Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[Tatamy]

3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Ukmet slaps us with 10-15”+ before a flip at the tail end.

There’s actually a burst of snow at the end.

[Franklin0529]

I have a hard time buying the CMC progression with that cold dome overhead. Ukie smashes us with a foot Plus all snow 

[Snowlover11]

Just now, Tatamy said:

There’s actually a burst of snow at the end.

We dont usually do well with tail end/wrap around snows. Its usually a dump followed by lighter precip mix and shutting off.

[MANDA]

28 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The Canadian is NOT a good model and I wouldn’t be concerned with it at all unless it started moving back towards a more suppressed look. It’s over amplifying the trough and not handeling the airmass to the North well.

Canadian skill scores are notably higher than the GFS.  I’d keep the Canadian option on the table for the moment.  Let’s what the UKIE AND EURO have to add shortly.  GFS skill scores are at the bottom of the pack.

[Astoriaweather]

27 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Big storms like this tend to shove the artic high away, not saying this is the case but it does throw up a red flag. We have seen it in the past.

I wasn't living in NY then but in DC. But wasn't there a storm in January 2014 that many models suggested would be primarily snow but then at the end it transitioned into a major sleet storm for East Coast cities? Not saying it's likely in this set up, but I recall it was somewhat similar situation where you had a Low driving up into Western Pa. 

[North and West]

I love how we went from worrying about suppression to mixing in 24 hours.
 
Cant it ever be easy?

Question though, why is it the way it is? I thought the high pressure was too strong and too cold, and now it’s just like, “whoopsies, my bad, let me skidattle for you.”


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[Snowlover11]

Not to derail the thread but anyone see the long term GFS? Holy shit!

[North and West]

Not to derail the thread but anyone see the long term GFS? Holy shit!:weenie:

Hot weenie action?


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[Snowlover11]

Just now, North and West said:

Hot weenie action?


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For this storm and the one showing up a week later.

[WeatherGeek2025]

17 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

We dont usually do well with tail end/wrap around snows. Its usually a dump followed by lighter precip mix and shutting off.

that's CCB sometimes it works very well

[weatherpruf]

8 minutes ago, North and West said:

Hot weenie action?


.

made me laugh......i mean really...the connotations here....

[Tatamy]

8 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

For this storm and the one showing up a week later.

That’s nuts.  I don’t want five feet of snow in my neighborhood.

[Picard]

8 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

For this storm and the one showing up a week later.

Almost 5 feet in Sparta.  Nice.  Imagine if it verified, or even half of it.
I mean, we are due for a correction on the overall low precipitation amounts in the past year, year and a half.  What a time it would be if the deluge came in the form of winter snow.

Probably not, but fun to ponder.

[North and West]

For this storm and the one showing up a week later.

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[Winterweatherlover]

25 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

We dont usually do well with tail end/wrap around snows. Its usually a dump followed by lighter precip mix and shutting off.

Normaly backend snow is in a myth in this area but in this type of scenario I can see it ending as snow.

[Jersey_Snowhole]

Euro delayed

[NJwx85]

25 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Canadian skill scores are notably higher than the GFS.  I’d keep the Canadian option on the table for the moment.  Let’s what the UKIE AND EURO have to add shortly.  GFS skill scores are at the bottom of the pack.

Basic physics tells you that you can’t run the upper level low into a 1038-1040mb high. If we didn’t have blocking it would be a completely different story. Heavy snow to a dry slot followed by the potential coastal on Monday is much more likely at this point than significant mixing issues. However, even 96 had some sleet up this way. Can’t rule it out but any guidance holding on to that primary North of say Pittsburg is likely wrong.

[EastonSN+]

Are there a lot of suppressed solutions on the GEFS?

[Nibor]

31 minutes ago, North and West said:

Question though, why is it the way it is? I thought the high pressure was too strong and too cold, and now it’s just like, “whoopsies, my bad, let me skidattle for you.”


.

Notice how the bottom of the trough has moved west over the past couple of runs? That allows the primary to ride west of us. The High to the north eventually stops it but it brings warm air aloft to the east causing mixing. Prior to this the primary slid to our south.

[SACRUS]

 

only 14 more model cycles suites to go.  At this range the very close avg of all QPF has NYC spot on 1 inch which is quite a feat for such an aligned 96-120H forecast.  

[Snowlover11]

Euro got nuked. Lol

 

We will be delayed but not denied!

[EastonSN+]

28 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GEFS is not amped....

Borrowed from MA forum 

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Borrowed from MA forum 

Good to have a mix of amped plus less amped solutions across models. 

[Nibor]

4 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Euro got nuked. Lol

 

We will be delayed but not denied!

It's running now.

[TriPol]

I keep refreshing Pivotal Weather like it’s a lever connected directly to the Euro’s supercomputer. Strangely, the model remains unimpressed by my enthusiasm.

 

 

 

[BoulderWX]

TWC now has NYC on the northern edge of their 12-18 band FWIW. 

[Jersey_Snowhole]

Euro AI holds serve

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, Jersey_Snowhole said:

Euro AI holds serve

Looks amazing 

[BoulderWX]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Looks amazing 

Anyone able to post QPF

[DreamBig]

Has the hurricane hunter data been added to the initializations yet? If not does anyone know when?