January 2026 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z EURO AI has a trough next weekend that is digging further south this run....

[WxUSAF]

Definitely a west shift on GEFS vs 12z. More like 6z, but a sharper trough. 

[Ji]

Euro looks alot better---why 18z only goes out to 144 is a mystery

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro looks alot better---why 18z only goes out to 144 is a mystery

I hate to disagree. Too far west and rounder. I prefer 12z look.

EDIT: Looks pretty different on the surface too.

[mitchnick]

12z on top, 18z below.

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I hate to disagree. Too far west and rounder. I prefer 12z look.

EDIT: Looks pretty different on the surface too.

different better or worse or well never know?

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

different better or worse or well never know?

That could be more of a timing difference. Hard to say. 

[Ji]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I hate to disagree. Too far west and rounder. I prefer 12z look.

i dunno...to me the further west it is..the more time it has to develop

[mitchnick]

Eps. 12z on top

[stormtracker]

12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

That could be more of a timing difference. Hard to say. 

Yeah, it's kinda hard to tell for me

[TSSN+]

25 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro looks alot better---why 18z only goes out to 144 is a mystery

For the euro and it being only 144 out that’s a pretty big difference at h5. Won’t get a good idea on the set up for another few days anyway. 

[stormtracker]

19 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I hate to disagree. Too far west and rounder. I prefer 12z look.

EDIT: Looks pretty different on the surface too.

Find myself kinda seeing Ji's point on this one.  But I don't know shit, so you're prob right.  Seems as tho the swing back further west would give it more time climb closer up the coast.

[stormtracker]

I also use words like wester and swirlie thing in pbp, so yeah.  Mitch is prob right.

[WxUSAF]

@mitchnick’s EPS is definitely a small step back at 18z. Only slight positive improvement is the northern stream in Canada is farther ahead than 12z. But our trough is obviously flatter.

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@mitchnick’s EPS is definitely a small step back at 18z. Only slight positive improvement is the northern stream in Canada is farther ahead than 12z. But our trough is obviously flatter.

Yep. I'm thinking Eps reflecting the flatter "mess" of 18z. But we're far enough out to get too concerned.  We do need to see 0z come back to a stronger, more consolidated vort imho. 

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

man--if this went negative just a few ticks earlier/more west

The upper levels dont support it going negative sooner. Not saying that map is correct because it is most likely not close to what will actually happen. But there are is really no upper level jet that would cause it to wrap up. Its pretty dead up top. 

 

[stormtracker]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Yep. I'm thinking Eps reflecting the flatter "mess" of 18z. But we're far enough out to get too concerned.  We do need to see 0z come back to a stronger, more consolidated vort imho. 

I think we're far enough out that people shouldn't vest one way or the other with this thing.  But, we all know how it goes here.

[CAPE]

To me the most important thing is the spacing between the lead digging shortwave and the energy riding overtop the ridge and then dropping southward. Hard to tell on the 18z as the run ends too soon, but comparing the two my guess is it would end up a tad worse than 12z.

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I think we're far enough out that people shouldn't vest one way or the other with this thing.  But, we all know how it goes here.

I am actually pretty excited about this period coming up. If we can get the PV to cooperate and displace south we could get smashed. Big if though. 

[Blizzard of 93]

47 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO AI has a trough next weekend that is digging further south this run....

It brings a decent stripe of precip on the 18th but the snow is from I-81 & west.

[aldie 22]

4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

It brings a decent stripe of precip on the 18th but the snow is from I-81 & west.

Go on? 

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

To me the most important thing is the spacing between the lead digging shortwave and the energy riding overtop the ridge and then dropping southward. Hard to tell on the 18z as the run ends too soon, but comparing the two my guess is it would end up a tad worse than 12z.

Looks like noise on the ens mean. Not much difference. Many more runs to go. No need to spend time trying to analyze micro differences between successive runs.

[Solution Man]

57 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I also use words like wester and swirlie thing in pbp, so yeah.  Mitch is prob right.

Don’t forget ass hair

[stormtracker]

15 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Don’t forget ass hair

Elite science

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

To me the most important thing is the spacing between the lead digging shortwave and the energy riding overtop the ridge and then dropping southward. Hard to tell on the 18z as the run ends too soon, but comparing the two my guess is it would end up a tad worse than 12z.

The PV will control that spacing. The models want to send in south. If that happens we are in the game. If it doesnt we are done. That is the bottom line. 

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

I also use words like wester and swirlie thing in pbp, so yeah.  Mitch is prob right.

Swirlie thing?? Lmaoooo

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, Solution Man said:

Don’t forget ass hair

Is that a technical term?? Lol

[Ralph Wiggum]

8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The PV will control that spacing. The models want to send in south. If that happens we are in the game. If it doesnt we are done. That is the bottom line. 

Can't help but recall this shtick 

[clskinsfan]

8 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Is that a technical term?? Lol

Over 50? Yes it is..

[stormtracker]

ICON fell off this run.  0z starting of fine.  Knew it was gonna be different with how that sw in the south west held together