3/16/26 Severe Weather Event Thread (Moderate Risk) | Latest: 15% TOR, 60% WIND, 5% HAIL

[MillvilleWx]

6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Quick question for the both of you. When browsing the SPC mesoanalysis page tomorrow what should I be looking for to see if the event is on track? Just wondering what values of CAPE or other parameters I should be using as a guideline for forecasting out to my peeps if things are looking better/worse than anticipated. 

Keep an eye on the cap (CIN) by the afternoon. If we can get relatively good solar insolation beyond the first batch of convection, we'll be under the gun for the main line as it migrates eastward. Forcing will be excellent, so even if we don't have the most perfect conditions near the surface, we can still get hit decently. 

[TSSN+]

0z hrrr says what severe event. Looks like some showers and garden variety storms lol

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

0z hrrr says what severe event. Looks like some showers and garden variety storms lol

I tell ya. D2 Moderate Risk is the kiss of death in these parts. It's a solid setup, but we fail more often than not in these parts.

[wxmeddler]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I tell ya. D2 Moderate Risk is the kiss of death in these parts. It's a solid setup, but we fail more often than not in these parts.

The failure mode is for sure if the squall in the TN Valley right now stays together over the mountains and wipes our moisture at 11AM. And the associated low clouds hang around with it.

[wxmeddler]

The 0z HRRR is the exact failure mode that seems most likely, the crapvection from the west hangs on and is enhanced east of the mountains by the synoptic lift. By the time the low ejects, the moisture is wiped.

[TSSN+]

11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I tell ya. D2 Moderate Risk is the kiss of death in these parts. It's a solid setup, but we fail more often than not in these parts.

I mean if this setup was in May-August I’d be little more concerned for sure but guess we will see what happens. Also it’s the hrrr so probably will change soon enough. 

[andyhb]

4 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

The 0z HRRR is the exact failure mode that seems most likely, the crapvection from the west hangs on and is enhanced east of the mountains by the synoptic lift. By the time the low ejects, the moisture is wiped.

Man that would be a massive bust if it verified.

[nj2va]

Oh so jumping ship over the HRRR isn’t just limited to winter storms? 

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Man that would be a massive bust if it verified.

I seen so many hyped up severe days for them only to produce minimal reports. Here’s hoping tomorrow is another. 

[Ji]

8 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I seen so many hyped up severe days for them only to produce minimal reports. Here’s hoping tomorrow is another. 

this has truly beeen the most hyped severe event i can remember. It would be funny if last Wednesday ends up being more impressive lol

[Eskimo Joe]

16 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Oh so jumping ship over the HRRR isn’t just limited to winter storms? 

We fail 9.9/10 times. We're just trying to stay grounded.

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea that makes no sense. I don't understand these early dismissals.

The timing could be horrid because 1-2 hours off on timing and busses could be out in the worst of it 

[PrinceFrederickWx]

This one will verify just like last week. There are no guardrails anymore, especially for severe.

[TSSN+]

Just now, WEATHER53 said:

The timing could be horrid because 1-2 hours off on timing and busses could be out in the worst of it 

Worst of the 40dbz rain 

[hstorm]

I am in the skeptical camp on this one. Threat needs to be taken seriously, of course. But in my experience we fail at these setups even more than we fail at winter storm setups. 
 

 

[LeesburgWx]

Sounds like my tee time is back on for tomorrow after reading the last page in here

[Ji]

LOL here is the NAM when all the dumb schools are letting kids out

[nj2va]

9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

We fail 9.9/10 times. We're just trying to stay grounded.

A fail with this would be a-ok with me.

[NorthArlington101]

LOL here is the NAM when all the dumb schools are letting kids out

Well, in fairness, you want to let them out when it isn’t storming!

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Well, in fairness, you want to let them out when it isn’t storming!

Nam doesn’t have any storms in the area till after 6pm 

[LeesburgWx]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

LOL here is the NAM when all the dumb schools are letting kids out

Don’t post this in your group or the moms are going to lose it

[WEATHER53]

Any earlier day stuff always saps  the strength of the later day stuff around DC.  If this is one line only later afternoon then it’s bad here.  60mph gusts+ 50/50 

[hstorm]

3k NAM does give DCA severe accumulating snow (0.7”)

[87storms]

Two of my friends texted me asking about the threat tomorrow. I’m like, bruh, I work on a federal healthcare IT contract, though ngl, I do have a decent track record on snowstorms (for my area) within my circle. I’m game for interesting weather.

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Don’t post this in your group or the moms are going to lose it

if that is how the radar actually looks like tomorrow and its nice and sunny all hell might break out lol

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

if that is how the radar actually looks like tomorrow and its nice and sunny all hell might break out lol

Sun equals storms. Nam is cloudy and capped thus why not very stormy. 

[NorthArlington101]

3k NAM does give DCA severe accumulating snow (0.7”)

I’ll assume this is the thread we’ll use for snow obs too

[TSSN+]

Little more kick on fv3

[LeesburgWx]

Check out the showers moving due north south of us. Little storm near Culpepper

[pazzo83]

1 hour ago, Heisy said:

damn that is nasty