PackGrad05

A long way out but the EPS has had something the last 3 model runs around the 29/30 time period... snow perhaps.

What's ironic is that it will have more of an impact that then remnants of the one a few weeks ago. The difference it that it doesn't come with all the "hype" that the other one did.

The 18Z 3K NAM has gusts of 50-60 over central NC Saturday morning.

Way more spread than 00Z members. Lots of uncertainty.

12Z EPS members

High res NAM and HRRR are still showing a steady rain from this afternoon all the way to mid-morning. I definitely think the big story will be ponding/localized flooding. Morning commute could be messy. Scattered power outages as always. Big gradient possible across Wake (as always).

Looking at impacts for NC, particularly central NC. Getting in range of high-res models. NAM 3K is bullish on some heavy rain bands setting up, particularly Thursday morning thru mid-day. Could get pretty gusty as well during those bands. Most of central NC in flood watch now.

6Z GEFS and EPS are almost identical and tightly packed.

With so many consistent moves to the east, a move back west wouldn't be surprising at this point. It's really going to depend on the speed and the trough strength to the north.

There is still a decent amount of spread in the ensembles (both EPS and GEFS) with regards to impacts on the SE coast. The exact track will determine impacts not only at the coast, but inland.

12Z GFS is almost identical to ECMWF and EPS. Rides GA/SC coast and then turns east at Cape Fear out to sea.

6Z EPS model consensus is tight around a big bend landfall and then riding the GA/SC/NC coast up to Cape Fear. ECMWF, UKMET, and ICON largely agree. 6Z GEFS model consensus slightly west of this.

NAM definitely has higher CAPE than GFS and EURO.

Crazy how much the GFS changed. Tons of rain for NC to absolutely nothing. It'll keep wobbling.

Both the GEFS and EPS are trending in the right direction, which is all we can really watch at this time....trends.