Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/25 - 1/26

[TriPol]

The primary signal this upcoming weekend is for potentially record-breaking cold driven by a deep, anomalous trough settling over the region.

Guid2-meter temperatures solidly in the single digits, with readings near 5°F to around 11°F across much of the city and immediate suburbs at 12z Sunday. That places the region well below climatological norms and indicates a deeply entrenched Arctic air mass rather than transient radiational cooling. Inland locations just north and west of the city are even colder, reinforcing a strong low-level cold pool draining southward.

The coastal influence is visible but limited. While the nearby ocean slightly moderates temperatures, it is not enough to prevent NYC from remaining firmly in the freezer. The tight temperature gradient just offshore highlights how marginal changes in low-level flow could matter, but as depicted here, the city remains locked into dangerously cold conditions that would be capable of challenging daily record lows and producing dangerously low wind chills if even modest winds persist.

Cold air is firmly locked in, so any precipitation shown here would fall as snow for the NYC area. With a deep Arctic air mass in place, there are no thermal concerns. The EC-AIFS total QPF signal of roughly 2–4 inches liquid over the period would translate efficiently to snowfall, potentially with higher-than-normal ratios given the cold column. Even lighter events could accumulate quickly in this regime.

The larger takeaway is that this looks like a sustained cold, active pattern rather than a single storm threat. Storm tracks favoring the coast with NYC near the western edge of the precipitation shield suggest multiple chances for accumulating snow. Individual event details will matter, but precipitation type is not in question. In this setup, the cold does the heavy lifting; the only variables left are track, timing, and frequency.

With extremely cold temperatures in place, snowfall efficiency becomes a major factor. In an Arctic air mass like this, snow-to-liquid ratios can easily exceed climatological averages, meaning even modest liquid amounts translate into greater snowfall depth. The ECMWF Kuchera output already reflects enhanced ratios, but if the cold column deepens further or dendritic growth is maximized, actual ratios could run higher than modeled.

For NYC, that means the depicted ~6 inches is not a hard ceiling. In a very cold, well-saturated column, snowflakes tend to be fluffier and accumulate more efficiently, especially if rates increase under banding. In this setup, depth is driven less by raw QPF and more by how effectively the atmosphere converts that moisture into snow, and extreme cold tilts that equation in favor of higher totals.

 

 

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

bro u jinxed us delete it

[Franklin0529]

29 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

bro u jinxed us delete it

Weather don't care about making a storm thread lol 

[NEG NAO]

[Jersey_Snowhole]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Only hazards cold ??

[TJW014]

Nice write-up. We track. Best pattern we've had in years. Let's cash in on one. 

[Franklin0529]

3 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Nice write-up. We track. Best pattern we've had in years. Let's cash in on one. 

We're due down the shore man. I'm up in coastal Monmouth county an it's been terrible the last couple years

[RU848789]

33 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Weather don't care about making a storm thread lol 

Exactly.  Anyone who claims to be a scientist of any kind can't possibly believe in jinxes - how one ties one's shoes, wears a cap or posts on an internet weather forum has no bearing on the outcome of any event.  It's just dumb.  

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, TriPol said:

The primary signal this upcoming weekend is for potentially record-breaking cold driven by a deep, anomalous trough settling over the region.

Guid2-meter temperatures solidly in the single digits, with readings near 5°F to around 11°F across much of the city and immediate suburbs at 12z Sunday. That places the region well below climatological norms and indicates a deeply entrenched Arctic air mass rather than transient radiational cooling. Inland locations just north and west of the city are even colder, reinforcing a strong low-level cold pool draining southward.

The coastal influence is visible but limited. While the nearby ocean slightly moderates temperatures, it is not enough to prevent NYC from remaining firmly in the freezer. The tight temperature gradient just offshore highlights how marginal changes in low-level flow could matter, but as depicted here, the city remains locked into dangerously cold conditions that would be capable of challenging daily record lows and producing dangerously low wind chills if even modest winds persist.

Cold air is firmly locked in, so any precipitation shown here would fall as snow for the NYC area. With a deep Arctic air mass in place, there are no thermal concerns. The EC-AIFS total QPF signal of roughly 2–4 inches liquid over the period would translate efficiently to snowfall, potentially with higher-than-normal ratios given the cold column. Even lighter events could accumulate quickly in this regime.

The larger takeaway is that this looks like a sustained cold, active pattern rather than a single storm threat. Storm tracks favoring the coast with NYC near the western edge of the precipitation shield suggest multiple chances for accumulating snow. Individual event details will matter, but precipitation type is not in question. In this setup, the cold does the heavy lifting; the only variables left are track, timing, and frequency.

With extremely cold temperatures in place, snowfall efficiency becomes a major factor. In an Arctic air mass like this, snow-to-liquid ratios can easily exceed climatological averages, meaning even modest liquid amounts translate into greater snowfall depth. The ECMWF Kuchera output already reflects enhanced ratios, but if the cold column deepens further or dendritic growth is maximized, actual ratios could run higher than modeled.

For NYC, that means the depicted ~6 inches is not a hard ceiling. In a very cold, well-saturated column, snowflakes tend to be fluffier and accumulate more efficiently, especially if rates increase under banding. In this setup, depth is driven less by raw QPF and more by how effectively the atmosphere converts that moisture into snow, and extreme cold tilts that equation in favor of higher totals.

 

 

 

looks like the storm that shall not be named.....2/6/2010. this is not quite as massive though.

[Big Jims Videos]

hoping this is the real deal and not a "premature evaluation."

[Nibor]

Tomer is always a good read:

 

 

 

[North and West]

1 hour ago, TriPol said:

The primary signal this upcoming weekend is for potentially record-breaking cold driven by a deep, anomalous trough settling over the region.

Guid2-meter temperatures solidly in the single digits, with readings near 5°F to around 11°F across much of the city and immediate suburbs at 12z Sunday. That places the region well below climatological norms and indicates a deeply entrenched Arctic air mass rather than transient radiational cooling. Inland locations just north and west of the city are even colder, reinforcing a strong low-level cold pool draining southward.

The coastal influence is visible but limited. While the nearby ocean slightly moderates temperatures, it is not enough to prevent NYC from remaining firmly in the freezer. The tight temperature gradient just offshore highlights how marginal changes in low-level flow could matter, but as depicted here, the city remains locked into dangerously cold conditions that would be capable of challenging daily record lows and producing dangerously low wind chills if even modest winds persist.

Cold air is firmly locked in, so any precipitation shown here would fall as snow for the NYC area. With a deep Arctic air mass in place, there are no thermal concerns. The EC-AIFS total QPF signal of roughly 2–4 inches liquid over the period would translate efficiently to snowfall, potentially with higher-than-normal ratios given the cold column. Even lighter events could accumulate quickly in this regime.

The larger takeaway is that this looks like a sustained cold, active pattern rather than a single storm threat. Storm tracks favoring the coast with NYC near the western edge of the precipitation shield suggest multiple chances for accumulating snow. Individual event details will matter, but precipitation type is not in question. In this setup, the cold does the heavy lifting; the only variables left are track, timing, and frequency.

With extremely cold temperatures in place, snowfall efficiency becomes a major factor. In an Arctic air mass like this, snow-to-liquid ratios can easily exceed climatological averages, meaning even modest liquid amounts translate into greater snowfall depth. The ECMWF Kuchera output already reflects enhanced ratios, but if the cold column deepens further or dendritic growth is maximized, actual ratios could run higher than modeled.

For NYC, that means the depicted ~6 inches is not a hard ceiling. In a very cold, well-saturated column, snowflakes tend to be fluffier and accumulate more efficiently, especially if rates increase under banding. In this setup, depth is driven less by raw QPF and more by how effectively the atmosphere converts that moisture into snow, and extreme cold tilts that equation in favor of higher totals.

 

 

 

I didn't want to, but I feel like, again, it's going to be more than four hours.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 hour ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

bro u jinxed us delete it

It's not starting a thread early that makes it a problem. It's how it's presented.
 

No hysteria here, or exaggerated headlines from a scenario that may have backing from just one or two operational model runs. This is a logical well thought out presentation of what could be next weekend. More emphasis on the cold which seems high probability and less on the snow which at this time is very uncertain. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

I feel it, we are gonna have flip flops this week and ups and downs and anxiety. It’s too early. It’s gonna be a loooong week 

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I feel it, we are gonna have flip flops this week and ups and downs and anxiety. It’s too early. It’s gonna be a loooong week 

Ratios on the Northern fringe could be as high as 20:1 but these storms always hit a brick wall at some point. Hopefully that brick wall is North of I-84.

[wxman]

8 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I feel it, we are gonna have flip flops this week and ups and downs and anxiety. It’s too early. It’s gonna be a loooong week 

Has it ever been otherwise?  That's a rare bird indeed.

[cleetussnow]

14 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

It's not starting a thread early that makes it a problem. It's how it's presented.
 

No hysteria here, or exaggerated headlines from a scenario that may have backing from just one or two operational model runs. This is a logical well thought out presentation of what could be next weekend. More emphasis on the cold which seems high probability and less on the snow which at this time is very uncertain. 

Confirmed.  I just checked Tobin’s Spirit Guide.  As long as you are careful, you can start a thread without drawing the attention of the evil spirits.  

[wdrag]

From WPC this afternoon... COLD and Winter Storm.  Thread started and glad you took the bull by the horns. 

All yours:  click attached for the WPC take.  MY only concern is the ECMWF weekly ensembles are forecasting below average qpf for this period.  However it did for this past weekend and we got 2-9" in the NYC subforum with qpf  1/4-3/4 inch, drier than the weekly normal but snow. This weekly qpf forecast adjusts daily and is not excellent.  Not sure if its got the AI ensemble ingested into ecmwf.int.   No matter--- right now we're on the fringe... fringe can have large errors either way.  Once we get to D5 on AI, then we should have a little better idea.

The modeled WSSI keeps low prob major here LI south.  Suggest monitoring the WSSI-P trends...it's what WPC is using now.  Right now it's maxing south. 

[Franklin0529]

GFS AI way suppressed. Massive snowstorm in nc an Virginia 

[WestBabylonWeather]

27 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I feel it, we are gonna have flip flops this week and ups and downs and anxiety. It’s too early. It’s gonna be a loooong week 

 

1 minute ago, Franklin0529 said:

GFS AI way suppressed. Massive snowstorm in nc an Virginia 

Called it lol 

[Franklin0529]

Of course there's gonna be flip flopping. Not gonna stay the same every single run

[milleand]

[North and West]

SK? I don’t know words.


.

[Stormlover74]

Gfs does get snow up here so better than 12z

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, North and West said:

SK? I don’t know words.


.

Saskatchewan? 

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said:

Regular GFS is looking south too. Ways to go, but feeling nervous about this one given the trends. 

Its further north 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

11 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

GFS AI way suppressed. Massive snowstorm in nc an Virginia 

Someone shut down the thread, it's our only hope. 

[Prue11]

24 minutes ago, Tar Heel Snow said:

Regular GFS is looking south too. Ways to go, but feeling nervous about this one given the trends. 

We have to hope the cold air coming in Friday isn’t as strong as forecasted. Less suppression 

[Jt17]

We have to hope the cold air coming in Friday isn’t as strong as forecasted. Less suppression 

There are no trends yet - the gfs went way north the gfs ai went way south. Other most recent model runs blast the area.


.

[snowman19]