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Everything posted by PackGrad05

  1. Just noticed the February 27-28 potential. Right now it looks very similar to the way the last system panned out. The low too far offshore and the potential for some flurries as the upper level energy swings through. Something to watch for sure.
  2. I still think we get at least one more winter system to track.
  3. The problem is, Brad routinely posts vlogs when there is an upcoming system of any significance. In that video, he explains, in an easy to understand way, the reality of the forecast and what may or may not happen. However, people do not take the time to watch or listen and instead will believe a fantasy model they see posted. I'm sure this is super frustrating as a broadcast met. He is trying to do his best to debunk taking those maps for face value. I think this is a great way to illustrate it.
  4. Even the Sunday night round has pretty much vanished. This is a wrap. (For central NC)
  5. WRAL futurecasf shows a nice burst of snow Monday morning. They said they are watching that for more impacts.
  6. Really the only thing that intrigues me at this point are Monday morning commute implications. Some models (GFS) shows potential for some stuff Sunday night and temperatures will dip below freezing.
  7. That image is showing snow in central NC at 1AM on Monday morning. The timing is good and that could put down a quick dusting or so.
  8. Overall axis/focus point of the precip is the same...difference is QPF.
  9. From mike maze: Both the European and the GFS are still showing some snow on Sunday, which at this time should not stick. The timing on both shows it to be a morning event and so later in the weather should be mostly dry. Tune in at 10PM on Fox 50 to see how this evolves. @WRALWeather
  10. European ensemble shows 10% chance of Raleigh getting 1 inch.
  11. WRAL just said odds are increasing this afternoon. However warm ground temps would limit accumulations to elevated surfaces near VA border.
  12. That sounds very similar to the other system we had. The coastal low was not a player and we had to get snow from the trough swinging through.
  13. We had a lot longer period of warm weather in December around Christmas.
  14. I believe one of the main waves is still over the north pacific....so that will limit the amount of accurate data you get
  15. If the rates are good enough, it will accumulate, but turn into a slushy mess and be gone as soon as rates let up... If rates aren't good enough, it is a rain/snow mix. I'd love to see cold air trend a little better.
  16. Temperatures are iffy with this. Would be a rain/snow mix as it stands now.... Based on current models, accumulation would be tough. Several warm and SUNNY days ahead of this will limit initial accumulations and especially on roads (good thing)
  17. WRAL mentioned the evening runs showed a little more wintry weather, so something to keep an eye on... But they also mentioned that the day before would be close to 70 so it would be hard for anything to stick.
  18. Regardless, we still have days for this to trend better. Unlike the last systems which were more the beginning of the weekend, this is more of a sunday/monday event. so we are still at the 5-6 day mark.
  19. WWA currently doesn't include Wake.. But the RAH discussion states: Given the aforementioned setup... where the subfreezing temps already exist north of the Albemarle- Sanford-Franklin line... it appears that is the area that will have the best chance to see a brief period of light freezing rain before waa allows precip to change to all rain.
  20. RAH issued a hazardous weather outlook for the chance of a brief wintry mix Monday morning... However, I just looked at the HRRR, NAM 3K, and they show just rain... temperature above freezing by the time precip arrives. RGEM still shows a brief period.
  21. Maybe I’m more of an optimist, but for ab event coming Saturday night/Sunday morning, there is still a good amount of time to watch.
  22. Suppressed is good at this point. Rather it be that way than too far NW.
  23. Certainly don't want anything that will cause a bunch of issues, ie. ice. The good thing is we have several days where the temperature does not get below freezing and even reaches the 60s. That will keep road temps up quite a bit for a while at least.
  24. Yes, freezing rain accrual is a self-limiting process UNLESS you have a constant, reinforcing supply of shallow cold air... In other words around here, you need a strong and persistent CAD for the duration that doesn't erode or retreat.
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