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About PackGrad05

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  • Birthday 06/08/1983

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    Willow Spring, NC

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  1. All in all, central NC fared better than I expected. Looks like the more extreme dynamics were to the south and the timing of the day also helped tremendously.
  2. Speaking for NC, it would be a low instability until the wee morning hours on Monday. Sunday looks to be wedged in with CAD most of the day... if that eroded a little quicker, we could destabilize more. Main threat for NC (as of now) is straight-line winds as the front moves through.
  3. Based on RadarScope, the Raleigh area still has at least a couple hours of precip left.. You have to use Precipitation Depiction mode to really pick up the light snow bands.. It also appears to be backfilling a little near the triad.
  4. Looks like Wake only has about another 1-2 hours of snow before the back edge is here. They were predicting 11-12 for the cutoff. Am I missing something?
  5. They posted that around 11AM. No big deal. We ALWAYS have to overcome dry air around here before the snow gets going. That's because our cold source is usually arctic (or near arctic) air that is very dry to start with.
  6. The radar will fill in. You also have to remember that snow returns are always lighter.. I switch my radarscope to precipitation depiction mode usually.
  7. FWIW, the new run of WRAL futurecast model is now showing 2-3 inches for most of the triangle. This is in line with the NAM. Their futurecast is usually pretty conservative so I think that's a good sign.
  8. The 3K NAM holds on to precipitation later into Friday morning (3-4AM) while the HRRR tends to cut it off around midnight. This will play a big role in road conditions Friday morning. A stiff wind and dropping temps will dry a lot of the roads before they can freeze, but all this hinges on the duration of the lingering precip.
  9. Don't trust the HRRR this far out. I only use it for simulated radar during the event.
  10. I wouldn't worry about SREF means at this point. Other models still look good and we're to the point to almost quit looking at those big models and focus on the radar and satellite images as the storm is coming together.
  11. The NAM is fine. If anything, it is more in line with the realistic expectations of the other models and forecasts.
  12. Seems like it is alone with that trend and overamping the system. Really doesn't change much other than how long areas take to transition. Everyone sees snow eventually due to the storm track.
  13. That will really help road conditions by drying out the wetness before the freeze comes in!
  14. They could... but a less amped storm wouldn't bring as much warming into the mid-levels either.. I'd prefer that version.