Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/25 - 1/26

[oceanctyguy]

13 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

the hype on this storm was just stupid. It was talked about 8 days before. 8 days model runs should never seep into the public. 4 days is when they should get the heads up and it was clear 4 days ago there could be issues with this storm. Thats where the starting point should have been. Add in Mt Holly going nutso hugging that stupid NBM model to its base and putting out irresponsible 12-18 inch maps that only were supported by the GFS and then blatently telling us in discos that sleet was a very low possibility. I have no idea who is in charge of Mt Holly but they totally screwed the pooch with hype and disco instead of taking a pratical approach giving both sides of the coin. Even yesterday they refused to budge with snow maps of 14 inches as likely amounts for most of NJ. I am sorry to be so harsh but somebody has to.  This will be an impactful storm dumping 4 to perhaps as much as a 15 inches in northern NJ and 1-2 inches of sleet added to 4-8 inches of snow is impactful but its not something we have not seen before. Its a Sunday. It will thump heavy snow for 6 hours and then turn to pingers of varying intensity til midnight. Schools will be closed on Monday and everyone will have the opportunity to dig out by afternoon and hit the grocery store again. The real story will be the glacier deep freeze for the next 2-3 weeks. 

Couldn't agree more on your thoughts regarding Mt Holly. Even now, less than 18 hrs before start time they're still going with  8-12 all the way down through Oceann county.

[jm1220]

9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I'm taking alot of abuse this morning lol, "you have been very accurate this winter but these last two storms you've been awful on your predictions".  I'd be wary of the NAM given its been solid on these ideas this season thus far.  Right now I'd be nervous about the 6 plus forecast for the coast for sure though it may be 6 plus with sleet included since official climo counts that.

I’m not sure if these Pivotal 10-1 maps count sleet as snow, if not and there’s 2” more sleet, 5-6” snow would end up as 7-8” accumulation. Even with the NAM that seems to be what we’re looking at. But I agree, definitely can’t discount it. 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Prue11 said:

12z gfs hammers mass

Was also clear for the last 3-4 days that the I-90 corridor including Boston would get nailed by this storm. Maybe jump on the Acela there and get a hotel for a couple nights. 

[eduggs]

26 minutes ago, Juturna said:

As long as it’s messy enough to close school Monday, I’ll take it. Handicapped, and my snow cleaning crew ain’t digging me out till Monday I’m sure. My town has already canceled garbage pickup Monday as well.

The steady precip. should be done by midnight if not sooner, so theoretically there's plenty of time to clear snow and treat roads to open schools and businesses Monday morning. But just based on the hype I expect most things to be closed on Monday.

[Metasequoia]

8 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Locked in

Locked in for an NYC snow hole

[North and West]

Damn, now we have to worry about the sun angle...at 15F, lol.  

.

[allgame830]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The steady precip. should be done by midnight if not sooner, so theoretically there's plenty of time to clear snow and treat roads to open schools and businesses Monday morning. But just based on the hype I expect most things to be closed on Monday.

It’s supposed to be like 10 degrees again tomorrow night. And places north and west where a foot of snow or more will fall all districts will be closed 

[nycsnow]

Nam had Little Rock getting no snow, they’re at 6 inches lol

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’m not sure if these Pivotal 10-1 maps count sleet as snow, if not and there’s 2” more sleet, 5-6” snow would end up as 7-8” accumulation. Even with the NAM that seems to be what we’re looking at. But I agree, definitely can’t discount it. 

I don't think it does. I noticed it halts the accumulation (at least on kuchera) as soon as we flip to sleet

[allgame830]

Just now, nycsnow said:

Nam had Little Rock getting no snow, they’re at 6 inches lol

Well that most likely mean the NAM really has no clue if this is correct? 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

The navgem and 557ww model have been all snow since the get. Little known but the most consistent modeling so far. They both show all levels at or below freezing for the duration of the event. Good to see ukie joined them after being in the warm camp.

[Snowman92]

Is it too early to nowcast and see where the low is compared to the model runs

[Winterweatherlover]

Best Guess

 

Local best guess predictions, subject to change based on slight deviations in track

 

Sandy Hook 7 inches than sleet/zr

JFK 7 inches then sleet/zr

NYC 8 inches then sleet

Yonkers 10 inches then sleet

HPN 12 inches then snow/sleet mix

North shore LI- 10 inches then sleet

Poughkeepsie 18 inches, all snow

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I’m not sure if these Pivotal 10-1 maps count sleet as snow, if not and there’s 2” more sleet, 5-6” snow would end up as 7-8” accumulation. Even with the NAM that seems to be what we’re looking at. But I agree, definitely can’t discount it. 

The oddest thing about the NAM to me is it does not even have crazy rates ahead of the changeover line.  The frontogenesis is semi dislodged from the area where that would occur which may be why.  But every other model shows insane rates 2-3 hours before that change occurs...so if the NAM is wrong on that idea the changeover may be delayed

[wilton_wx]

Thoughts on HREF?

[Mr. T.]

What happen to the 12z RGEM?

[nycsnow]

Just now, allgame830 said:

Well that most likely mean the NAM really has no clue if this is correct? 

Might not mean morning for us, but still interesting to watch trends 

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Just now, nycsnow said:

Might not mean morning for us, but still interesting to watch trends 

Trends are our friends. It is indeed running colder then modeled.well for nam atleast.

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, Mr. T. said:

What happen to the 12z RGEM?

None of the Canadian models ran

[SACRUS]

Can we run the old ETA and ECM for the E+E rule?  Throw in the KFS and JMA for old time sake.

[Mr. T.]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

None of the Canadian models ran

Oh, didnt even realize the CMC didnt run either.

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Just now, SACRUS said:

Can we run the old ETA and ECM for the E+E rule?  Throw in the KFS and JMA for old time sake.

I miss the good ol nippon (jma) model. It was fairly good back in the day as well.

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

None of the Canadian models ran

The Canadian models are tired of trying to figure out this storm, they gave up.

[Rmine1]

Would you rather waste precip waiting for the column to cool enough to support snow, or to what we may be facing tomorrow evening? 
 

I most certainly rather have the snow on the ground before a possible mix, that will still be frozen. Far from ideal, but we all know that “ideal” snowstorms, especially for LI, are a rarity. 
 

We’ll all love the winter wonderland that won’t be melted away the following day, also very typical of recent winters.

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Nam had Little Rock getting no snow, they’re at 6 inches lol

We should be monitoring obs down there, if the NAM’s too aggressive with the mid level warmth down there hopefully that bodes well for us. 

[RU848789]

43 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

The ice accumulation  potential and very cold temps make it  a winter storm warning

If meteorologists weren't so fixated on snow depth, but instead focused on frozen mass, 2" of sleet, alone, which is equivalent in frozen mass to 6" of 10:1 snow, would qualify for a warning.  Same impacts on transportation and shoveling/plowing, plus it melts more slowly due to the much lower surface area to volume ratio.  It doesn't have visibility issues, though, and it's not as pretty, but it's just about as impactful on the public.  

[chrisNJ]

3 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Can we run the old ETA and ECM for the E+E rule?  Throw in the KFS and JMA for old time sake.

Wasnt there an Etaxx? Extended ETA?

[donsutherland1]

7 minutes ago, wilton_wx said:

Thoughts on HREF?

For reference, here's the map though 1/26 0z. Typically, if one reduces the amounts by a category at this lead time, it's estimate is pretty good. As snow will continue to fall in parts of the Hudson Valley after 0z, it's current listing of 12"-15" there is reasonable. I think there will be some 18" amounts there.

[Brasiluvsnow]

1 hour ago, wxman said:

According to Gemini (aka "ask Jeeves"):

 

In 2026, the FV3 model (specifically in its High-Resolution Window and GFS implementations) is noted for a more conservative approach to "warm noses" (elevated layers of air above freezing) compared to older models like the NAM. 

 

Warm Nose Prediction Characteristics

• Layer Integrity: The FV3 tends to maintain colder column integrity better than the NAM. In winter weather setups, it often predicts a weaker or later-arriving warm nose, which can lead to forecasts for more persistent snow while other models might suggest an earlier transition to sleet or rain.

Thanks this is exactly what I asked about a few pages back

[Winterweatherlover]

1 minute ago, Rmine1 said:

Would you rather waste precip waiting for the column to cool enough to support snow, or to what we may be facing tomorrow evening? 
 

I most certainly rather have the snow on the ground before a possible mix, that will still be frozen. Far from ideal, but we all know that “ideal” snowstorms, especially for LI, are a rarity. 
 

We’ll all love the winter wonderland that won’t be melted away the following day, also very typical of recent winters.

Agree with that i'd always rather a snow to other precip scenario than the other way around near the coast.