Major Hurricane Isaias

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, cptcatz said:

I feel like asking NHC if those 100 mph winds are in the room with them right now...

FL supported 80 kts but they noted tail Doppler found slightly higher winds around them enough to justify the increase. With organization once again looking better there’s nothing to argue why further increases wouldn’t be expected tonight as well

[vortex95]

13 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I find 100MPH hard to believe with the way it looks right now.

They are reaching IMHO.  No drop in pressure and FL winds the same?  That tail radar measurement I bet was due to pulsing convection transitory spot wind, rather than true gradient.  And the Dvorak does not support 85 kt winds.  One observation does not take precedence over several observations that show the contrary.  I just find if they can hedge higher for system threading land, they will.

[vortex95]

For scale, I attached zoomed out WV image,.  The CDO/core of Isaias is very small.  That makes it much more susceptible to shear and dry air.  Also, easier RI.

The 12z HAFS A/B shows sig intensification, but the rate of weakening it shows just in the last 9 hr up to landfall is quite remarkable.  Just from a wild extreme swing one end to the other, this may be an exceptional event meteorologically.  We get lots of big RIs just before landfall (Michael, Otis), but going the other way?   I know no Atlantic situation quite like this, at least for an impending landfall.  Sure, many HUs elsewhere has got torn apart in short order, but it is so much different when close to landfall and the system is quite strong within say 12-15 hr of landfall.  A lot more eyes are on it!
 

[NorthHillsWx]

Very impressive ring of convection developing around the…. Eye…. Yes we have a legit eye now! Appears to be making another leap 

[jm1220]

Dewpoints in the upper 50s over SE TX which might as well be the Egyptian desert. If it's ramping up it has to now or very soon-because that's gonna hurt. 

[Chinook]

46 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

They are reaching IMHO.  No drop in pressure and FL winds the same?  That tail radar measurement I bet was due to pulsing convection transitory spot wind, rather than true gradient.  And the Dvorak does not support 85 kt winds.  One observation does not take precedence over several observations that show the contrary.  I just find if they can hedge higher for system threading land, they will.

Yes, I think most of the winds on the latest recon were just about 70kt, if a bit more, and then surface winds should be lower than flight level, by 10 kt. I think the continued pressure of about 978mb supports relatively the same as this morning's recon, which may have had a bit of 75-80kt flight level.

[vortex95]

4 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Yes, I think most of the winds on the latest recon were just about 70kt, if a bit more, and then surface winds should be lower than flight level, by 10 kt. I think the continued pressure of about 978mb supports relatively the same as this morning's recon, which may have had a bit of 75-80kt flight level.

FL wind reduction to sfc
700 - 90%
850 - 80%
925 - 75%
300 m - 80%
150 m mean layer - 85%

However,
Sfc-700 mb wind ratios vary from TC to TC and can range from ~70% to  >100%.  But departures from standard adjustment cannot be determined from just a few sondes b/c of convective vigor, eye wall structure/cycle, RMW, and/or low-level stability/cooler waters.

In order for 700 winds to be 100% at the sfc, I think you need an exceptional eye wall ring and the hurricane in RI mode, like Andrew was at landfall.  Also, CGs in the eye wall indicating better updraft/downdraft couplets.

[vortex95]

Another HU warm eddy RI?  Opal in Oct 1995.

80 > 130 kt in 22 hr
130 > 100 kt in 12 hr (100 at landfall).

19951003, 1200,  , HU, 22.8N,  91.6W,  80,  968, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999
19951003, 1800,  , HU, 23.5N,  91.0W,  85,  965, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999
19951004, 0000,  , HU, 24.5N,  90.1W, 100,  953, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999
19951004, 0600,  , HU, 25.9N,  89.4W, 110,  935, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999
19951004, 1000, I, HU, 26.6N,  88.8W, 130,  916, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999
19951004, 1200,  , HU, 27.3N,  88.5W, 130,  919, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999
19951004, 1800,  , HU, 29.0N,  87.7W, 110,  938, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999
19951004, 2200, L, HU, 30.3N,  87.1W, 100,  942, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999, -999,   50

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, TriPol said:

As I said, it'll hit Cat 3 before landfall.

Doubt it...my call from yesterday still looks good...110mph peak overnight before a Destin, FL LF early Sat at 90mph. Famous last words....lol

[Coach McGuirk]

Ugliest looking cat 2 ever.  El-Nino is a true hurricane killer. 

[Coach McGuirk]

It might look like a Nor'easter by landfall. 

[cptcatz]

9 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

It might look like a Nor'easter by landfall. 

I mean the noreaster last week looked far better than this does

[NavarreDon]

Amazing outflow sunset in the W FL Panhandle tonight!




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[cptcatz]

Anyone know what's up with the recon plane? Going in weird directions and altitude is all over the place

[Scottie16]

Starting to show its new eye wall.


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[olafminesaw]

31 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Anyone know what's up with the recon plane? Going in weird directions and altitude is all over the place

Looks like it had to abort the mission although it's weird it didn't fly back to where it took off 

[SnowenOutThere]

Getting that look now with concentric towers going up on either side of the eye. Shame the Hurricane Hunters had to pull out, hopefully a new mission goes out soon. 

[Coach McGuirk]

Far too much wind shear and dry air.  This thing is going to look like garbage at landfall. 

[Scottie16]

Most structure it’s had.


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[cbmclean]

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

I mean the noreaster last week looked far better than this does

 

12 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Getting that look now with concentric towers going up on either side of the eye. Shame the Hurricane Hunters had to pull out, hopefully a new mission goes out soon. 

 

5 minutes ago, Coach McGuirk said:

Far too much wind shear and dry air.  This thing is going to look like garbage at landfall. 

 

2 minutes ago, Scottie16 said:

Most structure it’s had.


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Are we all looking at the same storm?

[nycwinter]

so many times in the last 5 years a storm in the gulf that was predicted to weaken due to dry air or wind shear has gotten stronger right at landfall.

[Interstate]

Looks like it has taken it Northernly turn... You can see how it will be ripped apart with the westerly shear.

[Scott747]

35 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Looks like it had to abort the mission although it's weird it didn't fly back to where it took off 

They were scheduled to relocate to Kelly Air Base in San Antonio today and I'm assuming that's where they went too.

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Doubt it...my call from yesterday still looks good...110mph peak overnight before a Destin, FL LF early Sat at 90mph. Famous last words....lol

Idk…I’ve been a believer in GDM and the ensembles get bullish tonight on the peak. LF intensity is anyone’s guess but I’m probably with you on 90-95mph at landfall.

1 hour ago, NavarreDon said:

Amazing outflow sunset in the W FL Panhandle tonight!




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Love me some tropical sunsets. Be safe down there. I’m not chasing this one (wife’s birthday lol)

33 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Getting that look now with concentric towers going up on either side of the eye. Shame the Hurricane Hunters had to pull out, hopefully a new mission goes out soon. 

New one should be out there in a few hours. Perfect timing imo.

[NorthHillsWx]

Easily the best satellite presentation of the system’s life right now. How spicy does it want to get overnight? 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Easily the best satellite presentation of the system’s life right now. How spicy does it want to get overnight? 

With that deep ring of convection…

[NavarreDon]

Easily the best satellite presentation of the system’s life right now. How spicy does it want to get overnight? 

Totally agree, the window is shrinking but there is still time for some more fuel.


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[Coach McGuirk]

God this is an ugly looking storm.  Am I the only one?

[NorthHillsWx]

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

With that deep ring of convection…

 

5 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

Totally agree, the window is shrinking but there is still time for some more fuel.


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Regional hurricane models had a large uptick at 18z for overnight intensity. Really wouldn’t be shocked at all to see a major overnight. Also, this is never going to be a photographic hurricane, too much shear for that

[Maestrobjwa]

In this corner we have the ever-strengthening superrrr niñooo! In the other we have the shear challenger--Isaaaaías!!!