Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[SACRUS]

 

 

1/23 12z GEFS QPF mean strom

 

 

Total snow mean (10:1)

[SnoSki14]

Just now, winterwarlock said:

i mean 12-18 was a ridiculous starting point...they could have gone 8-16 or 8-14...all their pinpoints are 14 right now..what model even shows that, even the gfs 10-1 isnt

They are banking on high ratios to get it done but those rarely go more than 12-13:1

[EastonSN+]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie has a weaker primary and earlier arrival with the precip. This has to be a glitch with the dry slot over NYC.

Its probably picking up on the projected low CPK measurement 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

Yep. This storm should get us near average on the year, to somewhere between 25-30", as I am at 18" now. If we cash in later in the week and early next month, we will be on our way to our first above average season in years, 40" might be doable. 

Given the stretch coming up I’d be pretty stunned if this is our last significant snow. We probably have 1-2 more in this pattern. Hopefully we can finally get things to slow down enough for a major coastal storm again, would be pretty awesome if we can get another 970mb bomb SE of Montauk. 

[SACRUS]

 

1/23 12z UKMET Total QPF storm

 

 

Total Snow / Sleet Frz rn (10:1)

[Nibor]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Given the stretch coming up I’d be pretty stunned if this is our last significant snow. We probably have 1-2 more in this pattern. Hopefully we can finally get things to slow down enough for a major coastal storm again, would be pretty awesome if we can get another 970mb bomb SE of Montauk. 

GFS and CMC around FEB 2 

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

12z Suite

 

Total QPF / Snow/sleet Frz Rn (10:1) - NYC

SREF:  1.4 / (8.8)
NAM: 1.7 / (14.6)
RGEM:  1.1 / (7.8)
ICON:  1.2 / (8.0)
GFS:  1.4 / (12.4)
GGEM:  1.1 / (8.8)
GEFS: 1.5 / (11.6)
UKMET: 0.5 / ( 6.7)

Updated

[eduggs]

22 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Nationwide absolutely it’ll be a crippling storm. Agree-locally it’s something we’ve been getting every 1-2 years until this sucky stretch after Jan 2022 and I’d consider it disruptive but not crippling. Dec 2020-esque in my opinion which IMBY was 8”. At the very high end maybe we approach what we saw on 2/1/21 but that’s if everything works out perfectly. The first juiced clipper in Dec had 8” here but this one will have more impact since there will be more water in the snow/sleet to get to the 8”. I’m hopeful on the north shore we make it to 10” combined snow/sleet. If this major coastal storm happens next weekend that could locally be major or better. 

Locally I've seen 1 storm of this forecast magnitude locally since 2019. Interior NNJ missed out on a few coastals in recent years. There have been very very few 6" storms around these parts over the past half decade outside of higher elevations... really hoping we can bring this one home. Weekend daylight snows are the best!

[RU848789]

This is going to be one of the most impactful winter storms this country has ever seen. Here are the snow and freezing rain (ZR) maps for the US from the NBM (model blend). A foot+ of snow from Texas to Maine is insane and crippling 1"+ ice storms south of that snow for many may be even more impactful.

Also, if you look at these same maps from 3 days ago, below, you can see how much further south the big swaths of snow and ice were (when most of us were worrying about suppression) – they’ve moved northward about 150 miles, as the modeling and the actual system have evolved, but that’s not an unusual track forecast error that far out. But I’m sure it’s disappointing for the folks who are snow lovers who thought they were getting a foot of snow and who will now likely be getting up to 1” of ice.

 

 

 

 

[NJwx85]

Off topic but GFS still has the big Miller A 2/2-2/3.

[SnowGoose69]

We need to see what the 3km NAM does as we get closer in but the 12km at 12Z fits my idea that the sleet line makes it to the S shore of LI or just south and then collapses.  

[jm1220]

11 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Locally I've seen 1 storm of this forecast magnitude locally since 2019. Interior NNJ missed out on a few coastals in recent years. There have been very very few 6" storms around these parts over the past half decade outside of higher elevations... really hoping we can bring this one home. Weekend daylight snows are the best!

Didn’t 2/1/21 give you guys like 20”? But I agree the last few winters have been lousy and N NJ was unlucky a number of times when my area did well. 

[Prue11]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

where is your area ?

Central Suffolk north of LIE

[psv88]

6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

We need to see what the 3km NAM does as we get closer in but the 12km at 12Z fits my idea that the sleet line makes it to the S shore of LI or just south and then collapses.  

I definitely think most of the island mixes for 2-3 hours before a flip back. Still a full day for ticks either way, but I would bank on some sleet 

[jm1220]

11 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

This is going to be one of the most impactful winter storms this country has ever seen. Here are the snow and freezing rain (ZR) maps for the US from the NBM (model blend). A foot+ of snow from Texas to Maine is insane and crippling 1"+ ice storms south of that snow for many may be even more impactful.

Also, if you look at these same maps from 3 days ago, below, you can see how much further south the big swaths of snow and ice were (when most of us were worrying about suppression) – they’ve moved northward about 150 miles, as the modeling and the actual system have evolved, but that’s not an unusual track forecast error that far out. But I’m sure it’s disappointing for the folks who are snow lovers who thought they were getting a foot of snow and who will now likely be getting up to 1” of ice.

 

 

 

 

That stretch from Dallas/Waco to S VA will have devastating ice in some places for sure. And no power for a week or more. 

[kat5hurricane]

27 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

i mean 12-18 was a ridiculous starting point...they could have gone 8-16 or 8-14...all their pinpoints are 14 right now..what model even shows that, even the gfs 10-1 isnt

Upton did the same and I didn't get it. It's always best to start conservative then adjust upwards if needed. People see numbers like those and think it'll be a crippling storm. I know they have a tough job and they know a hell of a lot more than me but it seemed a bit irresponsible to throw out numbers that high IMO. 

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

We have to watch how it plays out on Sun AM. It's going to be a very high impact storm here regardless of how much sleet we get and I'd argue even higher impact with sleet. Sleet is very tough to move and lasts longer. It will also all freeze up into a brick after it's done. The snowpack with 9-10" and sleet or 15-16" all snow has the same water content. Every model has the initial heavy thump of snow-does it stay intact like a wall or start shredding up, if it shreds up we get sleet sooner. That being said the sleet will sooner or later get here in this type of storm, always does. 

I don't think the sleet will freeze into a brick here.  GFS temps here during the storm get no higher than 25⁰ and on the NAM 23⁰.  The smallish warm nose on both is above 800 millibars and below that falls quickly well below freezing and stays that way all the way to the surface.  If you keep a bag of ice cubes cold enough, they don't stick together.  Plus, I anticipate it will be more sleet snow mix (back and forth for a few hours) than pure sleet.

I agree with you that this is going to be a good one either way.

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I don't think the sleet will freeze into a brick here.  GFS temps here during the storm get no higher than 25⁰ and on the NAM 23⁰.  The smallish warm nose on both is above 800 millibars and below that falls quickly well below freezing and stays that way all the way to the surface.  If you keep a bag of ice cubes cold enough, they don't stick together.  Plus, I anticipate it will be more sleet snow mix (back and forth for a few hours) than pure sleet.

I agree with you that this is going to be a good one either way.

We’ll see, hopefully you’re right. If the sleet line just barely gets here or goes back and forth we have a real shot at 12”. 

[SACRUS]

 

1/23 12z Euro AI AIFS out to 30

 

 

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[SACRUS]

 

1/23 12z Euro AI AIFS

Total QPF storm:

 

 

Total Snow / Sleet  - Frz rain (10:1)

[NorthShoreWx]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Jim Cantore in NYC

Glad to hear he's still at it.

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

12z Suite

 

Total QPF / Snow/sleet Frz Rn (10:1) - NYC

SREF:  1.4 / (8.8)
NAM: 1.7 / (14.6)
RGEM:  1.1 / (7.8)
ICON:  1.2 / (8.0)
GFS:  1.4 / (12.4)
GGEM:  1.1 / (8.8)
GEFS: 1.5 / (11.6)
UKMET: 0.5 / ( 6.7)
Euro AI AIFS:  1/1 / (10.2)

Updated

[SACRUS]

 

1/23 12z Euro out to 24

 

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[SACRUS]

 

[BoulderWX]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1238 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

NJZ008>010-012>015-020-026-PAZ060-103-105-106-241100-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0001.260125T0600Z-260126T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0001.260125T0000Z-260126T1800Z/
Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern
Monmouth-Mercer-Ocean-Coastal Ocean-Berks-Western Montgomery-
Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of New Brunswick, Long Beach Island,
Perkasie, Reading, Trenton, Pottstown, Somerville, Sandy Hook,
Collegeville, Flemington, Freehold, Jackson, Morrisville,
Doylestown, Morristown, and Chalfont
1238 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow with mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations between 10 and 15 inches and ice accumulations
  around one tenth of an inch.

[SACRUS]

 

[TJW014]

WSW issued. Mt Holly still going with 10-15" here. 

[mriceyman]

There have been three this year locally. Where do you get these stats from? What exactly do you consider locally? 

Yea we had 8” in mon co in December


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