The Allsnow Blizzard of 2026

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, oceanctyguy said:

Interesting how essentially every model has consistently had that Monmouth/Ocean county jackpot for a few days now. 

Might be very Boxing Day 2010-esque how a death band sets up over NJ. 

[David-LI]

 

[nycsnow]

[wthrmn654]

Not jim Cantore in Montauk right now other guy is though maybe Jim will be somewhere else. 

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, Jt17 said:

Yep and best banding will set up northwest of it most likely.


.

I agree. HRRR has ticked up max amounts vs 18z. Really maximizes impacts over our region. SNE gets the occluded version 

[donsutherland1]

40 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Nws says they never had a snowfall over 20 inches this late in the season before.

Yes. The latest was the Blizzard of 1983 (2/11-12/1983).

[Mail Man]

Bullseye right over me. Big day tomorrow.

[steve392]

52 minutes ago, David-LI said:

according to NAM 3k it could start as early as 8 am in nyc and LI

Will be heading to stores earlier then I wanted.  

[David-LI]

1 minute ago, steve392 said:

Will be heading to stores earlier then I wanted.  

if you want to avoid the crowds sure, but it should be ok to drive until the afternoon, it starts early but it cranks up in the afternoon/evening

[David-LI]

5 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

very high chance some of us will loser power

[Metasequoia]

Does anyone have the latest NBM?

[Stormlover74]

2am to 8am Monday will be nuts. Whiteout conditions with possible thunder and lightning

[Jersey_Snowhole]

3 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

Does anyone have the latest NBM?

 

[wthrmn654]

Glad I installed a standby generator in 2016 agreed my house was built.  Smartest investment anyone should do

[Tatamy]

31 minutes ago, MANDA said:

The January event ticked upwards right up until the event was underway.  Went into it thinking about 1” or a little more of liquid and ended up with 1.5”.

Totally different setup between this and that of course but it got wetter right up until the event.  

There’s a lot of people that don’t understand how different this storm will be as modeled when compared to other coastal storms that provided a lot of snow to the area.  I am telling family out on LI to think of this as a hurricane that brings snow.  The modeled intensity speaks for itself.  I also introduced them to a new word for their vocabulary- Bombogenesis.  The map below with the expected winds off the latest HRRR run speaks for itself.  And yes it does have an eye.

 

[wthrmn654]

1 minute ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

 

That's forky verified numbers right there.

[SACRUS]

2/21 21z SREF 

Total QPF mean 2/22-2/23-24




Snow 10:1







 

[Jt17]

That's forky verified numbers right there.

Looks like it includes snow next week but still, crazy.


.

[wthrmn654]

Reynolds wolf in Montauk, Jim cantore in atleast nyc for now.

[donsutherland1]

6 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

Does anyone have the latest NBM?

Here’s the 0z NBM (v.5.0):

[SACRUS]

2/22 00z Summary

Total QPF NYC
/
Total 10:1 Snow

 

 

SREF mean: 2.2 /  21
NAM: 2.8 / 27.5
NAM 3k: 2.0 / 19.5
ICON: 1.4 / 13.5
RGEM: 1.3 / 13.3
GFS: 1.6 / 16.7
GFS AI AIGFS: 1.4 / 13.6
GGEM: 1.5 / 13.8
GEFS: 1.7 / 17
UKMET: 1.2 / 11

[Metasequoia]

3 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

 

Thanks! That's almost obscene. I like it. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

4 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

There’s a lot of people that don’t understand how different this storm will be as modeled when compared to other coastal storms that provided a lot of snow to the area.  I am telling family out on LI to think of this as a hurricane that brings snow.  The modeled intensity speaks for itself.  I also introduced them to a new word for their vocabulary- Bombogenesis.  The map below with the expected winds off the latest HRRR run speaks for itself.  And yes it does have an eye.

 

I agree this is like a hurricane CAT 2 with snow

[oceanctyguy]

3 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

That's forky verified numbers right they're! 

 

 

 

4 minutes ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

 

This goes through 3/5. Maybe more than one event included in these totals?

[SACRUS]

What it is: The National Blend of Models (NBM) is NOAA/NWS’s statistically post-processed blend that combines dozens of deterministic and ensemble models into a single, calibrated forecast grid used operationally across the U.S.

Models included: Core inputs typically include GFS, GEFS, ECMWF (Euro), ECMWF ensembles, NAM (12 km & 3 km), HRRR, RAP, CMC/GEM, UKMET, and select regional ensembles (availability varies by cycle and variable).

Weighting approach: Dynamic, variable-specific weighting is applied—models are weighted differently by forecast hour, parameter (QPF, snow, wind, temp), season, region, and recent skill, rather than a fixed average.

Post-processing & bias correction: Raw model output is statistically bias-corrected, smoothed, and calibrated using historical verification, climatology, and consistency checks to reduce noise, outliers, and known model biases.

Operational output: Produces probabilistic and deterministic fields (means, percentiles, PoPs, snowfall ranges) and serves as the baseline guidance for NWS forecast grids, with human forecasters adjusting for mesoscale and event-specific factors.

[nycsnow]

[Mail Man]

God damn the Nam is tucked

[wthrmn654]

I think the sites starting to crash response time is lagging and getting slower and slower..... 

[MJO812]

Just now, Mail Man said:

God damn the Nam is tucked

Bombs away

 

[brooklynwx99]

lord