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PackGrad05

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Everything posted by PackGrad05

  1. PackGrad05
    Ignore that blip. No way it is that accurate with that little nook. Wake would be higher .
  2. PackGrad05
    Wral will put out their first call totals tomorrow. Expect it to match whatever the EURO ENSEMBLE (their exclusive product) shows. .
  3. PackGrad05
    The NAM is still great for central NC. More realistic totals for sure. .
  4. PackGrad05
    NAM didn’t do well with the last storm. And doesn’t perform well with Miller A in general. .
  5. PackGrad05
    That was an objective fact based on their model run. There was no opinion or subjectivity paired with it.
  6. PackGrad05
    WRAL futurecast showing a warm nose for central NC at the beginning of the storm before it pivots out.
  7. PackGrad05
    Wral continuing to lean toward euro. Every single time. They post the euro ensemble probabilities. Maze did say not to put much stock in 18z. He said it is an "off-hour" run and they prefer 00z and 12z .
  8. PackGrad05
    For the folks concerned about NW trends, even if this trends stronger and NW, the MILLER A will still pull down cold air on the backside and produce a lot of snow.
  9. PackGrad05
    It isn't a Miller B. It's Miller A.
  10. PackGrad05
    Meanwhile, all the Mets, including Brad P were saying cold air was locked and this would be snow or nothing. Surprised they say that stuff so early!!! .
  11. PackGrad05
    2 things: I've cringed when meteorologists on TV have said "this is either snow or nothing, no rain or mixing". Way too early to say that... This thing can still trend inland and bring rain to central NC. Mike Maze just said that the Euro came in with more snow but it was an "Off-hour run" that they don't put as much stock in.
  12. PackGrad05
    Maze just doubled down and said he’s leaning toward the euro .
  13. PackGrad05
    Mike maze just said American shows a boat load but European only an inch or two. Then he showed the European .
  14. PackGrad05
    It is not uncommon at all for these to trend back west as we get closer. It is only Tuesday. Just watch trends. I’ll check back in to the models tonight. No need in living and dying by every individual model. .
  15. PackGrad05
    Only worth watching trends until Thursday. At this point, the trend is for a more eastern NC system. Yes, that can change and there is still model uncertainty, but the trend is obvious right now. .
  16. PackGrad05
    We've been at 32 in Fuquay for the past two hours.
  17. PackGrad05
    Euro showing a classic I-[emoji2396]5 north signature already. .
  18. PackGrad05
    Started as sleet, but now more fzra than sleet near Fuquay .
  19. PackGrad05
    I think that is subjective... A. it isn't over yet. B. There was always a range and possibility of less ice, and that was heavily communicated.
  20. PackGrad05
    HRRR still doesn't want to bring temps above freezing in Wake
  21. PackGrad05
    They need to be careful with that messaging. Even if temps get to 34 or so overnight, it won't magically make the roads fine in the morning.
  22. PackGrad05
    Still bone dry in southern wake. Near Fuquay. .
  23. PackGrad05
    Mike Maze latest Facebook post saying less ice, melting sunday night... Lots of people commenting and really taking it the wrong way (assuming it'll be nothing now)
  24. PackGrad05
    This is the difference between a meteorologist and modelologist. He knows the science and how to use the tools, but doesn't just recite the tools.
  25. PackGrad05
    I know that a difference of a tenth of an inch could make things worse or better, but we are really splitting hairs at this point. There will be power outages, treacherous roads, and super cold temperatures, especially early in the week. Folks should prepare for the high-end amounts (which I believe they have) and just hope it underperforms.
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