Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[SBUWX23]

Ratios are not just dependent on temperature. Snow habit makes a huge difference. Dendritic snow has the best chance for higher ratio even in a marginal thermal profile.

[Snowlover11]

No way in hell we see 20:1 ratios, Yes it will be cold but the max i see is 15:1, maybe a short period at 18:1? During the height of the storm but that’s pushing it.

[NorthShoreWx]

22 minutes ago, L.I.Pete said:

Port Jeff Station got smoked. My favorite storm besides ‘96.


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Awesome photo!  Similar scene here:

[Winterweatherlover]

11 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

let's ask some mets? is it possible to get 20:1 in a overrunning system in the beginning and half way if the system while temperatures are way below freezing? @forkyfork @SBUWX23i could be wrong i was just thinking this would be a good time to get those ratios because it's not windy, and it's very cold aloft and at the surface!

I am not really sure how ratios work to be honest as I've seen conflicting info here and in my experience they are at their best when snow is either very heavy or it's very powdery and cold but I can't think of a time when there has been sustained 20:1 ratios in this area, maybe for brief spurts?

[MANDA]

38 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the 10th percentile on the EPS is a significant event. take a breath 

Told my peeps across central and north Jersey this afternoon: 6"+ as a starting point.

[Jt17]

I’m not a Met and I don’t play one on TV, however; if we’ve got a chance at sleet, petty good bet that we don’t have 20:1 ratios. We thought this would be suppressed to the south originally, but even with that, we’d get .5 of QPF, which would mean 5-8 inches. Remember, there’s a snowstorm next week after this too.
Now we’ve got the chance that maybe either the high pressure isn’t as strong as originally thought, or the low pressure is coming closer to the coast… which will warm the air. Warmer air = lower ratios.

Just because the storm as depicted on Euro warms up toward the end doesn't mean on the onset there wouldn't be some very high ratio snows. It's still incredibly cold air entrenched.


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[jm1220]

Just now, Jt17 said:

Just because the storm as depicted on Euro warms up toward the end doesn't mean on the onset there wouldn't be some very high ratio snows. It's still incredibly cold air entrenched.


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4 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said:

Ratios are not just dependent on temperature. Snow habit makes a huge difference. Dendritic snow has the best chance for higher ratio even in a marginal thermal profile.

 

[TriPol]

4 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said:

Ratios are not just dependent on temperature. Snow habit makes a huge difference. Dendritic snow has the best chance for higher ratio even in a marginal thermal profile.

So if it’s 5 degrees outside, the ratios could be 6:1 and it’s 30 degrees outside it could be 15:1?

[Jt17]

 

Yea I understand and that doesn't change the point. The thermal profile at the start beyond just the surface would bring high ratio snows for a time even in the Euro.


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[SBUWX23]

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

So if it’s 5 degrees outside, the ratios could be 6:1 and it’s 30 degrees outside it could be 15:1?

I don't think 6:1 would happen if it's 5 outside but also the snow size would be small. The colder it is the more chance the snow is smaller, finer. It's also dependent on the height at which the snow grows. It may be 5 at surface but if it's warmer aloft it could be higher. It's not clear cut and why modeling of simple 10:1 is not the great.

[Winterweatherlover]

I know nobody seems to like them but I find the kuchera maps usually are fairly accurate about ratios.

[jm1220]

Just now, SBUWX23 said:

I don't think 6:1 would happen if it's 5 outside but also the snow size would be small. The colder it is the more chance the snow is smaller, finer. It's also dependent on the height at which the snow grows. It may be 5 at surface but if it's warmer aloft it could be higher. It's not clear cut and why modeling of simple 10:1 is not the great.

Yep I’ve seen it before where it’s been 10 degrees outside and we get tiny needle and sand flakes. 

[donsutherland1]

For reference:

Since 2000, there have been only two days with 4" or more snow and a 20:1 or above snow-liquid ratio in New York City:

January 28, 2004 4.3" snow/0.18" precipitation (the snow-liquid ratio for the entire January 27-28, 2004 storm was just below 16:1 with 10.3" snow and 0.65" precipitation)

January 23, 2005 5.3" snow/0.25" precipitation

[WeatherGeek2025]

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

For reference:

Since 2000, there have been only two days with 4" or more snow and a 20:1 or above snow-liquid ratio in New York City:

January 28, 2004 4.3" snow/0.18" precipitation (the snow-liquid ratio for the entire January 27-28, 2004 storm was just below 16:1 with 10.3" snow and 0.65" precipitation)

January 23, 2005 5.3" snow/0.25" precipitation

Don, you're the statistics man, do you happen to know ? what type of storms were they and what type of airmass (temps) we had during the storms?

[brooklynwx99]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep I’ve seen it before where it’s been 10 degrees outside and we get tiny needle and sand flakes. 

i doubt that happens with this kind of mid-level forcing moving in

[Santa Claus]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

For reference:

Since 2000, there have been only two days with 4" or more snow and a 20:1 or above snow-liquid ratio in New York City:

January 28, 2004 4.3" snow/0.18" precipitation (the snow-liquid ratio for the entire January 27-28, 2004 storm was just below 16:1 with 10.3" snow and 0.65" precipitation)

January 23, 2005 5.3" snow/0.25" precipitation

thank you donald

[donsutherland1]

7 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Don, you're the statistics man, do you happen to know what type of system those were? what type of storms were they and what type of airmass (temps) we had during the storms?

Both were clippers, if I recall correctly.

2004 event: 30-19

2005 event: 26-9

[qg_omega]

6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Both were clippers, if I recall correctly.

2004 event: 30-19

2005 event: 26-9

We had a few high ratio clippers in the old days

[Nibor]

1 hour ago, Joe4alb said:

Lets see how the models handle the additional data...

@Santa Claus where you at? Why aren’t you out there sampling with your sleigh?

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

We had a few high ratio clippers in the old days

yeah what happened to Alberta clippers seems like so long we haven't had one.

 

By the way guys, do youl know if NAM will have the new Recon information or the other 0z runs for that matter injected into their outputs?

[donsutherland1]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

yeah what happened to Alberta clippers seems like so long we haven't had one.

 

By the way guys, do youl know if NAM will have the new Recon information or the other 0z runs for that matter injected into their outputs?

It's my understanding that the data should be captured in tonight's 0z model cycle.

[Prue11]

I remember the Alberta clippers as a kid in the late 90s and early 2000s. I’d wake up to 1-4” of snow thinking school was cancelled only to have my parents say nope get your ass out of bed for school. At one point I recall getting 3-4 of em in one week

[the_other_guy]

8 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

yeah what happened to Alberta clippers seems like so long we haven't had one.

 

By the way guys, do youl know if NAM will have the new Recon information or the other 0z runs for that matter injected into their outputs?

Didnt we have a few this year?

[TriPol]

29 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

For reference:

Since 2000, there have been only two days with 4" or more snow and a 20:1 or above snow-liquid ratio in New York City:

January 28, 2004 4.3" snow/0.18" precipitation (the snow-liquid ratio for the entire January 27-28, 2004 storm was just below 16:1 with 10.3" snow and 0.65" precipitation)

January 23, 2005 5.3" snow/0.25" precipitation

So, historically, if we get the highest ratios, we get lower amount. Fantastic tradeoff.

[SACRUS]

FWiW (and probably not much)

00z NAM



 

[SACRUS]

 NAM

 

[Franklin0529]

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

FWiW (and probably not much)

00z NAM



 

Not in the amped camp.

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Didnt we have a few this year?

I believe both the December 26-27, and January 1st events were clippers.

[Blizzardo]

The Weather Channel is going all in with 12-18 for North NJ/ NYC and a long duration event. 

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, Blizzardo said:

The Weather Channel is going all in with 12-18 for North NJ/ NYC and a long duration event. 

Of course they are