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Everything posted by PackGrad05

  1. Thanks. Didn’t Realize the brief duration of warmup until I just checked the forecast.
  2. Antecedent temperatures will be really warm. Ground and road will warm up quick.
  3. Don’t fret too much by looking at long range. Remember the long range showed this being a monster storm for us. Things change. we still have a good amount of time. Yes it does get more difficult but February and even March have produced big ones.
  4. RAH discussion looks fine to me. I never really expected more than an inch here in southern Wake. We will see what happens.
  5. 3K NAM looks decent for Wake. Nice 6-8 hour period of light snow, taken verbatim. Granted, boundary layer temps are above freezing at the onset so a lot of it melts on contact... I think an inch on the ground would be a win for Wake.
  6. Snow will likely still be falling at the end of that HRRR run. That won't represent storm totals.
  7. So it looks like a ~6 hour period of light snow for central NC.
  8. I put "bad" and "good" in quotation marks because it is subjective (whether you want snow or don't want snow). I just meant that sometimes we praise the NAM when it shows what we want, but discuss how it is inaccurate when it doesn't show desired outcomes.
  9. I think the last few weeks has shown that the NAM is not reliable at all. Brad P even mentioned concerns about its reliability over the last few years since they are transitioning to FV3 and HRRR. If you throw out the "bad runs", you also need to throw out the "good" runs.
  10. Verbatim it shows 5-6 hours of snow... That's a nice event for our area, even if it is an inch or so.
  11. I'm watching it and that band pivots right through central NC.
  12. WRAL's first hand-drawn call map for this system.
  13. Cue the local mets showing trends decreasing with euro ensemble probabilities.
  14. Euro ensembles are what matters. Waiting on those.
  15. Remember this is the same time period that many models lost the storm last week only to trend back with better data as the date drew near.
  16. EURO has been most consistent with this event. Interested to see what 12Z ensembles show. Other guidance appears to be trending that way.
  17. Still plenty of time. Nothing has really changed over the past 2-3 days if you look at the big picture. Still looks like a rain/snow event with light amounts possible over central NC.
  18. Euro has been most consistent so far. Less fluctuations.
  19. Great article about how ensembles work if anyone is interested. https://www.wral.com/how-wral-meteorologists-use-ensemble-forecasting-to-determine-the-chance-of-1-or-3-snow-in-your-town/20099023/
  20. Latest from local station. I think they have just resorted to posting EURO ensemble probabilities and just update it every 6 hours.
  21. The latest update from WRAL. Posting European ensembles again. https://twitter.com/mazewx66/status/1486087212534050817?s=21
  22. From Mike Maze: Many folks have been reaching out about the possibility of a major winter storm this weekend. Today's model runs are not showing it at all. Here's a look at the European Ensemble probabilities for 1" of snow ending Saturday night. Does not look good to me right now. Ensemble map shows 26% chance of 1" of snow for Wake.
  23. Starts as rain and then changes to snow as it gets cranking.
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