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PackGrad05

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About PackGrad05

  • Rank
    PackGrad05
  • Birthday 06/08/1983

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KRDU
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Willow Spring, NC

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  1. PackGrad05

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    I agree with that. It won't ruin my kids' festivities.
  2. PackGrad05

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    It's always funny how we have the random cold days and then the days where we kind of want it to be cold (Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas) always seem to be above normal. (or it seems that way)
  3. PackGrad05

    Hurricane Michael

    I lost power for 4 hours near Fuquay in southern Wake. We had a couple hours of strong wind gusts. What's funny is we never lost power with Florence.. But these winds were a tad stronger in bursts and from the opposite direction.
  4. PackGrad05

    Hurricane Michael

    What time is that image above valid at?
  5. PackGrad05

    Hurricane Michael

    I have a good idea why. Florence was being tracked and hyped in the news almost 10 days away from landfall. There was a LOT of build up leading to the storm and people were lined up at gas stations, groceries for water, etc... Michael popped up (seemingly overnight) and many people (including the news) didn't pay much attention to it since it was in the Gulf. There wasn't the same hype and buildup until 1-2 days ago... Plus, typically a storm traveling this far really doesn't give us much impact . This is a new scenario. (for most people) Back to the meteorology: I do think the triangle will have gusty winds similar to Florence... But I'm still not sold on the gusts advertised by high res models on the backside. I definitely think we see some strong gusts as winds shift on the backside and with frontal passage, and a couple big bursts will be possible, but I don't think it will be as widespread.
  6. PackGrad05

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Can someone post the euro gust maps for NC?
  7. PackGrad05

    Hurricane Michael

    Storms weaken considerably after they make landfall. However, the location and track will affect how much, including the speed. Faster speed and a track over more flat terrain will lessen the weakening for a bit.
  8. PackGrad05

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    The weakening will give some folks a false sense of security while the impacts will remain largely the same... Am I correct in saying that this has little effect on inland areas (Like RDU) since the tropical storm winds still extend so far from the center?
  9. PackGrad05

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    That's true but it also seems a lot better organized and more symmetrical than it was earlier this morning. Perhaps ERC? I think we see a new eye emerge over the next 12 hours.
  10. PackGrad05

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    Brad Panovich doing a facebook live. Just said that he believes it'll have an opportunity to strengthen over gulf stream tomorrow... Also the core seems to be intact which helps protect it from some shear, etc....
  11. PackGrad05

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    A little dry air and shear may be affecting the storm. There is still plenty of time for it to strengthen or regain better organization (however, I hope it doesn't)
  12. PackGrad05

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    The EPS solution would be great for Central NC. Anyone have an expected wind map for Central NC if the EPS verified? I'm thinking tropical storm force gusts, at best.
  13. PackGrad05

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    It is interesting (and good for people inland) that more models are showing a stall off-shore or coastal region. This would lessen wind impacts well inland if it occurred. It is a trend to keep watching. I do believe NHC will adjust the track again with the 11AM update. Less and less of the models are showing a track inland over central NC. Meanwhile, storm appears better organized than it did last night... getting back together for more strengthening perhaps.
  14. PackGrad05

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    Movement appears to have a NW vector to it. In addition, some of the latest tropical models are more NE of the official track. Possible influence of the disturbance that flared up near the gulf earlier. That could help push it more N.
  15. PackGrad05

    Major Hurricane Florence

    Cat 4 during intensification is obtainable, but I believe it will weaken to low end Cat 3/high end Cat 2 by landfall with shear, land interaction
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