern NE is far below normal for Dec though.
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The lack of melt points to strong PV. So does the QBO. You can't get a worse winter pattern for the northeast in terms of cold. The cold will be bottled up at the arctic like 2019-2020, and the conus will be flooded with pac air.
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Lil preview of december 2026, but the center of heat over the plains instead of the NE.
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Too much UHI these days to easily secure lows in the 50s before late september. We will smash the record likely.
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rip
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Well it affects us too. Can't have nice crisp fall weather with a death ridge planted just to our southwest. All it would take is the ridge to move east just a tiny bit and we'd also torch.
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Septorcher 2026 Discussion - Endless Summer
MarcmmKU replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
The most obvious consequence has been the absence of any sort of winter weather in march. 7 torch snowless marches in the northeast in a row. -
Pesky omega block. Those things do not let up unless they are torn apart somehow. Delayed start to fall for those of us to our south and west. We appear to be on the fringe of it and thus will be only slightly AN.
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Looks like September will end up being the hottest summer month for TX/OK.
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Texas 2026 Discussion/Observations
MarcmmKU replied to Stx_Thunder's topic in Central/Western States
Not at all my area, (but it does indirectly affect our weather), but when do you think the huge ridge over the southern plains/southeast will let up? -
I bet it'll be possible to take a pleasant hike in short sleeves and shorts along the hudson bay on christmas.
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Well will the turbo ridge over oklahoma finally break down?
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Ironic that the highest dew day of the summer fell in september.
