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PackGrad05

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About PackGrad05

  • Rank
    PackGrad05
  • Birthday 06/08/1983

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KRDU
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Willow Spring, NC

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  1. PackGrad05

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    We just don't get big snows in NC with very cold air. Often times, the cold air has to be right at freezing or marginal so that the storms aren't suppressed all the way down south.
  2. PackGrad05

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Often times, cold air masses are proceeded by a strong front and the day before is characterized by a strong southerly flow moving CCW around the low bringing in warm air.
  3. PackGrad05

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    January 20 looks like something to watch, but the temperatures are still marginal. January 19 looks like we get a stiff southerly wind bringing in warm air ahead of the cold air mass. I don't like the cold chasing moisture scenario. Seems like it worked out in our favor last year or 2 years ago. I remember Brad P saying there was noway we got snow out of that type of system, but then it evolved and we ended up getting something. Then it does look like the pattern turns super cold. We will see if it stays that way.
  4. PackGrad05

    January 12th-13th event

    FWIW, the SREF plumes for RDU show a mean of almost 1"... I know they aren't that reliable, but I'm still surprised they even show that.
  5. PackGrad05

    January 12th-13th event

    Are ensembles (euro) still showing anything for Monday?
  6. PackGrad05

    January 12th-13th event

    Oh well! Can't get every system! Looks like our best hope in NC is with the Monday system. European ensembles are way more aggressive with this one than the American.
  7. PackGrad05

    January 12th-13th event

    So what's the story with the precip lingering into Monday? Is that some sort of deformation band? Anything for Raleigh to get excited about?
  8. PackGrad05

    January 12th-13th event

    Once again, the low isn't going to just plow through the high. If the high retreats or weakens, that would allow the system to come north.
  9. PackGrad05

    January 12th-13th event

    With the GFS and CMC, what is the ice/sleet potential looking like for central NC?
  10. PackGrad05

    January 12th-13th event

    Not sure what specifically you are referring to, but the NAM is showing the high moving into a favorable position for a strong CAD. However, it does seem to be lacking in QPF.
  11. PackGrad05

    January 12th-13th event

    Not a lot of maps posted. That tells me all I need to know about the model runs last night. While snow seems to be out of the picture for my area, I am still intrigued by sleet/freezing rain possibilities. Overall, this setup reminds me of the last one. My area of Wake got about 2 hours of snow and then a bunch of sleet and plain rain. Even the next day, it was mostly rain.
  12. PackGrad05

    January 12th-13th event

    Oh.. So today's model runs were definitely not good for central NC. On to tomorrow!
  13. PackGrad05

    January 12th-13th event

    according to GFS, right? Euro/eps still more strung out?
  14. PackGrad05

    January 12th-13th event

    NWS RAH mentioned confluence to the north as being something that would aid this system.
  15. PackGrad05

    January 12th-13th event

    Not looking great for Raleigh at the moment. Maybe a little mix before a changeover to rain. I think everyone in Piedmont turns over to rain and most of the accumulation (if any) melts by mid-day. Same thing with the last system.
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