PackGrad05
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Everything posted by PackGrad05
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While the temperature isn't warm enough for my Bermuda to take off yet, I would like a little moisture to help green it up. With that said, I've absolutely loved all the time outside my family has been able to spend...especially with no humidity and sweating to worry about.
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The Apps/Smokies better keep their eye on things tomorrow night!
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Unfortunately, yesterday was a big bust. No other way to put it. That just goes to show how complicated the science is. With that said, both NWS and local mets consistently explained ways that this could end up being less of a big deal.. However, it is tricky because you want people to be prepared in case the ingredients do come together in a Level 3/4 fashion.
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For those who follow Greg Fishel on facebook, he pretty much nailed it. He was never completely sold on it and then quickly identified the mesolow that formed this afternoon.
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I'm in southern wake near Fuquay and up to 68 with a soupy dewpoint.
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I'm in Southern Wake and already up to 62.
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For central NC, it looks like the main time to watch is between 3-8PM. HRRR has consistently shown some showers/storms around 4PM, but then fires up a more severe looking cluster of cells between 6-8PM.
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both RAH and local Mets have said that the warm air really wouldn’t surge up here until after 12 noon if it did. So I’ll hold off on until tonight to see if things remain stable. It’s only 9:55am
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Would you say that the probability of no tornados per unit area in a high risk area is the same as a tornado per unit area in the slight risk area? Areas in the high risk had tornados. A majority of the tornado reports (as of that graphic) were in the high area. What percentage of the high risk area needs to have a tornado for it not to be considered a bust? You could argue that sliver of the slight was also a bust since it had numerous warnings and a tornado report... or could you?
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Here is the specific wording from RAH this afternoon. They agree the wedge may be stubborn, but also believe the boundary will be the focus.
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As for central NC, RAH said earlier in their discussion they felt like the focus of the severe weather would be along US-1 (30 miles either side) due to location of the front and dynamics associated with it. They actually mentioned this location would be the worst of it potentially. This is something models would have a hard time showing in their output. With that said, they also mentioned several caveats that could decrease the activity. I hope all of them come true.
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latest HRRR and 3K NAM not looking too bad for central NC either. Primarily one main line of broken cells around 4-5PM. Just wondering if they aren't handling it properly?
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I saw a meteorologist from MS post last night that by dark, people would be calling him an idiot, and he expected most of their action to take place after dark. I can't find it now or remember who it was.
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Personally, I was surprised with the large moderate area for NC/SC. I knew there would be a moderate area, but I was surprised at the northern extent of it. I think this is where experience with CAD comes into play. It will truly be a question of how far north and west the CAD erodes during the day... The moderate area looks to align with your typical ice/rain border in winter weather.
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is TorCon their version of sig tor parameter? Or is it something different?
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I'm surprised they went with the enhanced for such a large area so far in advance. Seems it would've been better to go with a large slight and then increase to enhanced as needed. Unless they wanted to raise awareness early.
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New run of WRAL future cast model shows a less widespread event for central NC. They are hopeful trend will continue and level 3 area be trimmed back.
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WRAL just said they have noticed a trend with “storm energy” (probably CAPE) being higher east of Raleigh. Said they are watching to see if the level 3 area is trimmed back tomorrow.
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What do you mean by better? Better for creating severe weather or better as in less severe weather?
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The 3K NAM doesn't show anything severe over central NC before 8PM. (that's when it currently ends). At 8PM, a line of storms is popping over the mountains GFS much quicker... Timing still up in the air.
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NAM shows a good amount of 0-3km helicity over NC on Thursday... Sig Tor Parameter around 1-2. . Limiting factor appears to be instability... progression of warm front and time of day will play big.
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Which NAM product are you looking at?
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More fantasy snow on 6Z GFS for March 29.
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This has actually been one of the "coldest overall" winters I can remember in recent years. Yes, we haven't had brutally cold arctic temperatures, but we also haven't had anything over 70 since Dec. 13 (until today for RDU). It has consistently been where it is supposed to be, or a little lower at times.
