3/16/26 Severe Weather Event Thread (Moderate Risk) | Latest: 15% TOR, 60% WIND, 5% HAIL

[wasnow215]

1 hour ago, Brianonymous said:

Thats odd, AACo schools just declared a 2hr early dismissal tomorrow.

I don't recall that ever happening. I could be wrong. Is this really going to be that bad?

Several districts have already closed entirely for tomorrow here in RVA area. Powhatan, Henrico, Chesterfield, and Goochland at least.

[yoda]

The big school district dominoes have started to fall... Fairfax just declared 3 hour early dismissal 

Prince William two hour early dismissal 

Faquier County early dismissal 

Nothing yet from Loudoun but that should be coming soon

[bncho]

1 hour ago, Scraff said:

Where’s @bnchoOnly a snow beast, but no interest in severe!? Come on dude. It’s good to be well rounded! And yes—this is how I have envisioned you to look like all winter. 

lol I just woke up from a nap. Feeling kinda under the weather right now.

last year I didn’t do any severe weather at all but I made a promise to myself to try and learn about it this year, so you likely see me a lot more active

[yoda]

Montgomery County public schools just declared early dismissal 

[Brianonymous]

The school thing is blowing my mind.. I have no idea what to anticipate here.. Is this going to be like the derecho? Or something more extended in time?

[yoda]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Montgomery County public schools just declared early dismissal 

This is on their page

Important Message: 3/15/2026 at 6:40 PM -- Refresh page to update message

 

UPDATE: CODE BLUE – The Weather Forecast Is Getting More Serious!

EARLY DISMISSAL for Monday, March 16

The National Weather Service is expressing increasing concern about the probability of severe weather on Monday. This is projected to be more significant than originally thought. Our area should be prepared for significant thunderstorms, high winds, hail and the potential for damaging tornadoes.

The timing of the most severe weather is projected to coincide with our normal school dismissal schedule, bus routes across the county and the start of many after-school activities, including athletics and practices.

[NorthArlington101]

The school thing is blowing my mind.. I have no idea what to anticipate here.. Is this going to be like the derecho? Or something more extended in time?

They just want the liability off their hands. Once one district called it off everyone was gonna follow. I’m even fairly sure OPM will send me home early if the advice going around is “be off the roads by 4.”

Unlikely this tops derecho but there is a bigger tornado threat.

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

They just want the liability off their hands. Once one district called it off everyone was gonna follow. I’m even fairly sure OPM will send me home early if the advice going around is “be off the roads by 4.”

Unlikely this tops derecho but there is a bigger tornado threat.

Wonder if UVA will cancel classes or send out an email. I know back when you went they rarely canceled but now for even 2 inch snowstorms they move stuff online. 

[Warm Nose]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

They just want the liability off their hands. Once one district called it off everyone was gonna follow. I’m even fairly sure OPM will send me home early if the advice going around is “be off the roads by 4.”

Unlikely this tops derecho but there is a bigger tornado threat.

This. Liability.

[pazzo83]

54 minutes ago, T. August said:

Too many trees here to be excited about severe anymore. One went through the house in the 2024 microburst, and just the other day when it was windy a branch fell and smashed the windshield on my car. And that was some bs 30mph stuff.

yeah i'm going to take our car and move it into a nearby parking garage tomorrow morning.

[NorthArlington101]

Wonder if UVA will cancel classes or send out an email. I know back when you went they rarely canceled but now for even 2 inch snowstorms they move stuff online. 

I think you’ll get classes after 2pm canceled. Though UVA actually has designated storm shelters on-Grounds so maybe they’ll be a little more willing to give it a go. I recall a tornado threat day where I was in class watching the radar so they obviously didn’t cancel that day!

[yoda]

Stafford and Spotsylvania closed - but are doing asynchronous learning online 

[Eskimo Joe]

13 minutes ago, Brianonymous said:

The school thing is blowing my mind.. I have no idea what to anticipate here.. Is this going to be like the derecho? Or something more extended in time?

Yea that makes no sense. I don't understand these early dismissals.

[Warm Nose]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea that makes no sense. I don't understand these early dismissals.

These districts dismiss for cold so it shouldn't come as a surprise.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

are we more worried about rogue supercells out in front or the qlcs? Or both?

[arlwx12]

As I have noted before, one source of "DC-area" closure warnings (especially on schools) is from WJLA:

Closings

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

11 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea that makes no sense. I don't understand these early dismissals.

The 18z hrrr has action popping ahead of the main line just as the schools are dismissing early. 

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

are we more worried about rogue supercells out in front or the qlcs? Or both?

Sounds like both to me.

[IronTy]

According to my sister in Charlotte they have already canceled schools tomorrow down there for the possible storms . What?

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Sounds like both to me.

[osfan24]

10 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

The 18z hrrr has action popping ahead of the main line just as the schools are dismissing early. 

That’s the problem with early dismissals. Do those cells pop or not?

[snowmagnet]

16 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

These districts dismiss for cold so it shouldn't come as a surprise.

Don’t judge. We are not equipped for extreme weather. I don’t want our kids out on buses in the midst of a tornado warning and high wind. 

[J.Mike]

Richmond schools are closed. All day. WOW!

[osfan24]

Latest NAM seems like the cells out ahead are confined to near the bay while HRRR like the general metro areas.

[dailylurker]

15 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

are we more worried about rogue supercells out in front or the qlcs? Or both?

I like the rogue supercell potential showing. I might even chase if there's a good target zone away from highways. I like chasing on the Eastern Shore and northern Md. Neither look great for this. We'll see. 

[NorthArlington101]

Latest NAM seems like the cells out ahead are confined to near the bay while HRRR like the general metro areas.

Probably gonna age badly but the prefrontal cells that are firing on the models verbatim don’t look that impressive. Sheared out and more like crapvection that minimizes the threat of the line later a bit. Quote me tomorrow though when the EF3 runs over my head.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Probably gonna age badly but the prefrontal cells that are firing on the models verbatim don’t look that impressive. Sheared out and more like crapvection that minimizes the threat of the line later a bit. Quote me tomorrow though when the EF3 runs over my head.

I mean honestly wouldn’t go off modeled depiction for cells. 

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I like the rogue supercell potential showing. I might even chase if there's a good target zone away from highways. I like chasing on the Eastern Shore and northern Md. Neither look great for this. We'll see. 

Depends on the model- The 3km NAM suggest you might want to head east.

[NorthArlington101]

I mean honestly wouldn’t go off modeled depiction for cells. 

The parameter space is obviously interesting. Just not seeing a lot of support for something really taking advantage of it. If a storm can get rooted, game on.

[dailylurker]

Just now, CAPE said:

Depends on the model- The 3km NAM suggest you might want to head east.

Just saw that. That's exactly what I want to see!