Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[mattinpa]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Another person who is bashing the gfs . Can we see at 0z ? It has beaten the euro many times. Having the gfs ai west is nice.  Icon and rgem also shifted west.

Yep since things have trended a bit let’s see what 00z shows. We do need bigger steps from the other models now. 

[SACRUS]

 

18z GFS AI AIGFS Total QPF

 

The gfs core platform has either

- been hacked by members of the weather community
- its seeing s something no other suite sees for such an amplified phase so close  to the coast (other then yesterdays GGEM, UKMET) that other dont see ala 2010
- greatest failure inside 96 hours of recent memory

 

 

And the much to be hyped on social media and other outlets  18z GFS total QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24

 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Its too late for shifts. We need hits by tonight on at least 2 other models

Its not at all if you followed the models this winter.

[RU848789]

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

AI gfs west

 

And the cherry on top might be the AIGFS trend in precip/snow (it's cold enough).  And even though I know there's not a lot of love for the AIGFS, the fact that it's arriving at a pretty good snowfall for 95 to the coast, via a totally different model algorithm (AI vs. physics) is encouraging, meaning the GFS solution can't just be some weird data initialization or model physics error.  I guess we have to keep tracking, lol.  

 

[SACRUS]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Its not at all if you followed the models this winter.

Just this past weekend there were runs showing as much as 6-8 and even 10 inches as recent as 72/60 hours ahead of Sunday/Monday

[Mail Man]

Euro needs a big step to the west. Someone is going to have an egg on their face.

[WestBabylonWeather]

Local news 12 met leaning towards gfs solution. 

[SnowGoose69]

I'm not surprised the GFS is not caving yet, it always is stubborn til usually the final 60-72 hours or so though in the last few years its sometimes given up a bit earlier

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

I'm not surprised the GFS is not caving yet, it always is stubborn til usually the final 60-72 hours or so though in the last few years its sometimes given up a bit earlier

i think we're going to tuck and snow hard and GfS will win!

[snowman19]

6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Its too late for shifts. We need hits by tonight on at least 2 other models

Welp, I will say this with confidence, if this turns into another GFS fail, that model will be totally done and regarded as junk for a very long time in the eyes of many people….including a lot of pro mets….

[MJO812]

Ukie 

[Snowlover11]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i think we're going to tuck and snow hard and GfS will win!

Do you get sick of posting the same gibberish you weenie?

[TJW014]

11 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

18z GFS AI AIGFS Total QPF

 

The gfs core platform has either

- been hacked by members of the weather community
- its seeing s something no other suite sees for such an amplified phase so close  to the coast (other then yesterdays GGEM, UKMET) that other dont see ala 2010
- greatest failure inside 96 hours of recent memory

 

 

And the much to be hyped on social media and other outlets  18z GFS total QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24

 

 

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i think we're going to tuck and snow hard and GfS will win!

I found who hacked the GFS:

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

Do you get sick of posting the same gibberish you weenie?

no i dont do you get sick of bullying a ? i just wish the euro ai would get in line with the GFS?

[Brian5671]

15 minutes ago, Mail Man said:

Usually the GFS would of folded like a cheap tent by now.

should be new data by 0z I would think.   If it's still there then I'd be a little more interested

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i think we're going to tuck and snow hard and GfS will win!

To be fair it is due for a win.  Its been 3 winters I think since it has had a big score.  It did well for awhile there pre most recent Euro and CMC upgrade but since those 2 got upgraded 2-3 years back and its not made a hit.

[MJO812]

Ukie would have been good

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie would have been good

it doesn't go past 66 hours?

[donsutherland1]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

it doesn't go past 66 hours?

Not at 18z.

[MJO812]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

it doesn't go past 66 hours?

Not 18z

Gefs is better than 12z

[EastonSN+]

35 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

AI gfs west

That was a decent shift west.

[TJW014]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not 18z

Gefs is better than 12z

Mean is S/E. A lot of members N/W though

[WeatherGeek2025]

we need a 100 mile northwest jog and we all get a lot of snow it's possible

[EasternLI]

[mikem81]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie would have been good

How does it compare to 12z

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

How does it compare to 12z

Slightly more amped 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Got rid of some east members

[NJwx85]

The spread is crazy considering we’re under 72 hours.

[kat5hurricane]

31 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Another person who is bashing the gfs . Can we see at 0z ? It has beaten the euro many times. Having the gfs ai west is nice.  Icon and rgem also shifted west.

It's bashed for a reason, it never verifies when it's an outlier. If it pulls it off this time being an outlier I'd be beyond shocked because that would be unprecedented for this model.

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, kat5hurricane said:

It's bashed for a reason, it never verifies when it's an outlier. If it pulls it off this time being an outlier I'd be beyond shocked because that would be unprecedented for this model.

it's verified before as an outlier it has i can confirm that!