dbullsfan

Weather channel still focusing on Tampa tonight is crazy. This thing has a better chance hitting Alabama at this point. .

I really don’t see all the continued hype regarding Tampa for this storm. I think the local Mets have it right, maybe the coast gets a little storm surge but this thing isn’t even coming close to the coast until well after passing the TB area. The biggest worry here should probably be tornados in the extreme outer bands. It still is far enough out it could take an extreme right hand turn but I don’t think there is a single reputable model predicting that at this point. I feel like last year with Ian there were at least a few outlier models predicting it coming in further south. .

Unless thing’s drastically change it will be a surge and wind event is all. For anyone more than 2-3 miles inland this will most likely be no worse than multiple storms we have had already this year. Everything points to this going further north .

I know all the focus is on the initial landfall, but how much should we start looking into the fact that this thing might loop back around after it exits the east coast? What is the likelihood we get a 2nd landfall next week? .

Sanibel Island isn’t protected by Pirates.. I kid about the pirates but there has to be a reason the TB area gets hit directly or even slightly indirectly by a Cane once every 100 years. This could be that one time, right now every indication is that it isn’t and it is well off the coast when it passes by and lands up in the peninsula. We had this conversation with Ian and at least one Hurricane every year going back for forever when the early models put TB in the cone. .

I agree, Tampa area is about as likely to just get some light rain and winds from outer bands as it is significant impacts. That being said this is going to happen quickly so hard to argue with being prepared. ….. this was supposed to be in response to the TPA closing down

I don’t know, seems like the Tampa bubble is in full effect her and this is gonna end up staying north and west .

Am I crazy to think that when that 1:30 Recon flight goes through they find Idalia has become a Hurricane. She is blowing up tonight and I’m not seeing anything that’s gonna slow that down in the next 4 hours. .

Dang Prospero, we are getting our yearly. Tampa is gonna get a landfalling Hurricane (not actually ever gonna happen) out of the way early in 2023 .

Question for everyone and forgive me if this should be in the banter thread, but. When I look at the radar on weather.com it looks like the eye is almost going NNW as it lands putting it on a track to go over Orlando or even east of Orlando. This seems to differ from the cone or most tracks, is this just the model they are using or are they projecting a jump east in the track? Or am I just misreading the radar .

Either that or some of the posters on here took over the NHC .

As long as Tampa remains in the cone the assumption should always be it will turn to the north quicker than expected. Nicole most likely doesn’t even sniff the west coast of Florida and just works her way up the center of the state. .

I can’t imagine Davis Island would do go well from a direct hit, even if it’s from a TS. The rain/surge will have bigger impacts

I will still believe it when I see it for a landfall anywhere near Tampa. It will still end up panhandle or further west.

Looks like the chances of a Tampa area landfall are fading quickly.