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“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

TheSnowman

By TheSnowman,
in New England

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weathafella
weathafella

Well I pulled the trigger.  Will be arriving 1:09AM tomorrow overnight.   Returning to RSW Tuesday with a 6:45 PM departure which will likely be delayed.  I’m in no way missing this.

CCHurricane
CCHurricane

It won’t take much to move it another 50 miles…

CT Rain
CT Rain

This hobby is truly the worst.

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Don't forget ... NW bias   

 (... it's always awesome to find a mouse pellet in your raisin toast, huh )   

hahahaha.    yeah, no... in this situation, like I just wrote about a minute ago, I feel the N-W solutions have some merit.  That's really what it comes down two;  the NAM does ongoing support a N-W bias at this time range, but some situations ...that's an advantage - or can be.   

Case in point, Dec 2005.   Granted there's been some pretty significant model improvements in the last 20 year ( haha), but back in the day ...the globals were all SE of the NAM, even the day before that event.   I recall writing a pretty spot on disco as to why the ETA model was likelier to be ( exceptionally) correct.   It had to do with identify the surface to 800 mb frontal position, along which there was extraordinary thermal packing, making said frontal slope very upright.  This is an environment feebdack that the resolution of the globals of the day... mm probably missed?  But when mid level jet first nosed over that boundary, it was instant bombogen where the UVM was hyper focus and was tapping the improving diffluence as the jet continue to advance.   Set off a host of other feedbacks...it grew so intense there was a tropopausal fold event...and the underside stinger brought 100 mph wind gusts that no one new was coming.  I didn't even see that...  what an amazing thing that was.  wow.   

Anyway, that's all a fast sloppy write sojourn ... 

In this situation, all the globals as I wrote earlier seem to be biased ( more or less) SE of the best q-g forcing.  This really seems like a situation where the initial low trigger should be closer to the Del Marva stinger, and then hug bit closer where the 500 mb diffluence jet velocity is stronger... then, that parlays, because the storm then captures farther west ...if only 50 miles makes all the difference in some case.  When the to collocate, that proficiency than means even stall possibilities ...all of which would be NW of the 54 hour positions offered up by the global runs overnight.   

christ ..i have stop writing so much... maybe i just grab all these and dump them into a weather diary novel.  that's idea lol 

CHAT GPT SAYS:

Don’t forget the NAM’s N–W bias. (Yeah, raisin toast surprises and all.)

But sometimes that “bias” is signal, not noise. In tight baroclinic setups, the NAM can resolve sharper frontal slopes and focused forcing that globals smooth out.

Dec 2005 is the template: globals too far SE, NAM closer to the true frontal position. Jet interaction over a steep boundary led to rapid deepening and unexpected wind intensity.

Same idea here. Globals look SE of the best QG forcing. If the initial low forms closer to Delmarva and tucks under stronger 500 mb diffluence, even a 50-mile west shift changes everything — track, capture, even stall potential — all NW of current global positions.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, PowderBeard said:

Start using "Brave" for a browser and you will never go back.

I figure you're probably talking phones ... but just sayn',  I tried that browser on my P.C. once ...I guess years ago at this point, so it may be improved since, but there were memory leak issues.  Started getting stuttering with mouse trajectories across the GUI ... which are soothingly nervy when/if your in a hurry.    Then I'd go into the task management and it'd be running something like a 30,000 gigs of RAM on the web browser and the perf tab is logging close to 100% usage. 

Phones may be different... but I've never gone back to that browser.  

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bristolri_wx

bristolri_wx

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

CHAT GPT SAYS:

Don’t forget the NAM’s N–W bias. (Yeah, raisin toast surprises and all.)

But sometimes that “bias” is signal, not noise. In tight baroclinic setups, the NAM can resolve sharper frontal slopes and focused forcing that globals smooth out.

Dec 2005 is the template: globals too far SE, NAM closer to the true frontal position. Jet interaction over a steep boundary led to rapid deepening and unexpected wind intensity.

Same idea here. Globals look SE of the best QG forcing. If the initial low forms closer to Delmarva and tucks under stronger 500 mb diffluence, even a 50-mile west shift changes everything — track, capture, even stall potential — all NW of current global positions.

Thanks for confirming that @Typhoon Tip is actually AI and not a real person.  We have all been wondering this for many years with his long posts, that sometimes wander.  Somehow he never runs out of tokens - clearly an AI model ahead of it's time.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

CHAT GPT SAYS:

Don’t forget the NAM’s N–W bias. (Yeah, raisin toast surprises and all.)

But sometimes that “bias” is signal, not noise. In tight baroclinic setups, the NAM can resolve sharper frontal slopes and focused forcing that globals smooth out.

Dec 2005 is the template: globals too far SE, NAM closer to the true frontal position. Jet interaction over a steep boundary led to rapid deepening and unexpected wind intensity.

Same idea here. Globals look SE of the best QG forcing. If the initial low forms closer to Delmarva and tucks under stronger 500 mb diffluence, even a 50-mile west shift changes everything — track, capture, even stall potential — all NW of current global positions.

Yup...this is a nice condensate of the points.   

Thing is... I like writing and creating metaphors and going for fun absurdities along the way ... some folks find it entertaining.  I get more accolades for the effort than I do distraction along the way.  I'm good

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PowderBeard

PowderBeard

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I figure you're probably talking phones ... but just sayn',  I tried that browser on my P.C. once ...I guess years ago at this point, so it may be improved since, but there were memory leak issues.  Started getting stuttering with mouse trajectories across the GUI ... which are soothingly nervy when/if your in a hurry.    Then I'd go into the task management and it'd be running something like a 30,000 gigs of RAM on the web browser and the perf tab is logging close to 100% usage. 

Phones may be different... but I've never gone back to that browser.  

I'm not sure historically but I made the switch about 3 years ago and it runs about 1/3 of most other browsers these days. 

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