larrye

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About larrye

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    KHPN
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    Tarrytown, NY

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  1. Understood. But you can't just throw away climo. You just USE climo as with any other forcasting element ... as something to factor in but with probabilities or not at 100% guarantees.
  2. Because of one event? An event where a low-pressure center basically came up the coast and took a left hook into NJ?
  3. So it would appear to me that the 00z GFS, 00z NAM, 18z GFS-Para, 18z HWRF, 18z CMC all take the center west of NYC ... while the 12z Euro and 12z UKMET take it over or east of NYC. Any guess as to who wins? :-). Has big implications in terms of which parts of NYC get lots of QPF vs. wind impacts.
  4. The way I see it, the NAM, GFS, GFS-Para, and HWRF all having the center just west of NYC with the Euro being the only one who has it NYC on east. At least as of now. I will stand corrected if someone with more modeling skills disagrees.
  5. Having checked the latest GFS, Euro, HWRF, GFS-Para ... they all look to me like they have shifted even moreso west for Tuesday. Almost looks like if this pans out, the heaviest precip may end up NYC and NW of NYC. Any mets out there who can comment?
  6. Well to me (novice), the 00z Euro and the latest UKMET along with the CMC and the 06z HWRF all seem to be west when it approaches NYC and the 12z GFS is coming closer to them. In fact, unless I'm reading it wrong ... the GFS-para would now seem to be the outlier taking it a little further east.
  7. I'm not a Met, but I'm guessing that their process or policy is such that they issue a Warning for all areas where the probability is above 0%. Because 3% is still not zero and what IF it decides to beat the odds and end up trending far enough west that they experience hurricane force winds at Boca?
  8. What of the southwesterly shear that is forecast to interact with Isaias over the next couple of days?
  9. Everyone still laughing at the GFS-Para? :-)
  10. Used to be that way when NASA was running the show. Not sure how they are returning with Musk in charge.
  11. Also seems to me that the 12z GFS has gone closer to the Euro ... putting it into the GOM by 165 hours (although crossing FL while the Euro has it through the FL Straits).
  12. I was gonna say that the 06z GFS seems to lose it, when it begins to recurve in the western Atlantic no?
  13. Thanks. Nice to know that there is someone here that encourages discussion and questions.