Possible Record Breaking Cold + Snow Sunday 1/25 - Tuesday 1/27

[SACRUS]

3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

12Z Total QPF (Storm)  NYC 

ICON: 0.9 - 1.1
GFS: 1.1 - 1.3
GFS AI AIGFS: .09 - 1.1
GGEM: 1.1  (Partial sleet)
GEFS: 0.7 - 0.8
UKMET: 1.1 (some sleet)
Euro: 0.9 
Euro AI AIFS: 0.9 - 1.1
 

 

Just about an inch on all major QPF's

[wishcast_hater]

9 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

many years ago in nyc like 15 at least we had a 12 hour sleet storm in nyc temps in low 20's and nothing but sleet covered the sidewalks and streets and everything was covered in ice and very slippery..

Valentines Day Storm 2007

[nycwinter]

2 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

Valentines Day Storm 2007

19 years already man the time has flown on by..

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

Valentines Day Storm 2007

Ugh the sleetstorm from hell

[JonClaw]

I like to call VDay 2007 the "Scilia Gel" storm because that's what it felt like I was walking on.

[Nibor]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Ugh the sleetstorm from hell

I remember walking 3 miles in that. It was like walking on sand.

[kat5hurricane]

39 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Yes mixing is clearly a concern now with the upper level support well to our northwest on Sunday. Heights and thickness values are surging during the day on Sunday. The CMC shoots the initial shortwave south of Chicago to near Detroit and Buffalo. Then on Monday the ULL is near Sault Ste. Marie... super amped! The Euro isn't too far off. If that's correct, we'll probably have more mixing issues faster than modeled on Sunday. We may not see it until Fri when the NAM is fully in range. The ski areas of the North Country are starting to look great for a long-duration snow event. That's usually a bad sign. The 500mb chart at 0z Monday would look like a rainstorm if you didn't see the preceding panels. I think we should pump the breaks on the Kuchera and NBM snowfall maps and hope for a flatter trof evolution in subsequent model runs.

I don't see any models showing mixing issues until the main show is over so I don't agree that it's a big concern now but we need the primary low to stop trending north now, there's less wiggle room than there was 24 hours ago. Sometimes models (the windshield wiper effect) overcorrect in one direction then move back the other way before the final solution so I wouldn't be surprised if we saw some flatter solutions at 0z. Still a lot of solutions on the table.

[Winterweatherlover]

56 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Depending on the wind direction, do you think that even the mid 20's might be overdoing it?

The soundings I am seeing across the models are incredibly cold

 

If the low is as far north as CMC/Euro show then I think we are very lucky that we never get above freezing. If it's further south like the GFS then it would be colder. 

[NEG NAO]

21 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Nobody outside of the coastal plain is mixing with this storm.

 

Lets get real guys.  

define what you consider to be the Coastal Plain.

[TJW014]

56 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

is there an app i could use to make a professional snowmap?

Google My Maps. Can draw up polygons, color code them, and add descriptions for each. 

[TriPol]

15 minutes ago, wishcast_hater said:

Valentines Day Storm 2007

I hated that with a passion. Up to a few days prior, I believe we thought we were going to have a pretty decent snowstorm. Not like this, but 6 inches of snow I think? It's been almost 20 years.

[psv88]

40 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Yes mixing is clearly a concern now with the upper level support well to our northwest on Sunday. Heights and thickness values are surging during the day on Sunday. The CMC shoots the initial shortwave south of Chicago to near Detroit and Buffalo. Then on Monday the ULL is near Sault Ste. Marie... super amped! The Euro isn't too far off. If that's correct, we'll probably have more mixing issues faster than modeled on Sunday. We may not see it until Fri when the NAM is fully in range. The ski areas of the North Country are starting to look great for a long-duration snow event. That's usually a bad sign. The 500mb chart at 0z Monday would look like a rainstorm if you didn't see the preceding panels. I think we should pump the breaks on the Kuchera and NBM snowfall maps and hope for a flatter trof evolution in subsequent model runs.

Dude. We get it. It might mix. You don’t need to keep repeating it. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

My Snowmap, will adjust as we get closer.

NYC 18

DC 19

Boston 18

Philly 17

[Winterweatherlover]

44 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

definite timing issues have to be worked out as the Euro brings it in very early Sunday morning and wants to mix it here in the afternoon - while the GFS only starts the snow in the late morning

If the the primary is further north then I believe precip would come in faster but also end faster/dry slot. If the primary is further south it's slower and the coastal is the show meaning starts later, longer duration, all snow.

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

If the the primary is further north then I believe precip would come in faster but also end faster/dry slot. If the primary is further south it's slower and the coastal is the show meaning starts later, longer duration, all snow.

the first option would curb everyone's enthusiasm

[Winterweatherlover]

Basically worst case scenario is 6-10 inches SWFE type setup, a wall of snow followed by mix/dry slot.

 

Best case scenario it transfers quick to coastal all snow 12-18 inches

 

Either scenario is good!

 

[Nibor]

6 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

My Snowmap, will adjust as we get closer.

NYC 18

DC 19

Boston 18

Philly 17

Thank you for including the city names. I would have been lost without them.

[eduggs]

15 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

I don't see any models showing mixing issues until the main show is over so I don't agree that it's a big concern now but we need the primary low to stop trending north now, there's less wiggle room than there was 24 hours ago. Sometimes models (the windshield wiper effect) overcorrect in one direction then move back the other way before the final solution so I wouldn't be surprised if we saw some flatter solutions at 0z. Still a lot of solutions on the table.

Mixing signals the end of the main show, because once 700mb - 850mb rises above freezing, the WAA is over... lift has moved to our north. The duration before the main show ends has decreased over the past day or two. Mixing is associated with dryslot and a shorter duration of snow, which is why I'm concerned about it.

[Prue11]

8 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

My Snowmap, will adjust as we get closer.

NYC 18

DC 19

Boston 18

Philly 17

Eh it’s pretty rare LI especially Suffolk gets less than nyc. Banding usually sets up in Suffolk 

[Santa Claus]

nyc 0”

dc 0”

boston 0”

philly 0”

will adjust as we get closer

[Prue11]

Central Park 3” everywhere else 1-2’ lol

[the_other_guy]

Just now, Prue11 said:

Eh it’s pretty rare LI especially Suffolk gets less than nyc. Banding usually sets up in Suffolk 

Not in a mixing scenario. That happens all the time!

[eduggs]

4 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Basically worst case scenario is 6-10 inches SWFE type setup, a wall of snow followed by mix/dry slot.

 

Best case scenario it transfers quick to coastal all snow 12-18 inches

 

Either scenario is good!

 

True worst case from 4 days out is almost always 0. A reasonably plausible low low end is probably in the range of 2-4". A baseline target would be 6". 

[Jersey_Snowhole]

On the road and can’t check anything on eps and ai ensembles? Does it show mixing like operational?

[TriPol]

Just now, eduggs said:

True worst case from 4 days out is almost always 0. A reasonably plausible low low end is probably in the range of 2-4". A baseline target would be 6". 

There is no model showing 6 inches of snow for nyc right now. Nothing. Zero. We can all appreciate your need to stay conservative, but we should also stay reasonable. 

[NEG NAO]

12 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

My Snowmap, will adjust as we get closer.

NYC 18

DC 19

Boston 18

Philly 17

who gets 20 ?

[Prue11]

2 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Not in a mixing scenario. That happens all the time!

Not sold on mixing during the height of the storm. Maybe at the end but the damage will be done by then 

[North and West]

.

[SnoSki14]

13 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

My Snowmap, will adjust as we get closer.

NYC 18

DC 19

Boston 18

Philly 17

This would require the WAA snows plus snows from coastal. 

I think 6-12 is the best range area wide and that could skew in the 6-10 direction or 8-12. 

[eduggs]

Just now, TriPol said:

There is no model showing 6 inches of snow for nyc right now. Nothing. Zero. We can all appreciate your need to stay conservative, but we should also stay reasonable. 

There are several individual ensembles that show less than 6" including some that show a complete miss. There is also still time for modeling to shift much further north or south. We can all see what model consensus is right now. But that doesn't mean we can guarantee a future outcome.