February 2026 Medium/ Long Range Discussion: Buckle Up!

[psuhoffman]

31 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

He’s been vigilant for PD3 for 23 years now 

one of these years its finally going to happen and he will take a victory lap.  BTW, if you include storms that happened before the holiday was changed to "Presidents Day" we've actually already had 4 major snowstorms that weekend.  If you stretch it to include the Friday before a PD weekend it would be 6!  The week of Feb 12-18 does seem to be a hot spot for major snowstorms.  By far the greatest frequency of 10" plus events is that week.  Other than that one week they are pretty evenly distributed randomly between mid December and mid March...but there is a weird spike that one week.  

[nw baltimore wx]

It feels like 1979 all over again!!! 

[Heisy]

Just an op run. But this lead in actually looks pretty good, nice looking 50/50

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Wow I would of thought you got a lot more snow before changeover

How did we pull of 2 inches of qpf at 15 degrees and not get a hecs lol

I held on to snow another couple hours up here but the snow started a couple hours later so it was a wash...the sleet was definitely dryer up here and less icy after the flip and I think that allowed the sleet to pile up a little bit more...it does seem like the snowcover is slightly thicker up here than in the Baltimore area for example...but honestly snowfall distribution was pretty uniform with this event until you got NW of Harrisburg where they stayed all snow and snowfall jumped up to 15" plus... but no one really got prolific snowfall totals because the best QPF occurred in the zone that ended up flipping to sleet which isn't too common but there was a really strong SW fetch at h8-h7 and it really blasted a warm layer much further north than typical when the boundary is that cold.  

Glass half full analysis: we managed to get an area wide 6-10" snow/ice storm despite a trough in the west and a system phasing way to our west

Glass half empty: we only got 6-10" and flipped to sleet despite having one of the best arctic airmasses in place in a long long time 

[wxmeddler]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

Wow I would of thought you got a lot more snow before changeover
How did we pull of 2 inches of qpf at 15 degrees and not get a hecs lol

Because the 850 low went up the Ohio Valley!

[stormtracker]

Hey guys, the GFS has a medium version of overrunning precip for PD, but you’ll never guess where it’s centered over and leaves us high and dry

 

Good thing it’s the gfs at 200.  Takeaway is we may have something to track soon. 

[caviman2201]

19 minutes ago, Ji said:

Wow I would of thought you got a lot more snow before changeover

How did we pull of 2 inches of qpf at 15 degrees and not get a hecs lol

we got a hecss... a historic east coast sleet storm

[TSSN+]

9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Hey guys, the GFS has a medium version of overrunning precip for PD, but you’ll never guess where it’s centered over and leaves us high and dry

 

Good thing it’s the gfs at 200.  Takeaway is we may have something to track soon. 

CMC close 

 

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Hey guys, the GFS has a medium version of overrunning precip for PD, but you’ll never guess where it’s centered over and leaves us high and dry

 

Good thing it’s the gfs at 200.  Takeaway is we may have something to track soon. 

I like to set my emotional compass based on what the 200 hour GFS op run shows.  It's a stable way to live your life!   

[TSSN+]

12 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

Because the 850 low went up the Ohio Valley!

What about the 850mb high? 

[Paleocene]

AI GFS has a thingy but its way north. tracks over illinois - PA, transfers, bombs out for NE

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

CMC close 

 

that reminds me a little of PD2 and I was just thinking...yea I'd love to get an all snow flush hit...but imagine if we got another QPF bomb that includes a significant amount of sleet...we'd have snow OTG up here into April!  lol 

[Solution Man]

13 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Hey guys, the GFS has a medium version of overrunning precip for PD, but you’ll never guess where it’s centered over and leaves us high and dry

 

Good thing it’s the gfs at 200.  Takeaway is we may have something to track soon. 

I trust the GFS @200 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

AI GFS has a thingy but its way north. tracks over illinois - PA, transfers, bombs out for NE

That's the front runner wave that's north of us on all guidance...it suppresses the actual threat and squashes it into nothing.  

[Heisy]

12z cmc was a MECS in the making.

Still at long range, just good to see

[mitchnick]

Just now, Ji said:

Lol. And the 1993 superstorm since 1994

Don't forget the Kennedy inauguration storm.

[Terpeast]

If I wanted to troll the forum, I would post this:

 

Oh wait... 

(its an op run 10 days away, so don't take it too seriously)

[WxUSAF]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That's the front runner wave that's north of us on all guidance...it suppresses the actual threat and squashes it into nothing.  

Maybe I just started paying any attention (likely, was focused on WWAW), but the front runner Tuesday-Wednesday sets the boundary to our south and then we want a decently strong wave to ride along it next Friday-Saturday. That’s a pretty classic order of operations for us.

[psuhoffman]

after all the complaining of a torch and end of snow threats it's going to be funny if we end up worrying about suppression and a NC snowstorm again.  

[CAPE]

17 minutes ago, Heisy said:

12z cmc was a MECS in the making.

Still at long range, just good to see

It had the strongest signal among the ens runs at 0z.

[soadforecasterx]

Give me a PD3 all snow MECS for the entire forum and you can call it a winter. 

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said:

Give me a PD3 all snow MECS for the entire forum and you can call it a winter. 

agree. give me 1-2 feet of snow and ill be okay with getting nothing from Feb 17-Feb 35

[stormy]

I am happy where we stand after the 12z GFS and GEM!!

The GFS really didn't do anything with a heavy dump on Augusta this morning because it was only 1 out of 3.

Now, we have 2 out of 3 liking a dump of snow on Va.,  14 and 15 .

2 out of 3 is much better than 1 out of 3, even if the Euro comes in dry.

[stormtracker]

32 minutes ago, Heisy said:

12z cmc was a MECS in the making.

Still at long range, just good to see

CMC was about to spark us up.  I mean, it's good to see models latching on to possibilities other than torching.

[NorthArlington101]

AIFS is suppressed for PD3 but a pretty nice look overall

[Ji]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

AIFS is suppressed for PD3 but a pretty nice look overall

i think with this new pattern that we will be in for PD3, suppression right now is a good thing. I dont think the features that have been in place for suppression now will still be there

[blizzardmeiser]

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

agree. give me 1-2 feet of snow and ill be okay with getting nothing from Feb 17-Feb 35

A lot of chatter about a blockbuster crippling storm next week.  

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said:

A lot of chatter about a blockbuster crippling storm next week.  

Please tell me  you're joking

[frd]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

i think with this new pattern that we will be in for PD3, suppression right now is a good thing. I dont think the features that have been in place for suppression now will still be there

AO and NAO are way less negative 

[Bob Chill]

As long as I get the most snow for PD3, I hope the dmv gets demolished 

...I'll show myself the door now....