Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[jm1220]

Euro in general looked a little colder to me. 

[Snowlover11]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Euro in general looked a little colder to me. 

A tick, good overall 12z!

[MarcmmKU]

Euro looks about the same?

[SACRUS]

 

1/23 12z EURO totak QPF storm

 

 

Total snow / sleet / frz rain (10:1)

[Stormlover74]

Mt holly Morris on south more for north and west 

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow with mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations between 10 and 15 inches and ice accumulations around one tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Monday.

[EastonSN+]

Great 12z suite.

The only 3 models to get worse are the following. All others improved.

GFS

AIGFS

ICON

[allgame830]

3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

1/23 12z EURO totak QPF storm

 

 

Total snow / sleet / frz rain (10:1)

why has the euro consistently been showing the least amount of pecip.... like several of the models are double this run! 

[IrishRob17]

7 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1238 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

NJZ008>010-012>015-020-026-PAZ060-103-105-106-241100-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0001.260125T0600Z-260126T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0001.260125T0000Z-260126T1800Z/
Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern
Monmouth-Mercer-Ocean-Coastal Ocean-Berks-Western Montgomery-
Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of New Brunswick, Long Beach Island,
Perkasie, Reading, Trenton, Pottstown, Somerville, Sandy Hook,
Collegeville, Flemington, Freehold, Jackson, Morrisville,
Doylestown, Morristown, and Chalfont
1238 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow with mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations between 10 and 15 inches and ice accumulations
  around one tenth of an inch.

 

6 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

WSW issued. Mt Holly still going with 10-15" here. 

 

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Mt holly Morris on south more for north and west 

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow with mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations between 10 and 15 inches and ice accumulations around one tenth of an inch.

* WHERE...Portions of New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From 7 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Monday.

I guess Mount Holly issued a Warning? 

[SnoSki14]

WSW with 10-15" which is a bit high. I would've gone with 8-12" which is the model consensus but we'll see if those early ratios make up for it. 

[SACRUS]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

12z Suite

 

Total QPF / Snow/sleet Frz Rn (10:1) - NYC

SREF:  1.4 / (8.8)
NAM: 1.7 / (14.6)
RGEM:  1.1 / (7.8)
ICON:  1.2 / (8.0)
GFS:  1.4 / (12.4)
GGEM:  1.1 / (8.8)
GEFS: 1.5 / (11.6)
UKMET: 0.5 / ( 6.7)
Euro AI AIFS:  1/1 / (10.2)
Euro : 0.9 / (6.9)

Updated

 

Avg QPF : 1.2 / Avg Snow : 9.6

[Prue11]

6 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

why has the euro consistently been showing the least amount of pecip.... like several of the models are double this run! 

No idea but I’m not buying it. Euros been awful 

[winterwarlock]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

WSW with 10-15" which is a bit high. I would've gone with 8-12" which is the model consensus but we'll see if those early ratios make up for it. 

I guess  they didnt see the euro..i dont know why the euro is hardly being discussed here..some of the lowest qpf and lowest snow amounts

[qg_omega]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

Updated

Throwing out NAM, very good consensus of around 8 to 10

[psv88]

1 minute ago, winterwarlock said:

I guess  they didnt see the euro..i dont know why the euro is hardly being discussed here..some of the lowest qpf and lowest snow amounts

Its an outlier of sorts. Very dry and doesnt make sense with this setup. 

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, winterwarlock said:

I guess  they didnt see the euro..i dont know why the euro is hardly being discussed here..some of the lowest qpf and lowest snow amounts

Average them out its 1.2" 

[winterwarlock]

21 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1238 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

NJZ008>010-012>015-020-026-PAZ060-103-105-106-241100-
/O.UPG.KPHI.WS.A.0001.260125T0600Z-260126T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.W.0001.260125T0000Z-260126T1800Z/
Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Western Monmouth-Eastern
Monmouth-Mercer-Ocean-Coastal Ocean-Berks-Western Montgomery-
Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks-
Including the cities of New Brunswick, Long Beach Island,
Perkasie, Reading, Trenton, Pottstown, Somerville, Sandy Hook,
Collegeville, Flemington, Freehold, Jackson, Morrisville,
Doylestown, Morristown, and Chalfont
1238 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow with mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
  accumulations between 10 and 15 inches and ice accumulations
  around one tenth of an inch.

they did lower philly and so jersey to 8-12 but honestly that 8-12 should also include southern somerset, middlesex, monmouth and ocean

[TJW014]

Updated map. Will this pan out? No clue, but that's why I'm not a met. Some minor tweaks from the last one, and unless we see major trends within the next 24 hours, I don't think I'll make any adjustments.

I guess you could call it a near worse-case scenario but I'm sticking to a lower/conservative side. I think the mixing line makes it up to CT, then following just north/west of the Fall Line. ENE winds will bring a period of rain to coastal NJ, keeping totals lower. Freezing rain up to 0.25" possible for inland NJ, south of Raritan Bay. However, if the mixing line quickly retreats, or doesn't even make it that far north/east, totals here will be higher, possibly add 50% to what's projected on the map (not in pink). Areas north/west of Easton, PA - Mahwah, NJ should remain all snow, 12-18" likely, possibly higher amounts in higher elevations.

[winterwarlock]

8 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Throwing out NAM, very good consensus of around 8 to 10

this

 

i think 8-10 a great forecast for a wide swath south of 78, if you want to account for under or over performance a general 6-12 from north central jersey through middlesex ocean monmouth down to philly

[WestBabylonWeather]

NWS has 7-11 Sunday and 2-4 Sunday night at Farmingdale 

[eduggs]

23 minutes ago, MarcmmKU said:

Euro looks about the same?

Yup. ECM-AI was maybe a hair better.

[Lucy Pull]

3 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Updated map. Will this pan out? No clue, but that's why I'm not a met. Some minor tweaks from the last one, and unless we see major trends within the next 24 hours, I don't think I'll make any adjustments.

I guess you could call it a near worse-case scenario but I'm sticking to a lower/conservative side. I think the mixing line makes it up to CT, then following just north/west of the Fall Line. ENE winds will bring a period of rain to coastal NJ, keeping totals lower. Freezing rain up to 0.25" possible for inland NJ, south of Raritan Bay. However, if the mixing line quickly retreats, or doesn't even make it that far north/east, totals here will be higher, possibly add 50% to what's projected on the map (not in pink). Areas north/west of Easton, PA - Mahwah, NJ should remain all snow, 12-18" likely, possibly higher amounts in higher elevations.

Really like this map unless we see more tics. Think southern zones could do a hair better depending on rates. 

[wilton_wx]

2 minutes ago, Lucy Pull said:

Really like this map unless we see more tics. Think southern zones could do a hair better depending on rates. 

I think that 8-12" line gets pulled south, theres very little consensus right now that the sleet makes it that far north into CT. Coastal areas, yes. But that 300' elevation change from Coastline to more inland will be very telling

[Stormlover74]

Upton warnings out

[hooralph]

Winter Storm Warning issued January 23 at 1:12PM EST until January 26 at 6:00PM EST by NWS Upton NY

Description * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 10 and 14 inches. A changeover to a wintry mix is possible Sunday evening and could lead to additional sleet accumulation and a glaze of ice before a change back over to light snow later Sunday night. Isolated wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph are possible for eastern long Island. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. * WHEN...From 3 AM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Visibilities may drop below 1/4 mile due to falling and blowing snow.

What You Should Do Persons should consider delaying travel from Sunday into Monday. If travel is absolutely necessary, drive with extreme caution. Make sure your car is winterized and in good working order. Consider taking a winter storm kit along with you, including such items as tire chains, booster cables, flashlight, shovel, blankets and extra clothing. Also take water, a first aid kit, and anything else that would help you survive in case you become stranded.

Affected Areas Eastern Passaic; Hudson; Western Bergen; Eastern Bergen; Western Essex; Eastern Essex; Western Union; Eastern Union; Southern Westchester; New York (Manhattan); Bronx; Richmond (Staten Is.); Kings (Brooklyn); Northwest Suffolk; Northeast Suffolk; Southwest Suffolk; Southeast Suffolk; Northern Queens; Northern Nassau; Southern Queens; Southern Nassau

[TriPol]

*clears throat*

It's time for the obligatory...

It's nowcasting time.

[MJO812]

Nice 10-14 inches

Lets go !

[lee59]

13 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

NWS has 7-11 Sunday and 2-4 Sunday night at Farmingdale 

They actually just changed it to 8-12 on Sunday and 1-3 on Sunday night. So they have not backed off those totals yet.

[Snowlover11]

Winter Storm Warning just issued for 12-16”

[qg_omega]

23 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Its an outlier of sorts. Very dry and doesnt make sense with this setup. 

It has a local screw zone between the two coastal lows, very similar to UKMET.  

[Jt17]

Nice 10-14 inches
Lets go !

Nice, I told my colleagues 10-15 with the lower end being with earlier sleet and higher end being with later sleet. Now they're gonna think I'm a wizard when they get their winter storm warning alert.


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