Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/25 - 1/26

[Juturna]

Just now, Neblizzard said:

Yup. Expect 8-12 inches then a flip to sleet .   This was never our storm except on the GFS 

Amazing how 8-12 inches is “not our storm.” 
 

Did ya all live through the past few winters? I swear some all timers like Nemo broke people from being able to appreciate big storms.

[SACRUS]

 

[jm1220]

Love how from 15 to 18z the NAM just absolutely books the sleet line up to Staten Island from Wilmington DE. Must be crappy rates and shredded precip. 

[Astoriaweather]

I’m thinking 5 to 8 in the city, then a flip, is a good call 

[North and West]

Yup. Expect 8-12 inches then a flip to sleet .   This was never our storm except on the GFS 

I’m sorry, but that really doesn’t sound bad at all. My NWS forecast is around a foot, give or take, with a chance of snow. Not being our storm would imply rain, right?


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[WeatherGeek2025]

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Astoriaweather said:

I’m thinking 5 to 8 in the city, then a flip, is a good call 

6-10 is my call

[Metasequoia]

4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i'd rather get 10 inches of snow and no sleet than 9 inches of snow and a bunch of sleet. I like snows that rips from beginning to the end! seems like lately that's hard to come by cause It seems like the city always gets some type of wintry mix!

 

I can't stand wintery mix!

Freezing rain isn't so much fun. However,  I think of sleet as low ratio snow that helps keep the snow pack around longer. 

[Wxbear25]

9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

All that really matters anymore is where the primary transfers to the coast. The further North that happens, the more warm air will be pumped in but also the more precip there will be. It’s a double edged sword. The rest is just noise.

The surface is a reflection of the upper-levels, not vice-versa.

The strength and positioning of that wave is what will dictate the primary/secondary strength and transition as well as the strength of mid-level features which is what is driving the warming, not the surface feature.

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

How is a foot of snow “not our storm”?

what a crazy comment 

I’m confused too… I would consider 3-6 a big letdown but not 8-12. Now I’m on record not buying 8–12. But I would consider it a good storm.

[allgame830]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Those rates right to the north of the mix would be insane… like 2-3” an hour 

[Jt17]

6-10 is my call

Nah. NAM is overdoing the sleet the last 2 runs. FYI it's basically the same as last run not worse contrary to the comments I'm seeing.


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[MJO812]

Just now, Jt17 said:

Nah. NAM is overdoing the sleet the last 2 runs. FYI it's basically the same as last run not worse contrary to the comments I'm seeing.


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Quite possible

[Neblizzard]

4 minutes ago, Juturna said:

Amazing how 8-12 inches is “not our storm.” 
 

Did ya all live through the past few winters? I swear some all timers like Nemo broke people from being able to appreciate big storms.

Because Upton is going with 10-14 inches with some mixing and the latest guidance has trended warmer.   That’s all I’m saying. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

5 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

Freezing rain isn't so much fun. However,  I think of sleet as low ratio snow that helps keep the snow pack around longer. 

that's really true i remember we had a big storm it snowed a decent amount but than it changed to sleet and man that snow stayed even in the city for like the longest it wasn't a long time ago and I do remember it was late in the season in March. So maybe some sleet is good here before hopefully we get clobbered next week  and our snowpack stays well into march lol

[jm1220]

Just now, allgame830 said:

Those rates right to the north of the mix would be insane… like 2-3” an hour 

Yep and make it all the more sad when it turns to pelting sleet. Hopefully it's wrong. Might not even make it to a warning event south of I-80/city and coast with that outcome. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

I’m confused too… I would consider 3-6 a big letdown but not 8-12. Now I’m on record not buying 8–12. But I would consider it a good storm.

he's a  and wants 24 inches cause we were all kinda expecting at least 14 or so with this!

[SACRUS]

1/24 00z NAM total QPF storm

 

Total snow / sleet (10:1)

 

 

[Snowlover11]

NAM pushes mixing north of rockland into putnam and orange county.

[WeatherGeek2025]

anybody north of Greenburgh could actually still get 14-20 inches

[psv88]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

1/24 00z NAM total QPF storm

 

Total snow / sleet (10:1)

 

 

NAM has 2” for northern Monmouth. Nah. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

Nams printing 4.9 for Central Park, I don't buy it! 

[Metasequoia]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

that's a really true i remember we had a big storm it snowed a decent amount but than it changed to sleet and man that snow stayed even in the city for like the longest it wasn't a long time ago and I do remember it was late in the season in March. So maybe some sleet is good here before hopefully we get clobbered next week  and our snowpack stays well into march lol

It was March 2017... NYC got 5 or so inches of sleet on top of a couple inches of snow. 2 inches of LQP. Lots of thundersleet... 

[EastonSN+]

The sleet does not get as far north as 18z. Sleet arrived a bit faster but did not go as far north.

[psv88]

I’m tossing the NAM. Refuse to believe central Jersey gets 2 inches. If I’m wrong I’m wrong. 

[EastonSN+]

[EastonSN+]

The NAM was a step in the right direction.

[Stormlover74]

If the nam ends up being right then whats the point of using any other model if they all suck at sniffing out warm layers? 

[psv88]

Just now, Breene said:

3 days ago: go north and we win!

2 days ago: it went north, we win!

1 day ago: i hope it stops going north now

now: i dont believe it has actually gone more north

tomorrow: ???

Nothing better to do on a Friday night than troll a weather board? Some life you must live. 

[Prue11]

Sleet is better than rain/freezing rain so if it happens so be it. Maybe we’ll get some thunder sleet