Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[Jt17]

Not taking the GFS too seriously. Its own AI version doesn’t even agree with it. As much as I wish I could because hour 93 is beautiful. 

How does it not agree? Similar QPF and looks cold enough for all snow from what I can tell.


.

[North and West]

yup, Im at MMU and I'm thinking 6-10 is a good call right now

.

[LawdogGRNJ]

Lots of discussion about amount total changes...Has the timing changed much?

[winterwx21]

21 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Sure I’d like a big daddy but I’ll take one if these several times in a winter any time. We still have our snowiest month coming up. This might not be it for us.


.

I'm at 18.5" here in Piscataway. Already a very good winter, so I'll be very happy even if this gets cut down to a 6 to 10 inch storm due to mixing. Would've loved all snow with a potential of a foot and a half like the models were showing a couple days ago, but I'm happy that we're looking at our best front end dump type of storm in quite awhile. This storm alone should get us close normal snowfall for an entire winter, and as you said we still have what is usually our best snow month (February) ahead of us. 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

What's funny is that if the GFS was bad people would committing suicide.

Its a perfect solution and people say "Well it sucks." Gotta love weenie mentality!

It sucks at picking out warm layers so if the mesos show it i discount the gfs

[Wxbear25]

GFS is almost ideal for pretty much everyone in the sub-forum… messier phase leads to less pronounced mid-level features and quicker transition to the coast.

of course it’s been a day late and a dollar short this whole time, so it can’t be trusted without other support but it’s at least nice to see

oh, and it’s nasty little tendency to underdo mid-level warmth. Pretty big issue 

[OrangeCTWX]

1 minute ago, Jt17 said:

How does it not agree? Similar QPF and looks cold enough for all snow from what I can tell.


.

AI brings the primary into WV and ultimately brings the secondary next to the outer cape.  GFS doesn’t really get close to doing either of those.

[NJwx85]

12Z GFS is about as perfect as it gets for our area.

[eduggs]

3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

I would love for the GFS to verify but it's the outlier. I am going all in with Euro AI. if Euro AI verified it'd be 8-12 in the city followed by sleet which would keep my snow for weeks on the ground. I'm happy with that and there's more chances of snow down the road!

I'll be following the ECM-AI closely too. Anecdotally it's done great this year. That and the NAM for how far north mixing gets. The AIs plus CMC are pretty amped - it looks like that's where we're headed. The GFS is heavily discounted in my mind.

[SACRUS]

1/22 12z GFS AI AIGFS:

Total QPF storm

 

Total Snow / Sleet (10:1)

 

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

cmc looks weaker

stronger confluence from the high by Montreal 

[SACRUS]

12Z GGEM:

 

 

 

[BoulderWX]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

cmc looks weaker

mixing for almost everyone except extreme NNJ and NYS by 84 aligning with most of the guidance. 

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It sucks at picking out warm layers so if the mesos show it i discount the gfs

Its not about the warm layers, its where the primary dies out. That impacts the warm layers more than anything. The track of the surface and mid level lows. The warmer models have a primary further north than the GFS. I still say there is compromise in between. 

What we do know is that the primary is not tracking to Ottawa as some models showed and we are not getting a southern slider. We can now be 100% confident in a 6" snowfall for the entire area. NW areas can be confident in 12". Closer to the coast my forecast would be 8-12" for now of snow/sleet. 

Its going to be fun.

[Winterweatherlover]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

I have been saying this for days. We are all getting snow. 

There are things can go wrong in every storm. Here, we are locked to see a major winter storm. We can chat about model output, but repeating that you are "Concerned" its not necessary. Ruins the vibe.

Agree, theres snow on the ground, likely 6+ inches more coming for everyone followed by sleet which will lock it in and then more cold, I get people get their hopes up when these storms get hyped for 12+ but I don't really get the negativity either. 

[eduggs]

5 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Or you just allow yourself to enjoy it? What's so bad about sleet on top of snow anyway? It's not rain.

Sleet walks are much less enjoyable than snow walks.

[Brian5671]

GFS was too cold for the last event 12/26-27

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, BoulderWX said:

mixing for almost everyone except extreme NNJ and NYS by 84 aligning with most of the guidance. 

The sleet line actually came about 20 miles further southeast this run.

[Snowlover11]

So based on what we are seeing expect 0-20”. So much doom and gloom for what’s going to be our biggest storm in years. People need to step off the ledge. We are less than 3 days from flakes flying.

 

 

[MANDA]

9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs is less of a thump but longer duration with heavier stuff at night when all the other models have us flipping by that time

It has better evolution and track for the secondary.  Kind of on its own right now with that solution.

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

mixing for almost everyone except extreme NNJ and NYS by 84 aligning with most of the guidance. 

cmc is south by about 20 miles

[psv88]

Just now, Winterweatherlover said:

The sleet line actually came about 20 miles further southeast this run.

Correct, its about trends. The north ticks have stopped for now. I would count on some sleet in the NYC metro areas and SW/S/SE. But rain is also off the table.

[MJO812]

Cmc

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

GFS was too cold for the last event 12/26-27

Yeah but every event is different. 

I'm going with wall of heavy snow to sleet and 6-10" region wide with locals 12+

Leaning on the colder side too. The scope and intensity of this airmass is much larger than what we're used to. It wouldn't surprise me to see models trend colder 

[SACRUS]

 

 

1/22 12Z GGEM  total QPF storm

 

 

 

 

Total snow / sleet (10:1)

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

the sleet gets stalled out around queens and manhattan it could be a trend overall a good run 8-10 inches followed by some sleet city and south

[Nibor]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Sleet walks are much less enjoyable than snow walks.

I did 3 miles in the height of the Valentines Day storm 2007. Brutal.

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

1/22 12Z GGEM  total QPF storm

 

 

 

 

Total snow / sleet (10:1)

 

warmest panel

[Jt17]

 
 
1/22 12Z GGEM  total QPF storm
 
 
 
 
Total snow / sleet (10:1)
 

Insanely quick compared to everything else?


.

[SACRUS]

42 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

1/22 12Z : 
NYC area
Total QPF / (Snow/Sleet) using 10:1

NAM (84H) : 0.7  /  (6.7)
RGEM (84H): 1.0 / (9.0)
ICON :  1.4 / (8.5)
GFS: 1.4 / 12.5
GGEM: 1.2 / 8.2
 

Updated