3/16/26 Severe Weather Event Thread (Moderate Risk) | Latest: 15% TOR, 60% WIND, 5% HAIL

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, IronTy said:

I got an idea.  If you're excited about severe weather then maybe don't start a thread about a discrete threat.  We all know that's the fastest way to deep-six a snowstorm, no reason severe should be any different. 

We don't get a setup like this often. The separate thread was worthwhile, as even during a fail mode like this we can look back and use the information to diagnose what went right and wrong. Too many people whine in here. Damage assessment crews are out right now, and we're still fielding some reports that are delayed as folks come home from work. 

[CAPE]

What a complete nothingburger. The decision to close schools early was questionable regardless. I mean, even in a worst case scenario in these parts, we are taking a few tornados over a very broad area.

Anyway, a tenth of an inch of rain here lol. Didn't even sniff a garden variety storm and minimal wind with forecasts of 40+ mph gusts. Not mad at all.

[dailylurker]

I find it rather funny how many people on social media are disappointed their wasn't any severe or tornadoes. There's thousands of people sitting in traffic right now looking at the sky angry because socal media promised a wedge. Morbid lol

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

What a complete nothingburger. The decision to close schools early was questionable regardless. I mean, even in a worst case scenario in these parts, we are taking a few tornados over a very broad area.

Anyway, a tenth of an inch of rain here lol. Didn't even sniff a garden variety storm and minimal wind with forecasts of 40+ mph gusts. Not mad at all.

Closing for severe whatsoever is questionable. It’s too unpredictable.   Whatever happens is over quick and if there’s a warning at dismissal you can just hold for 30 min.  

[SnowenOutThere]

Results from my first ever (severe) storm chase! Good learning experience even if I didn't get to see anything warned (tornado or thunderstorm). Was some low level rotation but fell apart quickly and clearly had no momentum to do anything. Though, the flowers were pretty, and VA pediment is beautiful as always. 

 

 

[aldie 22]

Changed to snow at my sister's house in Ohio across from Huntington...

[SolidIcewx]

5 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I find it rather funny how many people on social media are disappointed their wasn't any severe or tornadoes. There's thousands of people sitting in traffic right now looking at the sky angry because socal media promised a wedge. Morbid lol

Thats why it blows my mind the average person puts so much faith into social media. I had co workers all day say “well on facebook and twitter they said this” drives me nuts sometimes honestly. 

[Kmlwx]

11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We don't get a setup like this often. The separate thread was worthwhile, as even during a fail mode like this we can look back and use the information to diagnose what went right and wrong. Too many people whine in here. Damage assessment crews are out right now, and we're still fielding some reports that are delayed as folks come home from work. 

I also fought the separate thread for days. Finally gave into it...

[clskinsfan]

12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The decision to close schools early was questionable regardless

Early? Winchester City schools closed for the entire day for a 30 minute rain shower.

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Changed to snow at my sister's house in Ohio across from Huntington...

This might end up the most impressive part of the storm for us. 

[IronTy]

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Early? Winchester City schools closed for the entire day for a 30 minute rain shower.

Kids probably all got a severe weather trophy to go along with it as well. 

[aldie 22]

Winds are kicking up out here still warm but down about 4 degrees 

[IronTy]

One thing I will take serious because we actually do well at it around here so I'm not expecting a fail - cold and windy.  I'm gonna get my wood stove going now so it's ahead of the curve.  

[Warm Nose]

That line with the front is starting to pop over Cumberland

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Early? Winchester City schools closed for the entire day for a 30 minute rain shower.

It wasn’t even windy here.  Did get to leave work early.  Win for me.  Can’t wait for November. Start over 

[MillvilleWx]

I think the thread was fine. It wasn’t until last night where things started to rapidly deteriorate for the setup with all the discrete crap over the area prior to the fropa. I mentioned last night that one of the keys to this setup was a a limited cap and better solar isolation was necessary in order to get the better thermodynamic posture that could entice better convective magnitudes. We often see these precursor shortwaves ride ahead of the mean trough and overturn the environment to a point it’s hard to recover. 
 

The issue with the decision making processes is they have to be made well ahead of time to make sure it logistically goes well. School delays, cancelations, early-dismissals need to be known well in advance. Well, it wasn’t until we started to see the, “Whites of its eyes”, before we could see the failure on the table. Decision was made, so if it fails, you have to live with the decision. I think the one decision that blew my mind was the last second one by OPM for, “Everyone out by 2PM”….That made no sense considering what was unfolding. Not my decision, but opinions are like assholes, everyone has one, including myself. 
 

Rest assured, this will give meteorologists in the area another black eye I’m sure which is just dandy. I fear the day something truly nasty does happen severe wise and there will be public distrust from, “Boy who cried wolf” syndrome. I didn’t agree with the MDT from SPC up this way for my own personal reasons looking at guidance, but most of the ingredients were there for an enhanced risk. We fell one true ingredient short of that threat, so it ended up being more of a SLGT risk with tonight’s wind threat still to come. 
 

Off my soap box and time to get ready for night 5/7. Will be watching the fropa as that will be the main show. 

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I think the thread was fine. It wasn’t until last night where things started to rapidly deteriorate for the setup with all the discrete crap over the area prior to the fropa. I mentioned last night that one of the keys to this setup was a a limited cap and better solar isolation was necessary in order to get the better thermodynamic posture that could entice better convective magnitudes. We often see these precursor shortwaves ride ahead of the mean trough and overturn the environment to a point it’s hard to recover. 
 

The issue with the decision making processes is they have to be made well ahead of time to make sure it logistically goes well. School delays, cancelations, early-dismissals need to be known well in advance. Well, it wasn’t until we started to see the, “Whites of its eyes”, before we could see the failure on the table. Decision was made, so if it fails, you have to live with the decision. I think the one decision that blew my mind was the last second one by OPM for, “Everyone out by 2PM”….That made no sense considering what was unfolding. Not my decision, but opinions are like assholes, everyone has one, including myself. 
 

Rest assured, this will give meteorologists in the area another black eye I’m sure which is just dandy. I fear the day something truly nasty does happen severe wise and there will be public distrust from, “Boy who cried wolf” syndrome. I didn’t agree with the MDT from SPC up this way for my own personal reasons looking at guidance, but most of the ingredients were there for an enhanced risk. We fell one true ingredient short of that threat, so it ended up being more of a SLGT risk with tonight’s wind threat still to come. 
 

Off my soap box and time to get ready for night 5/7. Will be watching the fropa as that will be the main show. 

MDEM having a 5pm call with NWS to determine if i eat popeyes tonight or if my wife comes home early

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I think the thread was fine. It wasn’t until last night where things started to rapidly deteriorate for the setup with all the discrete crap over the area prior to the fropa. I mentioned last night that one of the keys to this setup was a a limited cap and better solar isolation was necessary in order to get the better thermodynamic posture that could entice better convective magnitudes. We often see these precursor shortwaves ride ahead of the mean trough and overturn the environment to a point it’s hard to recover. 
 

The issue with the decision making processes is they have to be made well ahead of time to make sure it logistically goes well. School delays, cancelations, early-dismissals need to be known well in advance. Well, it wasn’t until we started to see the, “Whites of its eyes”, before we could see the failure on the table. Decision was made, so if it fails, you have to live with the decision. I think the one decision that blew my mind was the last second one by OPM for, “Everyone out by 2PM”….That made no sense considering what was unfolding. Not my decision, but opinions are like assholes, everyone has one, including myself. 
 

Rest assured, this will give meteorologists in the area another black eye I’m sure which is just dandy. I fear the day something truly nasty does happen severe wise and there will be public distrust from, “Boy who cried wolf” syndrome. I didn’t agree with the MDT from SPC up this way for my own personal reasons looking at guidance, but most of the ingredients were there for an enhanced risk. We fell one true ingredient short of that threat, so it ended up being more of a SLGT risk with tonight’s wind threat still to come. 
 

Off my soap box and time to get ready for night 5/7. Will be watching the fropa as that will be the main show. 

OPM got raked over the coals after the Jan. 26, 2011 snow event when they put an early dismissal out but folks waited until the last minute to leave. Now there's a "everybody out b [insert time here] rule. But yea, waiting that long to dismiss was kind of weird.

[Bob Chill]

Line is still to my west but front running rain has broken out and it's bringing wind down with it. Has to be gusting low 40s. You can hear the roar in the distance before the gusts roll through. Still out of the south but Roanoke has switched to westerly and gusting high 30s.  This is better than both of the 2 lines that moved through earlier. 

[TSSN+]

31 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I find it rather funny how many people on social media are disappointed their wasn't any severe or tornadoes. There's thousands of people sitting in traffic right now looking at the sky angry because socal media promised a wedge. Morbid lol

If this front line doesn’t blow off my trash can lid, I’m going to riot. 

[paulythegun]

Busts happen. There's nothing to learn here. The important thing is that we keep posting through it. Always

[WEATHER53]

54 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Not sure if this is what you're referring to, but absent surprise/late developing events, local forecast offices in areas with such high population density don't have the luxury to wait a few hours prior to issuing watches, guidance, etc. There's a ton of coordination that happens behind the scenes that goes into this stuff.

That was a nice little chat but thunderstorms or tornados can’t be pinned down the night before like they were doing last night. If they are dutiful then everyone involved is on watch and ready and by 9:10am it’s easy to spot what’s going in snd activate, or not, a 1-2pm early dismissal 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

Busts happen. There's nothing to learn here. The important thing is that we keep posting through it. Always

Time to switch over to the mid range thread and join me for the one last snowstorm on the Euro AI.  Rock solid.  204 hours out.  Imma bring it on home.

[mappy]

@Eskimo Joe 

friend on FB shared this, road flooding Bond Road/West Liberty Road, Parkton. Looks like Deer Creek overflowed its banks 

[George BM]

1 hour ago, Dendritious said:

I was in a school once that had a tornado warning right at dismissal. It was awful- busses and a line of cars stuck outside, I think some of the parents & bus drivers were rushed into the office- another teacher and I had a bunch of kids of mixed ages in their spots in an interior room- duck and cover- then the power went out. Total black in that room for at least a half hour. Kids were FREAKED OUT. 

Could this have been the June 4, 2008 event?

[wxdude64]

Well, rain is turning to snow here, lol. Currently 37.7/33.1 with NW wind 11 gusting to 30 mph. Temp has dropped 22 degrees in 90 minutes. 

[Bob Chill]

Under a warning for the squall line moving through but it's not severe. Just heavy rain and some typical gusts. No lightning either. 3 warnings in one day lol but none verified in my yard. Which is completely fine with me. I have enough work to do without adding to it 

[Amped]

Seeing some 20f temp drops in the last hour east of Cumberland.

[87storms]

Seems like there’s still one more line of showers/storms to go thru around 8ish.

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Seems like there’s still one more line of showers/storms to go thru around 8ish.

Yes. I have a wind advisory now. Gusts up to 55 possible with the line