PackGrad05

The sun coming out has only fueled the formation of some more bands to the south heading this way.

4.5" of rain in southern Wake since Wednesday morning. As of 12:30PM on Thursday 8/8

The east side is definitely juicing up more and radar returns, as well as radar models, are also increasing and beefing back up.

Definitely shifted back east a little. Not surprising. It is getting picked up quicker by that trough to the north which also explains the speeding up.

latest HRRR still shows Wake in the 4-6" range between now and 2PM Thursday.

I'm thinking it will juice back up a little once it spends some time over the water... plus the interaction with the inverted trough. Looks like heavy bands rotate through tomorrow night. I could see 4-8" easily where the heavy bands train. Precipitable water data backs this up.

That's good but wish it would start speeding up Thursday instead. Most of the rain will be dumped by Friday morning. The previous 00Z run was awfully slow. This is more similar to yesterday's 12Z run (a tad faster)

RDU will see heavy rain and localized flooding no matter what, unless it follows the GFS route.

At this point, it doesn't matter "too" much where the center of the storm tracks over the next few days. The effects will largely be the same... gusty winds in heavy bands and lots and lots of rain.

6Z GFS likes March 8 for some snow!

The end of the GFS wants to dump a lot of arctic air down onto the east coast.

The EPS and GEFS are showing snow for portions of central NC with the PD storm. EURO OP also shows it. GFS OP is a near miss. Interestingly, the GFS OP looks better in the longer range than it has with another 2-3 opportunities.

It isn't far at all. Need to watch afternoon ensemble runs.

February 18/19 has EPS and GEFS support. and EPS has some "noise" on a couple other events after that...

Still liking the look over next 7-14 days. I like the look of the storm for VD and for PD. Just need a little suppression and we are in business.