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Everything posted by PackGrad05

  1. I thought RDU already accorded a trace, which counts.
  2. The 00Z EPS rebounded quite a bit from yesterdays 12Z. 25/50 members showing something vs 5/50 last night. GEFS not on board as much. .
  3. 12Z EPS decreased a good bit from 00Z, but not a complete wash. 12Z GEFS is still showing a good thump of snow around 2/3. With perhaps more around 2/8-2/10.
  4. 12Z EPS looks pretty much the same as 0Z for central NC. 1" of snow is the mean. 12Z GEFS is just as good, if not better.
  5. The good thing is both the GEFS and EPS show "some" snow for central NC in the first week of Feb time frame.
  6. EPS still looks interesting between 2/3 and 2/6. Members all over the place.
  7. EPS has a good number of members showing something around Feb. 5 as well.
  8. I've said it before, but I think we will end up with an event that pops up within the 5-7 day range suddenly and is marginal (as always) but is a surprise. It'll probably be sandwiched between two warm-ups. That's typically the NC way in these types of patterns.
  9. The EPS has been signaling an unsettled pattern for 25-30 time period for a while now, as I mentioned on the last couple pages.
  10. EPS still has "activity" around 27-30 timeframe...something to watch at least.
  11. EPS still looks interesting for the 1/25-1/26 time period. And tonight's "flurry" event is a perfect example of how quickly things can change. I know it isn't really a big deal, but it only popped up in the past 1-2 days.
  12. The 12Z EPS still had some members showing snow for RDU around 24/25. We don't need extended cold around here. We just need the cold and moisture to sync up at the right time. Most of the recent snows in central NC have barely stuck to the roads (if at all) and were melted off the grass by the next day or two.
  13. The 23/24 time period looks like it could be worth watching. EPS and GEFS both show some members with some snow for NC. Way out I know, but the only thing even remotely interesting over next 2 weeks unless something random pops up.
  14. Climatologically, February is not that far off from January for RDU in amount of snow. Yes, January is the best chance, but February has produced great events. Once we get to February 20 is when I start getting more concerned. Being completely blanked is still on the table for sure. But so is getting a 10" storm.
  15. It was fun while it lasted, unless trends boomerang back the other direction. EPS reduced probabilities dramatically... Less than 10 members showing anything (trace or so) for RDU.
  16. The 18Z GEFS looks very similar to the 12Z EPS, with most of the good snow being west of I-85... The GEFS also shows the precipitation beginning on Friday 1/13 and lasting until 1/15. Temperatures too warm for central NC. EURO shows highs near 37 on Saturday during bulk of precip. Triad and west stays around freezing.
  17. And that model (at least the maps I'm looking at), ends at 00Z on 1/14. The EPS shows the bulk of the precip 12-24 hours after that.
  18. The number of individual members of EPS showing something for RDU increased to around 19/50. The mean also increased to almost an inch.
  19. The 12Z EPS is a "west of 85" storm. Anything east of 85 is a trace to half inch at best.
  20. The 00Z EPS continued to look decent with almost half the members showing something for RDU. . GEFS isn't sold yet, with only a couple members showing anything (but at least it isn't blank)
  21. Roughly 16 out of 50 EPS members (1/4 00Z) have at least something for RDU around the 1/15 time period. This has increased since yesterday's runs.
  22. We missed the chance with the prolonged cold. Unless the pattern shifts, we are going to need to rely on great timing with a quick cold blast and a low moving in a favorable path. That's typically what we end up getting anyway. Snow in the morning and melted by the afternoon. The ensembles do show some members picking up on a system around the 15th.
  23. EPS is showing 66 for New Year's Day. GEFS showing 69. Cool down after that. Climatologically, timeframe around MLK Holiday is always good for us.
  24. We are still a week or more away. When was the last time we tracked anything that came to fruition 7-10 days away? I’ll write this off once we are within 5 days. .
  25. To me, that looks like a frontal boundary headed east. I would expect that cold air (not as cold, but cold) to move east after this image.
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