Major Hurricane Melissa - 892mb - 185mph at landfall

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

yeah but a good chunk of the country is well above sea level, so those higher gusts will mix in.  But yeah - I feel like concrete construction is more common in the Caribbean and Latin America - problem is there are plenty of people who do not live in well built structures.

The idea that we're seriously talking about gusts over 200 speaks to the exceptional power of this storm. Most people don't fully comprehend how strong that is. 

[HKY_WX]

That 50 mile wide swath of the eyewall will carve a path through the island unlike we've seen before. I bet satellite pictures in a few days will show it almost like a tornado path. Will be sad. 

[NVAwx]

Just for the posterity because I haven't seen the full statement posted yet...

"Last chance to protect your life." 

Quote

Hurricane Melissa Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
1000 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025

...CATASTROPHIC WINDS MOVING ONSHORE SOUTHERN JAMAICA...
...LAST CHANCE TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE...
...1000 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
 
THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION! TAKE 
COVER NOW! Failure to adequately shelter may result in serious 
injury, and loss of life. Residents in Jamaica that experience the 
eye should not leave their shelter as winds will rapidly increase 
within the backside of the eyewall of Melissa.

To protect yourself from wind, the best thing you can do is put as 
many walls as possible between you and the outside. An interior room 
without windows, ideally one where you can also avoid falling trees, 
is the safest place you can be in a building. You can cover yourself 
with a mattress and wear a helmet for added protection.

NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft find that Melissa continues to 
strengthen with maximum sustained winds of 185 mph (295 km/h).The 
minimum central pressure has fallen to 892 mb (26.34 inches) based 
on NOAA and Hurricane Hunter Air Force Reserve aircraft data.

 

[dbullsfan]

Land fall during the day is going to give us some remarkable footage on top of everything else and will hopefully help even just a little bit those have to go through this horrible storm. It’s already going to be terrifying, can’t imagine going through it in the dark.


.

[pazzo83]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

The idea that we're seriously talking about gusts over 200 speaks to the exceptional power of this storm. Most people don't fully comprehend how strong that is. 

i mean it's basically impossible to describe.  Maybe folks get descriptions like - it literally strips the bark off of trees, or it completely defoliates healthy trees.

[NoCORH4L]

Does Josh morgerman have a live feed

[GaWx]

Jeff piotrowski live:

 

[hawkeye_wx]

1 minute ago, NoCORH4L said:

Does Josh morgerman have a live feed

Josh doesn't do live streams.  He should have good video afterward.

[JonClaw]

Wow, she's really gunning for the Labor Day storm's landfall pressure and wind records...

[Newman]

11am update still 185mph, 892mb

[NVAwx]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025
 
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 MELISSA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL IN
JAMAICA...
...CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND STORM SURGE OCCURRING ON
THE ISLAND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 77.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SE OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...26.34 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The Government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
province of Las Tunas and a Tropical Storm Warning for the province
of Camaguey.
 
The Meteorological Service of the Bahamas has discontinued the
Hurricane Watch for the Turks and Caicos islands.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Jamaica
* Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo,
Holguin, and Las Tunas
* Southeastern and Central Bahamas
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Haiti
* Cuban province of Camaguey
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Residents in Jamaica should
remain in a safe shelter.  In the warning area in Cuba and the
Bahamas, preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.
 
Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Melissa.
Watches could be required later today or tonight.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Melissa was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 77.9 West. Melissa is
moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
later today, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Wednesday
and Thursday. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is
expected to make landfall on Jamaica during the next couple of
hours, move across southeastern Cuba early Wednesday morning, and
move across the southeastern or central Bahamas later on Wednesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher
gusts. Melissa is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected before 
Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica. Melissa is expected to reach 
Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as an extremely dangerous major 
hurricane, and it will still be a strong hurricane when it moves 
across the southeastern Bahamas.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 892 mb (26.34 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC.
 
WIND: Catastrophic hurricane-force winds are spreading over 
Jamaica within the eyewall of Melissa.  Total structural failure 
is likely near the path of Melissa, especially in higher elevation 
areas where wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and 
mountains could be up to 30 percent stronger.  Do not venture out 
in the eye as winds will rapidly increase within the backside of the 
eyewall.
 
Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in eastern Cuba
this afternoon, with hurricane conditions expected in the hurricane
warning area starting tonight into Wednesday morning. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in Haiti later today and Wednesday.
 
Hurricane conditions are expected in the southeastern and central
Bahamas on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and
hurricane conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands on
Wednesday.
 
RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches
to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 6 to 8 inches with
localized maximum to 12 inches for southern Hispaniola through
Wednesday, with storm total local maxima of 40 inches possible.
Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely.
 
For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches, with
local amounts to 25 inches, is expected into Wednesday resulting in
life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding with
numerous landslides.
 
Over the Southeast Bahamas, rain is expected to develop later today
and continue into Wednesday.  Total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is
expected to result in areas of flash flooding. For the Turks and
Caicos rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are expected.  Heavy rain
may begin to affect Bermuda Thursday night.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf
 
STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the
south coast of Jamaica today. Peak storm surge heights could reach
9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the
center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves. On the northwest coast
of Jamaica, near Montego Bay, there is the possibility of 2 to 4
feet of storm surge above ground level.
 
There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast
coast of Cuba late today or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights 
could reach 8 to 12 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the 
east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
Storm surge of 5 to 8 ft above normally dry ground is possible in
the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and 2 to 4 ft above normally 
dry ground in the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday.
 
Minor coastal flooding is expected along the coast of Haiti.
 
SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of
Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the
next day or two, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. These swells will reach the Bahamas, the Turks
and Caicos Islands, and Bermuda later this week. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
 

[SchaumburgStormer]

Damn near a complete white out the stream. 

[Jefflaw77]

Montego Bay and Falmouth on the north coast look screwed too

[mob1]

Just now, SchaumburgStormer said:

Damn near a complete white out the stream. 

That stream looks intense, and they're likely a bit east of the strongest winds. 

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Josh doesn't do live streams.  He should have good video afterward.

Man it is SO hard to do a live stream in a storm. You're in full sensory overload in these things and trying not to get hit by debris, not to mention dealing with loss of signal/service. Respect to the people that are able to get out a live stream. They earn their keep. 

[USCG RS]

As far as the buildings with concrete walls/ISO-2 builds, that will help, however, the main problem are the points of failure. In this case it will be the roof and without that lateral assistance to help the load bearing walls stay together, you risk implosion essentially. When buildings are constructed, part of the structural integrity comes from the roof tying the load bearing walls together. Combine that with the fact that the ground level pressure is so low while the winds create a potential pressure above 1000 mb inside the house due to the constraints of the winds inside such a small space and there is a strong likelihood that even the concrete wall buildings simply implode. 

[NoCORH4L]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Jeff piotrowski live:

 

Yeah he's pretty far from the eye though

[nvck]

looks like locations right on the shore are about to enter the eye.

[WEATHER53]

27 minutes ago, Scott747 said:

Not going to lie. In all these years I've never been worried about Josh. A few when he has relocated to at the last minute to some spots that weren't previously scouted.

This one I'm on edge.

Little nervous about the elevation....

I used to see Josh once a year when he first started for about 3 years.  Also remember one video particularly in a school where they located correctly as the opposite end  of the building was destroyed. Another pushing a handicapped lady through a flooded hotel lobby I think on a mattress.  Tell him Weather 53 says  be safe and well

[Picard]

19 minutes ago, MANDA said:

That's gotta be getting close - or is actually a record measurement in the Atlantic.  Unprecedented.  

[NorthHillsWx]

Eye is about to be directly over Josh. He couldn’t have positioned himself better to get the dead center of this storm 

[pazzo83]

Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

Eye is about to be directly over Josh. He couldn’t have positioned himself better to get the dead center of this storm 

dude is the GOAT

[Ace Mahomes]

check out the Treasure Beach live stream right now, dayum

[Brian D]

Prayers for the Jamaican people. Absolutely perfect storm, but when I watch the sat image, I also know death, and devastation are underway. My heart breaks for the people.  

[nvck]

either my wifi has totally dropped or the cam finally went down...

ETA: back a couple min later

[eyewall]

5 minutes ago, Ace Mahomes said:

check out the Treasure Beach live stream right now, dayum

link?

[AlexD1990]

Just now, eyewall said:

link?

 

[nvck]

Just now, eyewall said:

link?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z2HfoQ_HMfY

[Tatamy]

Topographical Map of western Jamaica

[AlexD1990]

the roar/screech of the wind on that stream is unearthly. add in the occasional crash of debris and its straight nightmare fuel.