The “I bring the mojo” Jan 30-Feb 1 potential winter storm

[BooneWX]

Would yall get off pivotal so it’ll run faster?

[Snowncanes]

If I had to guess as to RAH’s reasoning, I think they see the trend and climo saying the low stays a little closer to the coast. Perhaps they’ve for seen that energy around Florida as fraudulent and thus doesn’t pull the low east quite as much. They’re definitely the professionals though. It won’t take much to set up a nice fgen band over the piedmont. Hopefully the upper low can tilt just a tad bit earlier, that will help too. 

[Upstate Tiger]

Snow all across NC at 12z on Saturday.  

[Grayman]

Sorry for the in my backyard question but I live close to the NC/SC border in Rockingham and we get very little coverage. Any quick thoughts? I’m so confused lol 

[Ravens94]

Wellllll 

Surface definitely has some CF but 500 is better

[PeeDeeWx]

2 minutes ago, Grayman said:

Sorry for the in my backyard question but I live close to the NC/SC border in Rockingham and we get very little coverage. Any quick thoughts? I’m so confused lol 

Long story short, you are sitting pretty.

[The Dude]

23 minutes ago, CLTWolf said:

ILM resident here. Based on the recent models posted in this thread it looks like we have a chance of 1-8 inches

2-17 inches according to ILM!

https://www.weather.gov/ilm/winter

[NorthHillsWx]

NAM is worlds better. Closes off our upper level energy and drives a uniform precipitation shield with less splotchiness. 

[Droessl]

5 minutes ago, Grayman said:

Sorry for the in my backyard question but I live close to the NC/SC border in Rockingham and we get very little coverage. Any quick thoughts? I’m so confused lol 

RAH has your low end at 5" and expected at 9". Scroll down here for a long list of cities: https://www.weather.gov/rah/winter

[Ravens94]

Tons of feedback on the Nam but closed 500 is huge. 

[NorthHillsWx]

We just might be finding consensus this afternoon. We’ll see. 

[Regan]

Interesting…

[NorthHillsWx]

It’s super out there for that model but the HRRR was about to go boom 

[Ravens94]

Baby steps 

Nam wants to still strengthen the storms in the Atlantic over the actual low off the coast.  

[MHCWEATHER]

1 hour ago, BlizzardNole said:

How disruptive would 8-12" be in that area?  I can't imagine they have many plows?  Our daughter is in Morehead City.  Sorry of the off-topic SE forum folks!  Hope you get a good storm.

Hey. I’m from Morehead just moved to Emerald Isle. But the only plows we have in Carteret County are pulled by horses, lol.

8-12”, followed by below avg temps, will keep the kids out of school for a week 

[NorthHillsWx]

NAM juiced up in pretty much all areas but Georgia 

[Orange county]

1 minute ago, MHCWEATHER said:

Hey. I’m from Morehead just moved to Emerald Isle. But the only plows we have in Carteret County are pulled by horses, lol.

8-12”, followed by below avg temps, will keep the kids out of school for a week 

Maybe the plow crew from Highway 12 can be repositioned  lol

[wake4est]

[Orange county]

NWS Garner just now

Friday Night

Snow likely, mainly after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 19. Wind chill values as low as 10. Northeast wind 7 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.

Saturday

Snow. High near 24. Wind chill values as low as 5. North wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Saturday Night

Snow, mainly before 1am. Low around 14. Blustery, with a north wind 16 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

[CLTWolf]

How confident are we about that dome over ILM

[CaryWx]

Just now, wake4est said:

Lines up with RAH afd about the band setting up around or just east of HW-1.  Just need a little NW trend over next 24hrs. 

[chris624wx]

2 minutes ago, wake4est said:

Check, please!

[btownheel]

Count me as also confused at what Raleigh is looking at, but I did look, and it does look like recent information. They’re the professionals


.

Wouldn’t be surprised if they see what Fishel discussed on a podcast that was linked in SWx this morning. He sees the coastal bombing closer to the NC Coast and hugging due to warmer Gulfstream water and ULL interaction and believes the models are struggling with that feature. That’s 40+ years of experience with NC climo talking. NWS RAH has their team with experience in our climo as well.


.

[suzbyrd]

1 minute ago, CLTWolf said:

How confident are we about that dome over ILM

I'm sitting right in the middle of that hole...geez!  And it's shown on several maps so far.

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, wake4est said:

I have such a love hate relationship with this model but happy as heck it has a clue now

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Lines up with RAH afd about the band setting up around or just east of HW-1.  Just need a little NW trend over next 24hrs. 

It’s going to be so hard to nail that band down but you want to be close to be in the game obviously. But the potential here is high high high end stuff. 

[PackGrad05]

WRAL adjusted their totals.  They are concerned about dry air being wedged between two maxima.    They said there is a dry slot showing up on "more and more models."

[NCSU_Pi]

7 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Lines up with RAH afd about the band setting up around or just east of HW-1.  Just need a little NW trend over next 24hrs. 

What's interesting to me about RAH's last product is that the dry slot is not apparent on the 90% low end, but does seem evident on the 10% high end. As if we're either getting a broad shield or getting bombed with comparative dry slots.

(IANAM, so what do I know?)

[Ravens94]

8 minutes ago, CLTWolf said:

How confident are we about that dome over ILM

I wouldn't use the nam for precip at all at this range. It's going to move every run

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Ocean temperature gradient