Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/25 - 1/26

[eduggs]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Every model has at least advisory level snow from nyc south. With ratios won't take much to get to warning level. Just because we may not see the foot plus amounts this far north doesn’t mean it can't be a good storm

I agree that even modest QPF can make for a good snowstorm with cold temperatures. But I don't think we can write off a big storm either. It's early. IMO the 18z ECM was the best run in several cycles for the model. Ensembles, GFS/CMC/ECM, and AIs are all solid or workable.

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Rjay said:

We're also 5+ days out

Yeah that too

[Stormlover74]

Just now, eduggs said:

I agree that even modest QPF can make for a good snowstorm with cold temperatures. But I don't think we can write off a big storm either. It's early. IMO the 18z ECM was the best run in several cycles for the model. Ensembles, GFS/CMC/ECM, and AIs are all solid or workable.

Yeah I agree. Our big ones always come north inside 72 hours so we have plenty of time

[Prue11]

9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Every model has at least advisory level snow from nyc south. With ratios won't take much to get to warning level. Just because we may not see the foot plus amounts this far north doesn’t mean it can't be a good storm

I may the be the minority here but I’m over 3-6” events. honestly just a nuisance at this point. They’re cool early in the season. Maybe im Just being greedy 

[Nibor]

1 minute ago, Prue11 said:

I may the be the minority here but I’m over 3-6” events. honestly just a nuisance at this point. They’re cool early in the season. Maybe im Just being greedy 

We are all size queens here, friend.

[mob1]

Big shift north on the GFS 

[Jt17]

Big shift north on the GFS 

Surprised it took so long for somebody mention it lol decent shift!


.

[Stormlover74]

[NJwx85]

GFS is North.

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, Jt17 said:

Surprised it took so long for somebody mention it lol decent shift!


.

More than decent. Fully phasing in western trough. 

[Nibor]

[Stormlover74]

Solid hit 4 to 8 with ratios

[WeatherGeek2025]

3 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Big shift north on the GFS 

does that mean i stay?

[Tatamy]

1 hour ago, weatherpruf said:

seen enough of these set ups to know this ain't our storm. too cold, suppression, whatever, can't win em all. well, can't win any big events these days.....i can't shovel big amounts anyway. 3-6 is fine.

I hired a contractor for this weekend.  I did my fair share this past weekend.

[Nibor]

                                                    

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

does that mean i stay?

 

[MJO812]

Cmc looks explosive 

[kat5hurricane]

3 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

It’s setups like this that I can’t stand people that root for cold weather. As always, the cold has to be well timed and not too entrenched or it’s suppression city. I’d rather it be in the 60’s and sunny all winter with the occasional well timed cold and storm then a fridged winter where the track stays South.

February 2010 was one of the most painful times for me as a snow lover. This one is giving me those vibes unfortunately but plenty of time left for changes obviously.

[Nibor]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Cmc looks explosive 

Phasing

[Franklin0529]

CMC about to go boom

[WeatherFox]

Every model run will have changes. Trends and time will tell the results.

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc looks explosive 

Models phasing western trough. Huge amount of energy getting slammed against a massive cold dome. 

[Stormlover74]

Wow

[WeatherFox]

Last I saw was a 30% chance of snow in the long range for NYC.

[Franklin0529]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Wow

Pants tent material right there. Good God 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Models phasing western trough. Huge amount of energy getting slammed against a massive cold dome. 

Very high ratios snow also. 

[MJO812]

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Very high ratios snow also. 

One of those times where the weenie snow maps actually comes in handy. Temps are in the low teens when the snow comes in...that's nuts

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, MJO812 said:

too far out for a perfect run lol. 

[eduggs]

That's a sweet CMC run. And at 150hr when most of the precipitation appears done, there's more energy back in the midwest suggestion this could be more extended than shown. It looks like the 18z ECM at the end of its run except with the southern stream ULL escaping east first to deliver a major snowstorm.

[brooklynwx99]

CMC and GFS both moved towards a more efficient phase, great to see