Extreme Cold, Snow & Sleet: SECS 1/24 - 1/26

[Stormlover74]

Rrfs follows

[sussexcountyobs]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

19 and sleet lol

 

Location of that please? Can't figure it out?

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

It is but it mainly only helps places between 84 and 287 this run, would need another 30 mile tick to mean much for NYC metro.

No. It gave Long Island a nice bump up 

[SACRUS]

1/24 18z nam

 

total qpf

 

 

 

total snow (10:1)

[Winterweatherlover]

I don't think the NAM will come more south but at least it ticking south brings NYC back into warning level snow and a low end disaster scenario seems less likely.

[Jt17]

It is but it mainly only helps places between 84 and 287 this run, would need another 30 mile tick to mean much for NYC metro.

Yea I mean it just did 30 miles on 1 run. 30 miles more and it will look like everything else. Then the main differences just become if the intensity - if Reggie is right everybody will be happy.


.

[SACRUS]

 

1/24 15z SREF mean

 

QPF

 

SNow (mean)

[RU848789]

Edit: updated as I had the 2:24 am map up (thought it was pm D'oh!), although the new map still has most of CNJ in an 8-12" swath, so changing the warning to 6-10" for Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer-Salem-Gloucester- Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Cumberland-Delaware-Philadelphia- Western Chester-Eastern Chester-Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-Lower Bucks seems unnecessary.  Just keep it at Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex-Mercer and SEPA and at 8-12" and put the SNJ counties at 5-8" with Monmouth/Ocean.  

 

'm missing something, as almost every model shows 6-8" of 10:1 snow for CNJ (8-11" with 13-14:1 ratios) and some show 8-11" of 10:1 snow and the NBM is still showing 9-10" (at model ratio); only the NAM shows 4-6" of 10:1. And then add another 1"+ of sleet and sticking with their 7-13" range (or 8-12" which I like better)would've been fine, IMO.  Also, as I've said since their first map came out, they should've started with 8-12" and adjusted upwards if needed; starting at 12-18" for everyone was a recipe for walking it back for 2+ days. I don't get it - and I think 6-10" for CNJ, for example, might be on the low side a little.  

 

[sussexcountyobs]

1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I don't think the NAM will come more south but at least it ticking south brings NYC back into warning level snow and a low end disaster scenario seems less likely.

There is not one reputable Meteorologist that is not calling for the city to not be in warning advisory snow. Which is 5" I believe? Maybe 6".

[nycsnow]

3 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I don't think the NAM will come more south but at least it ticking south brings NYC back into warning level snow and a low end disaster scenario seems less likely.

NYC warning criteria is 6 inches I believe so even the NAM at its worst run was close to that but yea I agree. Also everyone’s putting a lot of stock into the NAM it’s on its own 

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, sussexcountyobs said:

There is not one reputable Meteorologist that is not calling for the city to not be in warning advisory snow. Which is 5" I believe? Maybe 6".

Warning criteria is 6+

[Northof78]

Betting markets (smart money) likes the 18Z NAM for an additional 0.6" inches vs. prior to run, for an over/under for CPK is now 11.6" for the storm. 

[Nibor]

Just now, nycsnow said:

NYC warning criteria is 6 inches I believe so even the NAM at its worst run was close to that but yea I agree. Also everyone’s putting a lot of stock into the NAM it’s on its own 

It often is when there's a warm layer that the other models aren't capable of picking up. Doesn't mean the nam is right but I'll never discount it.

[psv88]

Great trends so far!!! 

[SACRUS]

 

RRFS  - 18Z

 

QPF

 

SNow 10:1

 

 

 

[Winterweatherlover]

Just now, Northof78 said:

Betting markets (smart money) likes the 18Z NAM for an additional 0.6" inches vs. prior to run, for an over/under for CPK is now 11.6" for the storm. 

I'd take the under on 11.6 at CPK

[Rjay]

8 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Location of that please? Can't figure it out?

I clicked close to nyc

[donsutherland1]

3 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

There is not one reputable Meteorologist that is not calling for the city to not be in warning advisory snow. Which is 5" I believe? Maybe 6".

Winter Storm Warning
Issued for a winter weather event in which there is more than one of the following: snow, sleet, and ice (freezing rain), and one of the warning criteria is met. The warning criteria for snow is 6 inches expected in a 12 hour period, or 8 inches expected in a 24 hour period. The warning criteria for ice is accumulations meeting or exceeding 1/2 inch.  A winter storm warning may also be issued for heavy snow combined with strong winds of 25-34 mph that will cause blowing and drifting of the snow. A warning may still be warranted if the event is expected to exceed advisory criteria, but fall just short of warning criteria and will significantly impact mass transit and/or utilities.

https://www.weather.gov/okx/wwa_definitions

[mikeysed]

2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I'd take the under on 11.6 at CPK

Just put $500 on the under. Leggooo $$

[eduggs]

RRFS looks pretty solid for Orange and Putnam - keeps it mostly snow and longer duration. Many more hours of snow for whoever can stay north of the sleet line.

[qg_omega]

1 minute ago, mikeysed said:

Just put $500 on the under. Leggooo $$

[winterwarlock]

7 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Color me confused, as the NWS-Philly updated the warnings including now having 6-10" for most of CNJ, but then just came out with the map below showing basically 9-11" for CNJ and it's still in the 8-12" color swath.  I'm missing something, as almost every model shows 6-8" of 10:1 snow for CNJ (8-11" with 13-14:1 ratios) and some show 8-11" of 10:1 snow and the NBM is still showing 9-10" (at model ratio); only the NAM shows 4-6" of 10:1. And then add another 1"+ of sleet and sticking with their 7-13" range (or 8-12" which I like better)would've been fine, IMO.

 

Also, as I've said since their first map came out, they should've started with 8-12" and adjusted upwards if needed; starting at 12-18" for everyone was a recipe for walking it back for 2+ days. I don't get it - and I think 6-10" for CNJ, for example, might be on the low side a little.  

 

Stop hugging ratios..most models are 6-10 with nam 4-6

[sussexcountyobs]

3 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I clicked close to nyc

Ok. Thanks. A Vernon, NJ sounding would be awesome! I don't know how to do it. Lol.

[greenmtnwx]

2 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

For the 10-14" numbers you need an intensifying coastal well south of our latitude. This one intensifies near Cape Cod, too late to wrap the cold air around at all levels. 

WX/PT

This is not factual.

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Stop hugging ratios..most models are 6-10 with nam 4-6

Ratios will be high to start so I buy it. 

[ILoveWinter]

5 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Most people don't follow the models as closely as us weenies and probably don't know that CPK tends to under measure snow! Seems like a nice arbitrage opportunity here lol.

[Winterweatherlover]

12 minutes ago, mikeysed said:

Just put $500 on the under. Leggooo $$

I know from sports betting this stuff is a lot harder than it seems but it would take a lot to go right for CPK to break 11.3 inches tomorrow I'd think. Let alone the fact they undermeasure.

[winterwarlock]

10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Ratios will be high to start so I buy it. 

.

The main change with this update is lowering the snow amounts by
about 2-4 inches across the entire area. The NBM snowfall totals
have also been trending downward given the guidance showing more of
a mix or changeover for many areas. We are still hitting warning
criteria for all areas at this point and therefore will maintain the
Winter Storm Warnings. The start times of the warning has been
delayed by several hours, but left the end times for now which may
be to long. Snow ratios will be high to start given the arctic air
mass in place, however these will then decrease quite a bit from
south to north as the event continues on during Sunday and Sunday
night. This will change the consistency of the snow from a dry and
fluffy type to a more moist/wet type. In areas that have a mix or
change to sleet and/or freezing rain will have an ice layer on top
of the snow which will make conditions more difficult. Not a lot of
change regarding ice amounts from freezing rain. The amount of
freezing rain realized will depend on small temperature changes
aloft whether it is sleet or freezing rain. The combination of snow,
sleet and freezing rain will result in MAJOR impacts across the
region. There is an increasing concern that some are

[Bxstormwatcher360]

A 20 to 40 mile jog se is still possible. Things are trending better as the models finally pick up the cold suppression. All layers can warm up but against a solid cold dome,its gonna be tough going warming up any level ..925,700,850 for my location atleast doesn't reach 32f/0c.

[nycsnow]