UnionCountyNCWX

Looks like the next couple of weeks are going to be roughly an average spring pattern. Some warmer days, some colder. Precip looks to be consistently between 1.5 inches to two inches through most model runs as we get into the beginning of May, though I'm sure some will be from thunderstorms so that will probably be some variation among locations. Rumblings have started that as we get closer to the middle of May we really start to really warm up and dry out, so we need all the rain we can get now if that's true. On a random note, I've really gotten into watching Ryan Hall's severe weather livestreams lately, especially on higher Tornado activity days. It can be decently entertaining if you haven't sat down and watched one yet.

Clearing skies in Matthews, NC ahead of the storms to come this afternoon, hopefully the sun doesn't stay out. Nothing more than a couple of passing showers so far today.

Pretty massive bust on the morning rain from Wadesboro west until you get closer to the foothills. The big area of moderate to heavy rain that models and mets called for that looked to basically form out of nowhere from the main area of precip to the east never materialized.

Latest NWS discussion for Jackson, MS is below. pretty good consensus accross most of the deep south the next couple of days, stormy, and lots of rain: (There's not a region specific forum for the deep south as they're included in the SE forum, but do we have any members in here from that region?) This current track of the upper low is a more favorable track for severe weather across our area. The surface low will track across Arkansas into Kentucky during this same time frame. Storms will be ongoing to our west, along a pre-frontal trough Wednesday morning and move across our area through the afternoon into the evening hours. Strong deep layer shear along with MU capes of 1000-1500 j/kg and mid level lapse rates of 7.0-7.5 c/km will be present on Wednesday. SPC has already issued an enhanced risk for most of the area and a moderate risk for areas along and south of the I-20 corridor. All modes of severe are possible including damaging wind gusts, large hail and strong tornadoes. The current timing looks like it will be from late Wednesday morning into late Wednesday evening before the front shifts east into Alabama. Heavy rainfall will continue to be a risk on Wednesday also, with total additional rainfall accumulations ranging from around 6-7 inches across the Delta to around 2-4 inches in the Pine Belt region through Wednesday evening. This heavy rainfall potential is already being advertised in our graphics and social media.

Man the 6z GFS is really trying to show a rough week next week across the deep south. CMC with some support as well.

Well, what once was looking somewhat dry, has been reversed. GFS looking pretty consistently wet over the run as opposed to a few days ago. 2-3 inches accross the board and isolated higher amounts pushing 4 to 6 including the smokies and the NE part of NC. That does include todays weather as well, and tomorrow for the eastern portions, but still pretty consistent fronts or LP's coming through.

GFS looks like it's drying out for most of us after this storm. The only areas picking up anything notable will be along the coast until the end of the run.

Was just thinking about how the models can't get it right when it comes to snow., they also can't do it with rain. Hell, 24 hours ago we (Piedmont area specifically) weren't supposed to see more than a couple light to moderate passing showers, then last night some mets were saying it may be a bit wetter than they originally thought, then this morning we've got widespread storms and moderate to heavy rain that's supposed to last a majority of the afternoon.

Seems to be a somewhat solid agreement of a decent shot at area wide rain next Friday, maybe weekend as well.

Looks like even long term it's gonna be a wet month. On a serious note, wouldn't be surprised if we do end up with a hot and dry summer if the La nina starts to form, so can't complain too much besides not being able to golf on my days off lol.

I'm blaming you lol

Nah, we need to dry out, forget the wet lol

I officially mow the lawn for the first time this coming Monday. Seems to line up with the beginning of Spring decently well.

Posted this in the sanitarium but I'll post here too. If you want to see an impressive HP setup, go to the 12z GFS at 228 and watch that HP build in. If this was a different winter and we had at least some things going our way, that would be a PERFECT HP for us to score.

NGL, I legit just about got mad at the 12z GFS. go to hour 228, and watch that HP build in. You LITERALLY CANNOT draw up a better HP to have during a storm, and of course we have nothing coming in during that. granted there's still no artic air around, but that is textbook HP for us to score.