January 24-25: Miracle or Mirage

[Solution Man]

3 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

Did the ICON actually sort of back the time up to a little earlier compared to before (and to other models)?  Seems that for awhile at least this was trending to more a Sunday-Sunday night (and possibly into Monday) thing.

Appears to be late Saturday evening on ICON

[bncho]

Baja blast low less closed off hr 51

[Bob Chill]

Gfs is coming around. Closed low unclosing and ns is digging further back in BC. Should be a better run (not saying much lol)

[stormtracker]

Wave is  open and moving more easter

[Solution Man]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Wave is  open and moving more easter

Bring us home 

[bncho]

Phases much earlier than any GFS run, even the great 6z and 0z

[LP08]

Aigfs with a nice bump north

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Aigfs with a nice bump north

Any precip/snow maps available?

ETA:  Just checked it quickly on TT, which is finally out that far and yeah, that low moves more northeast up the coast rather than straight east offshore.  And the precip looks greater...notably so.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z AI GFS compared to 12Z.

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

(Ahem...@ravensrule???)  OK, sorry for the banter, but couldn't resist!  But saying something on topic, yeah it hopefully is a good sign with that closed low "opening" a bit and perhaps pushing more east?

This run is going to be much better than 12z, great trend

[csnavywx]

AI-GFS considerably north of 12Z run. ~0.8 QPF for DC; ~1.1 for SoMD.

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Seems like it which is always a great sign. I’m getting pretty excited, but still holding back expectations until 00z Thursday. Like the trends so far. 

Early Thursday also my mental mark on the wall 

[bncho]

Just now, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z AI GFS compared to 12Z.

holy shit that's a huge bump north, probably would be 12" of snow in DC via Kuchera

[stormtracker]

It's coming out much more than 12z...and is in line with other guidance lookswise

[stormtracker]

lol, looks nothing like 12z at h5

[TSSN+]

Just now, stormtracker said:

lol, looks nothing like 12z at h5

Thus why we never really should pay attention too much to this model. Maybe only Gefs is worth a look. 

[Scraff]

I’m Ralph Wigguming over here. Bring it! @stormtracker

[stormtracker]

Now let's see if it translates down the line.  GFS is liable to still fuck this up

[DC2Winston]

I hope not banter-ish but could someone describe in basic terms how the NC Piedmont AND DC areas score Warning+ criteria snow and minimal mixing? TY.


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[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z AI GFS compared to 12Z.

What an outstanding model...:)

[NorthArlington101]

GFS puts some light stuff over the area by Saturday morning

[Ephesians2]

Healthier precip shield at 84...

[nw baltimore wx]

Looking like an earlier start time too.  Glad to see the delayed trend ceasing for at least one run.

[soadforecasterx]

Here we go

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

AI-GFS considerably north of 12Z run. ~0.8 QPF for DC; ~1.1 for SoMD.

Absolutely...this is through 06Z Monday...18Z on top, 12Z on bottom:

(ETA:  Ninja'd by @Weather Will, and his graphics are better than the TT ones!)

[Jebman]

Just now, DC2Winston said:

I hope not banter-ish but could someone describe in basic terms how the NC Piedmont AND DC areas score Warning+ criteria snow and minimal mixing? TY.


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Strength of the cold air, for one thing.

[SnowenOutThere]

14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

 

What has stuck out to me today is that there seem to be a pretty wide range of phasing scenarios that still give us a major storm. GFS skunked us because the northern wave was weak and the southern wave didn’t eject and there was no phasing. Seemingly any other combination of shortwave options is giving us SOMETHING. That to me is a major confidence booster that we’re not relying on perfect phasing or timing to get a snow.

Like I said in my yesterday analysis we just need that first phase out west to get the SW moving east and were golden for a major snowstorm somewhere over the east coast. Speaking of which the GFS will be coming back to the fold after its 12z adventures 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, soadforecasterx said:

Here we go

That could end up with a G… or an F… downstream if the gfs doesn’t f this up. 

[LeesburgWx]

2 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said:

Here we go

This looks soooo much better. Bring it home!

[Its a Breeze]

3 minutes ago, DC2Winston said:

I hope not banter-ish but could someone describe in basic terms how the NC Piedmont AND DC areas score Warning+ criteria snow and minimal mixing? TY.


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Being stuck in the teens certainly helps.