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PackGrad05

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Everything posted by PackGrad05

  1. PackGrad05
    Starting to look at high res models for tomorrow morning for Raleigh. Looks like a nasty line will come through during morning commute. Gotta look out for gusty winds in that band (40 or so) and potential tornadoes.
  2. PackGrad05
    Really banking on that Fujiwara from the ULL. That's the wildcard, IMO.
  3. PackGrad05
    Based on those model outputs recently posted, Raleigh may not see much of any rain at all.
  4. PackGrad05
    The GEFS ensemble mean is pretty much identical to previous runs... the members have just tightened around the mean.
  5. PackGrad05
    Those models put central NC into the right front quadrant. Heavy rain bands and potential rotating storms. .
  6. PackGrad05
    The latest RAH Discussion does a good job of explaining that the certain models (NAM included) are having feedback issues and are not being heavily considered at this time.
  7. PackGrad05
    The sun coming out has only fueled the formation of some more bands to the south heading this way.
  8. PackGrad05
    4.5" of rain in southern Wake since Wednesday morning. As of 12:30PM on Thursday 8/8
  9. PackGrad05
    The east side is definitely juicing up more and radar returns, as well as radar models, are also increasing and beefing back up.
  10. PackGrad05
    Definitely shifted back east a little. Not surprising. It is getting picked up quicker by that trough to the north which also explains the speeding up.
  11. PackGrad05
    latest HRRR still shows Wake in the 4-6" range between now and 2PM Thursday.
  12. PackGrad05
    I'm thinking it will juice back up a little once it spends some time over the water... plus the interaction with the inverted trough. Looks like heavy bands rotate through tomorrow night. I could see 4-8" easily where the heavy bands train. Precipitable water data backs this up.
  13. PackGrad05
    That's good but wish it would start speeding up Thursday instead. Most of the rain will be dumped by Friday morning. The previous 00Z run was awfully slow. This is more similar to yesterday's 12Z run (a tad faster)
  14. PackGrad05
    RDU will see heavy rain and localized flooding no matter what, unless it follows the GFS route.
  15. PackGrad05
    At this point, it doesn't matter "too" much where the center of the storm tracks over the next few days. The effects will largely be the same... gusty winds in heavy bands and lots and lots of rain.
  16. PackGrad05
    6Z GFS likes March 8 for some snow!
  17. PackGrad05
    The end of the GFS wants to dump a lot of arctic air down onto the east coast.
  18. PackGrad05
    The EPS and GEFS are showing snow for portions of central NC with the PD storm. EURO OP also shows it. GFS OP is a near miss. Interestingly, the GFS OP looks better in the longer range than it has with another 2-3 opportunities.
  19. PackGrad05
    It isn't far at all. Need to watch afternoon ensemble runs.
  20. PackGrad05
    February 18/19 has EPS and GEFS support. and EPS has some "noise" on a couple other events after that...
  21. PackGrad05
    Still liking the look over next 7-14 days. I like the look of the storm for VD and for PD. Just need a little suppression and we are in business.
  22. PackGrad05
    If you are basing your predictions on a each model run of the OP GFS, then you might as well just look at your apple weather app. The overall pattern over the next two weeks is as good as we can hope for. At least 2-4 storms rolling through the south and a chance to hook up with some cold air. The EPS looks the best it has looked this morning. GEFS coming on board as well.
  23. PackGrad05
    18Z OP GFS looked nice to me. Plenty of chances to reel something in. EPS and ensembles still have noise, too.
  24. PackGrad05
    Source? Link?
  25. PackGrad05
    Pattern between 2/14 and 2/25 still looks really nice.
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