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PackGrad05

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About PackGrad05

  • Rank
    PackGrad05
  • Birthday 06/08/1983

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KRDU
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Willow Spring, NC

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  1. PackGrad05

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    The weakening will give some folks a false sense of security while the impacts will remain largely the same... Am I correct in saying that this has little effect on inland areas (Like RDU) since the tropical storm winds still extend so far from the center?
  2. PackGrad05

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    That's true but it also seems a lot better organized and more symmetrical than it was earlier this morning. Perhaps ERC? I think we see a new eye emerge over the next 12 hours.
  3. PackGrad05

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    Brad Panovich doing a facebook live. Just said that he believes it'll have an opportunity to strengthen over gulf stream tomorrow... Also the core seems to be intact which helps protect it from some shear, etc....
  4. PackGrad05

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    A little dry air and shear may be affecting the storm. There is still plenty of time for it to strengthen or regain better organization (however, I hope it doesn't)
  5. PackGrad05

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    The EPS solution would be great for Central NC. Anyone have an expected wind map for Central NC if the EPS verified? I'm thinking tropical storm force gusts, at best.
  6. PackGrad05

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    It is interesting (and good for people inland) that more models are showing a stall off-shore or coastal region. This would lessen wind impacts well inland if it occurred. It is a trend to keep watching. I do believe NHC will adjust the track again with the 11AM update. Less and less of the models are showing a track inland over central NC. Meanwhile, storm appears better organized than it did last night... getting back together for more strengthening perhaps.
  7. PackGrad05

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    Movement appears to have a NW vector to it. In addition, some of the latest tropical models are more NE of the official track. Possible influence of the disturbance that flared up near the gulf earlier. That could help push it more N.
  8. PackGrad05

    Major Hurricane Florence

    Cat 4 during intensification is obtainable, but I believe it will weaken to low end Cat 3/high end Cat 2 by landfall with shear, land interaction
  9. PackGrad05

    Major Hurricane Florence

    Looking at EPS tracks... Don't like the slowdown once it gets in NC... that'll be horrible rain and flooding.....combined with any winds...oof
  10. PackGrad05

    Major Hurricane Florence

    Remember that a 5-10 days ago, everyone was saying this was nothing to worry about based on climo and position... That scenario still isn't out of the question. I've followed storms long enough to know that models can be extreme one direction but then correct once better data comes in... It will be interesting to watch the next 2-3 model runs. That will tell the tale. Need to watch the strength and location of the H, as well as the speed/strength of the storm. If I was forced to make a call right now, I would call a recurvature and a possible landfall/brush with ocracoke/hatteras before heading out to sea.
  11. PackGrad05

    Major Hurricane Florence

    These are promising signs, in my opinion. Let's hope it is the start of a new trend more north and recurving out to sea with minor land interaction. With many days to go, this is a good sign.
  12. PackGrad05

    Major Hurricane Florence

    Agreed. The storm will come as far north as the H allows.
  13. PackGrad05

    Major Hurricane Florence

    Just like with winter storms, anytime there are drastic moves in one direction, the models usually respond with a swing back in the other direction as the data comes in and they start moving toward a consensus solution... Looks like the trend of the day is a more north solution toward NC or skirting the OBX and recurvature. Let's hope that continues. I'd love to see a fish storm when all said and done.
  14. PackGrad05

    Major Hurricane Florence

    Hope this solution pans out. Hoping for a curve out to sea! Will be interesting to see the Other guidance.
  15. PackGrad05

    Major Hurricane Florence

    Yes, if I remember correctly, there was a Fujiwhara effect initiated that influenced the path.
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