Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[eduggs]

I don't mind a little sleet. But with the way the UK, ECM, and CMC are evolving, the duration of overrunning is shortening. The ptype mix is indicating that the best dynamics have shifted north and we get dryslotted. If precip. blossoms thereafter as the hang-back trof approaches and a new surface reflection forms south of LI, then that would change the tenor and mitigate any lull. It could be the difference between a relatively quick hitting 6-10" and a long duration 10-18".

[T4NK]

 

free-styling to the weekend ❄️⚠️

[winterwx21]

4 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

 

Euro is getting the mixing close to us by 18z Sunday. Mixing is becoming more and more of a concern, but we have a long way to go and at worst we'll get a decent front end dump before mixing. 

[North and West]

my forecast
 
Central Park 18
Boston 18
Washington DC 19
Philladelphia 17

Central Park 1.8


.

[ag3]

The sleet is at the end when dynamics shut off. 

[North and West]

Storm starts in what 90 hrs? Beautiful place to be. Biggest snow storm in 10 years

2021?


.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

25 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Even the steam grate CP measures their snow on top of should be frozen this time.


.

Let's hope.
 

It still irritates me how they messed up the Jan 1996 blizzard measurements. That should be a 24plus storm but somehow at the end they gave us 20.
 

Newark airport measured 28 LGA 24 and right in the middle 5 miles in either direction a 20 from Central Park. That was the days of the infamous Central Park zookeeper doing the measurements. 

[TriPol]

Just now, North and West said:

2021?


.

This is bigger. The last time we had something like this was 2016. This is a KU storm through and through.

[Neblizzard]

4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Euro is getting the mixing close to us by 18z Sunday. Mixing is becoming more and more of a concern, but we have a long way to go and at worst we'll get a decent front end dump before mixing. 

96-120 hours out.  We should know better to take any model as gospel. 

[nycwinter]

you do not want any significant sleet on top of a snow pack and cold temps that will take longer for the snow to eventually  melt.in the cold that follows.

[donsutherland1]

Overall, it appeared that the 12z ECMWF was a bit flatter than the 0z ECMWF, hence the slight reduction in QPF. Overall, the consensus of the guidance continues to point toward a significant snowfall, even with the risk of some sleet getting involved late in the storm.

[EasternLI]

Steady at 12z on EPS. Very similar to 6z.

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Let's hope.
 

It still irritates me how they messed up the Jan 1996 blizzard measurements. That should be a 24plus storm but somehow at the end they gave us 20.
 

Newark airport measured 28 LGA 24 and right in the middle 5 miles in either direction a 20 from Central Park. That was the days of the infamous Central Park zookeeper doing the measurements. 

Terrible.  BDR did that-they showed 14 for 1996 which is absurd

[WeatherGeek2025]

8 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Euro is getting the mixing close to us by 18z Sunday. Mixing is becoming more and more of a concern, but we have a long way to go and at worst we'll get a decent front end dump before mixing. 

euro sucks, euro had no snow for the weekend at all until last minute

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

2 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

you do not want any significant sleet on top of a snow pack and cold temps that will take longer for the snow to eventually  melt.in the cold that follows.

Why would we want it to melt? I've had snow cover almost 40 days so far this winter. I'm hoping for 80. 

[NEG NAO]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro has it starting early Sunday morning with the heaviest during the day.

definite timing issues have to be worked out as the Euro brings it in very early Sunday morning and wants to mix it here in the afternoon - while the GFS only starts the snow in the late morning

[eduggs]

Yes mixing is clearly a concern now with the upper level support well to our northwest on Sunday. Heights and thickness values are surging during the day on Sunday. The CMC shoots the initial shortwave south of Chicago to near Detroit and Buffalo. Then on Monday the ULL is near Sault Ste. Marie... super amped! The Euro isn't too far off. If that's correct, we'll probably have more mixing issues faster than modeled on Sunday. We may not see it until Fri when the NAM is fully in range. The ski areas of the North Country are starting to look great for a long-duration snow event. That's usually a bad sign. The 500mb chart at 0z Monday would look like a rainstorm if you didn't see the preceding panels. I think we should pump the breaks on the Kuchera and NBM snowfall maps and hope for a flatter trof evolution in subsequent model runs.

[winterwx21]

5 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

96-120 hours out.  We should know better to take any model as gospel. 

Of course, which is why I said we have a long way to go. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

5 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

you do not want any significant sleet on top of a snow pack and cold temps that will take longer for the snow to eventually  melt.in the cold that follows.

i actually want that, i don't want my snow to melt

[Volcanic Winter]

22 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Doubt it'll top January 28-29 for us coasties. Had 20.5" here, but everyone will get to enjoy this one 

I had 16+, recently checked out the maps for 1/29/22 and I was definitely just shy of the local max which you caught more of. I had 18 in 1/4/18 too, local max in Ocean was like 22 for that one. 

I like where we're at, the sleet threat is real but we've been the QPF max in NJ for a bit now. It's going to be a dice roll but we'll either jackpot or still do very well and sleet at the end, rain is possible but for now I'll wait to see how the north shift evolves.

I still think CNJ (as in middle third of the state, not cultural CNJ) is going to do extremely well. Hopefully the entire metro gets a major storm.

[winterwx21]

9 minutes ago, ag3 said:

The sleet is at the end when dynamics shut off. 

The Euro brings in mixing issues early Sunday afternoon now. We might not know until we get into NAM range since that model is so good at sniffing out mixing problems.  

[nycwinter]

lets see what the nam says about mixing issues only model i trust when it comes to that..

[wthrmn654]

Good! Finally a big storm coming but no more big shifts north pretty please

[TriPol]

I'll wait until Friday to worry about mixing. 

[EastonSN+]

12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Terrible.  BDR did that-they showed 14 for 1996 which is absurd

27 inches from Fairfield CT to Greenwich CT.

[Jt17]

Euro AI is a lot more like GFS and GFS AI hopefully a sign Euro is a little too quick and amped


.

[dseagull]

6 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I had 16+, recently checked out the maps for 1/29/22 and I was definitely just shy of the local max which you caught more of. I had 18 in 1/4/18 too, local max in Ocean was like 22 for that one. 

I like where we're at, the sleet threat is real but we've been the QPF max in NJ for a bit now. It's going to be a dice roll but we'll either jackpot or still do very well and sleet at the end, rain is possible but for now I'll wait to see how the north shift evolves.

I still think CNJ (as in middle third of the state, not cultural CNJ) is going to do extremely well. Hopefully the entire metro gets a major storm.

If the north trend stops or shifts back south 50 miles, I agree with you.  Toms river would do OK.   Could very well see the warm nose come to fruition, though... and that would be pretty brutal. 

[nycwinter]

many years ago in nyc like 15 at least we had a 12 hour sleet storm in nyc temps in low 20's and nothing but sleet covered the sidewalks and streets and everything was covered in ice and very slippery..

[the_other_guy]

Nobody outside of the coastal plain is mixing with this storm.

 

Lets get real guys.  

[the_other_guy]

8 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

many years ago in nyc like 15 at least we had a 12 hour sleet storm in nyc temps in low 20's and nothing but sleet covered the sidewalks and streets and everything was covered in ice and very slippery..

Valentines 2007