Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the high is close to being perfect. i am not worried

when this poster gets serious, i pay attention; i remember this quote from Jan 2016; "this is a storm for the ages.." 

[forkyfork]

8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah but one that could maximize over our region and dump 2-4/per hour rates for a few hours and us close to a foot of snow.  

also the dgz runs from the surface to near 500mb with a ton of moisture slamming into it

 

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

when this poster gets serious, i pay attention; i remember this quote from Jan 2016; "this is a storm for the ages.." 

Same

[mriceyman]

Forky in the house.. game on


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[WeatherGeek2025]

icon 12z is a big hit

[Wannabehippie]

32 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This looks great.  Let's get Namd!

King NAM?

[SACRUS]

 

[jm1220]

30 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

A glorified SWFE

If we get 12”+ from heavy dumping snow on the front end and an hour of some sleet at the end I don’t think anybody would complain and if you do you need help. Like I said before our bigger 2020-21 storms mixed at the end. 

[MJO812]

Icon

[SACRUS]

 

ICOn 12z Total QPF storm

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

12Z Total QPF (Storm)  NYC 

ICON: 0.9 - 1.1
GFS: 1.1 - 1.3
GFS AI AIGFS: .09 - 1.1
GGEM: 1.1  (Partial sleet)
GEFS: 0.7 - 0.8
UKMET: 1.1 (some sleet)
 

[jdj5211]

Icon Kuchera…half of NJ misses out on big snows




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[hooralph]

9 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

In case anyone isn't reading closely - that is only through 7 AM Sunday...

[hooralph]

I think Don and Forky both buying is the new EE rule (if you know, you know).

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

Icon Kuchera…half of NJ misses out on big snows




.

People need to stop using those maps and look at soundings to see if there are good chances for high ratios. If in doubt use 10-1. You want a saturated -12 to -18C layer and strong lift. Surface temps don’t determine ratios if you’re below freezing. 

[BoulderWX]

5 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

Icon Kuchera…half of NJ misses out on big snows




.

7-10" isnt anything to sneeze at - I think they'd be thrilled, I would be

[BoulderWX]

Just now, jm1220 said:

People need to stop using those maps and look at soundings to see if there are good chances for high ratios. If in doubt use 10-1. You want a saturated -12 to -18C layer and strong lift. Surface temps don’t determine ratios if you’re below freezing. 

I've tried... people like the pretty maps! 

[forkyfork]

it's been so long since we've had this

[NJwx85]

The general rule of thumb is that clown maps are for clowns. They aren’t useful for making serious weather forecasts. They don’t account for a lot of things. The short term models like the HRRR are useful for picking up banding or mixing issues. 
 

You have in this case a raging jet stream slamming into a brick wall of dense, dry arctic air. It gonna snow, a lot.

[weathermedic]

From Ryan Maue on X:

 

We can partition the model output by how much "snow" will fall -- and then apply a "snow to liquid" ratio (SLR) which is typically 10:1 at temperatures around freezing. But this snow will be falling in frigid air 8°F to 18°F so SLR > 15:1 or 18:1 Do the math: 1.4" QPF x 18:1

[rclab]

34 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

when this poster gets serious, i pay attention; i remember this quote from Jan 2016; "this is a storm for the ages.." 

 

34 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

also the dgz runs from the surface to near 500mb with a ton of moisture slamming into it

 

forky, when serious, reminds me of the vintage E F Hutton commercials. As always ….

 

[North and West]

Icon Kuchera…half of NJ misses out on big snows




.

But that’s the part we don’t care about, right?




.

[greenmtnwx]

8 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

it's been so long since we've had this

Reminds me of a lighter version of Valentines 2007 setup. Models 4-5 days out had a MidAtlantic bullseye only to result in heaviest snows in NE and a ton of sleet in MidAtlantic up to NYC. When you see that heart shaped CAD signature often indicates a pretty strong warm push aloft. Just depends how far north it gets.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

20 minutes ago, jdj5211 said:

Icon Kuchera…half of NJ misses out on big snows




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For Southern New Jersey that's a big snow. It's not like we're talking about southern New York. 

[Stormlover74]

Gfs looks stellar

[WeatherGeek2025]

GFS loading....

any PBP volunteers?

[MANDA]

Modeling through 06Z and ICON at 12Z so far have been pretty steady with QPF of between .7" and 1.1".  Be happy. Be ecstatic with that right now.  Be happy. Be ecstatic with 10:1 - 12:1 ratios.  Consider anything above 12:1 as gravy *IF* it happens.  To assume at this point 15:1 or 20:1 is just foolish. 

[MJO812]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs looks stellar

Looks beautiful.  Long duration.

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs looks stellar

that's a big storm

[Nibor]

6 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

For Southern New Jersey that's a big snow. It's not like we're talking about southern New York. 

Damn, you just lil bro'd South Jersey.