Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/25 - 1/26

[MJO812]

Jim Cantore in NYC

[winterwarlock]

when will Mt Holly cave if at all

[jimbo073]

22 minutes ago, David-LI said:

Wrap around snow on the GFS, still snowing at 1 pm on Monday.

Wrap around always overdone

 

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

i find lee goldberg and the guy on news 12 pretty good. no one is perfect. but news 12 was so good during ida i gained a lot of respect for them.

is 1010 WINS  AM News still saying the storm will miss to the south like they were earlier ?

[JonClaw]

NYCPS just got the go-ahead to work remote on Monday 

[Nibor]

[MJO812]

Ukie has a weaker primary and earlier arrival with the precip. This has to be a glitch with the dry slot over NYC.

[LVblizzard]

Just now, Nibor said:

Notice the trend of the weaker primary…that may end up making the difference for a lot of people.

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yea i don't think anyone on long island should be expecting 14" of snow...8-12" total snow and sleet is a good forecast, and its in our WSW. 

This will be a MECS with major impacts, largely because it will be so cold. But, this is not a record setting storm by any means. Just a major, high impact storm to enjoy on a Sunday. That is what this has always been. Setting your expectations higher is not realistic. 

Nationwide absolutely it’ll be a crippling storm. Agree-locally it’s something we’ve been getting every 1-2 years until this sucky stretch after Jan 2022 and I’d consider it disruptive but not crippling. Dec 2020-esque in my opinion which IMBY was 8”. At the very high end maybe we approach what we saw on 2/1/21 but that’s if everything works out perfectly. The first juiced clipper in Dec had 8” here but this one will have more impact since there will be more water in the snow/sleet to get to the 8”. I’m hopeful on the north shore we make it to 10” combined snow/sleet. If this major coastal storm happens next weekend that could locally be major or better. 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie has a weaker primary and earlier arrival with the precip. This has to be a glitch with the dry slot over NYC.

I wouldn’t worry about random dry holes that show up like these. 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie has a weaker primary and earlier arrival with the precip. This has to be a glitch with the dry slot over NYC.

Lol like 3 straight runs but the ukie does these weird things sometimes

[SleetStormNJ]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie has a weaker primary and earlier arrival with the precip. This has to be a glitch with the dry slot over NYC.

 

LOL - it's treating western Long Island as if it is an active volcanic mountain range.

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, SleetStormNJ said:

 

LOL - it's treating western Long Island as if it is an active volcanic mountain range.

that is weird and it extends it west into SI and eastern Middlesex County/Union  NJ

[CentralNJSnowman]

6 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

when will Mt Holly cave if at all

Winter Storm Watch still has me in 12-17 inches.  Other than the GFS, basically nothing has shown that in the past couple of days...models show maybe 6-12 if you trust Kuchera, 4-10 if you don't

FWIW, I don't think that's COMPLETELY impossible, but 12 has to be something like 85th-90th percentile for me and 17 is like 98th percentile

[donsutherland1]

7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

is 1010 WINS  AM News still saying the storm will miss to the south like they were earlier ?

Their Accuweather forecast has 4"-8" for NYC.

[weatherpruf]

7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

is 1010 WINS  AM News still saying the storm will miss to the south like they were earlier ?

what? i've not heard that one.....wnyc reported 12-20 for some spots and maybe less than a foot for the city and nearby, with changes possible. pretty fair forecast.

[WeatherGeek2025]

39 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I don't have and don't want an X account - can't you start a thread here ?

Snow contest thread. good luck to everybody

 

 

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, CentralNJSnowman said:

Winter Storm Watch still has me in 12-17 inches.  Other than the GFS, basically nothing has shown that in the past couple of days...models show maybe 6-12 if you trust Kuchera, 4-10 if you don't

FWIW, I don't think that's COMPLETELY impossible, but 12 has to be something like 85th-90th percentile for me and 17 is like 98th percentile

their justification in march 2017 was that if they dropped amounts people would not respect the sleet and go out and get hurt.

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Their Accuweather forecast has 4"-8" for NYC.

probably taking into account the city environment itself and the traditionally low snow measurements in CP.

[SnoSki14]

12 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

when will Mt Holly cave if at all

They'll probably go 8-12 when warnings come out 

[jlauderdal]

Winter Storm Watch still has me in 12-17 inches.  Other than the GFS, basically nothing has shown that in the past couple of days...models show maybe 6-12 if you trust Kuchera, 4-10 if you don't
FWIW, I don't think that's COMPLETELY impossible, but 12 has to be something like 85th-90th percentile for me and 17 is like 98th percentile

Don't trust kuchera, ratios are higher in this setup

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

what? i've not heard that one.....wnyc reported 12-20 for some spots and maybe less than a foot for the city and nearby, with changes possible. pretty fair forecast.

That was an old forecast, I believe from Wednesday. Since yesterday, they've been at 4"-8".

[CentralNJSnowman]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

their justification in march 2017 was that if they dropped amounts people would not respect the sleet and go out and get hurt.

Yeah, I assume that this is why they often overdo snow amounts and are slow to reduce amounts

And I get that they have a tough job to do with a lot of people tending to ignore taking precautions

That said, I think if you consistently overdo things, everyone learns to ignore you.  You kind of need to give people credit for being able to understand some nuance...even if a lot of people may or may not be capable of it.  Ultimately your job is to tell the truth...not try to trick people into complying

[winterwarlock]

10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I wouldn’t worry about random dry holes that show up like these. 

hasnt this shown up on a few other models too

[WeatherGeek2025]

13 minutes ago, Nibor said:

cmc all snow for the city?

[psv88]

10 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Nationwide absolutely it’ll be a crippling storm. Agree-locally it’s something we’ve been getting every 1-2 years until this sucky stretch after Jan 2022 and I’d consider it disruptive but not crippling. Dec 2020-esque in my opinion which IMBY was 8”. At the very high end maybe we approach what we saw on 2/1/21 but that’s if everything works out perfectly. The first juiced clipper in Dec had 8” here but this one will have more impact since there will be more water in the snow/sleet to get to the 8”. I’m hopeful on the north shore we make it to 10” combined snow/sleet. If this major coastal storm happens next weekend that could locally be major or better. 

Yep. This storm should get us near average on the year, to somewhere between 25-30", as I am at 18" now. If we cash in later in the week and early next month, we will be on our way to our first above average season in years, 40" might be doable. 

[MarcmmKU]

4 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

probably taking into account the city environment itself and the traditionally low snow measurements in CP.

not a factor for this one. no uhi when the temps are in the teens lol. limiting factor will be the sleet, which affects everyone south of the city as well.

[winterwarlock]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

They'll probably go 8-12 when warnings come out 

i mean 12-18 was a ridiculous starting point...they could have gone 8-16 or 8-14...all their pinpoints are 14 right now..what model even shows that, even the gfs 10-1 isnt

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, jlauderdal said:

7 minutes ago, CentralNJSnowman said:

Winter Storm Watch still has me in 12-17 inches.  Other than the GFS, basically nothing has shown that in the past couple of days...models show maybe 6-12 if you trust Kuchera, 4-10 if you don't
FWIW, I don't think that's COMPLETELY impossible, but 12 has to be something like 85th-90th percentile for me and 17 is like 98th percentile

Don't trust kuchera, ratios are higher in this setup

Kuchera is usually inflated. Ratios are determined by snow growth when temps are below freezing. It could be zero, 20 or 30 and ratios could be the same if snow growth is good or putrid. 

[Nibor]

1 minute ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

cmc all snow for the city?

No there's definitely sleet