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PackGrad05

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Everything posted by PackGrad05

  1. PackGrad05
    Model is depicting loss of moisture from storms to south. Mike maze said he’s watching .
  2. PackGrad05
    The convection would only impact moisture on the front end for foothills. Once the low spins up off the coast that’s when central nc gets most precipitation anyway .
  3. PackGrad05
    Mike maze just mentioned the storms blocking moisture transport .
  4. PackGrad05
    I think RAL is too high for south wake. They should have kept their original dusting to one inch. .
  5. PackGrad05
    Man, we really are back. I haven’t heard the convection robbing moisture argument in over four years. It does also depend on the orientation of the convection. .
  6. PackGrad05
    HRRR looks really nice for central NC. Continues light precipitation into Thursday morning.
  7. PackGrad05
    WRAL UPDATED MAPS
  8. PackGrad05
  9. PackGrad05
    For Wake, looks like precipitation begins between 11-1.
  10. PackGrad05
    Messaging during winter storms is so so difficult. Everyone I talk to here in Wake is latching on to "snow snow snow." There will be a lot of people tomorrow calling this a huge bust, even though scenarios and worst/best case scenarios have been explained ad nauseum.
  11. PackGrad05
    The 12Z HRRR increased from the last run. It also showed light precip lasting until Thursday morning around sunrise.
  12. PackGrad05
    Was it downgraded if it was never really a winter storm warning
  13. PackGrad05
    12Z HRRR is looking better
  14. PackGrad05
    Really intrigued with the NAM and other models showing some light snow Thursday morning also.
  15. PackGrad05
    I'm also just now catching up on overnight runs. The 12K NAM is the one showing the most, when last night it was the 3K. Take the average most likely.
  16. PackGrad05
    That's one of the reasons in previous pages yesterday, I mentioned that I don't see any place in Wake getting more than 2"... South of downtown, I fully expect trace to half inch of snow/sleet mix.
  17. PackGrad05
    Same thing happened during this system. Models had Raleigh getting a good hit, but eventually went to a trace.
  18. PackGrad05
    Important to note that the HRRR was still going and probably had another 6 hours of precip left for most areas.
  19. PackGrad05
    The HRRR was a beaut. Really nice banding the last 6 hours of the run.
  20. PackGrad05
    I just don't see any place in Wake getting more than 2" of snow, with most areas getting less than 1". I think model snowfall is overdone because sleet will be mixed in like crazy. I'm looking at thermals, QPF, and also what I know about climo around here.
  21. PackGrad05
    For Wake, my official prediction is: 1-2" North of Downtown Raleigh Trace of snow south of Downtown Raleigh, mainly a mix.
  22. PackGrad05
    My bottom corner of Wake didn't quite get NAM'd haha. I'm still expecting a sleet bomb
  23. PackGrad05
    The NAM is a much longer duration event than other models.
  24. PackGrad05
  25. PackGrad05
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