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PackGrad05

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Everything posted by PackGrad05

  1. PackGrad05
    nothing but rain still in southern wake.
  2. PackGrad05
    41 in Willow Springs on my Tempest. Latest HRRR looks better.
  3. PackGrad05
    Both the NAM and HRRR want to redevelop moisture across central NC around 7-10PM
  4. PackGrad05
    True. But looks better than last Friday's system for sure.
  5. PackGrad05
    Seeing the classic pattern in the high-res models of mountain snow, followed by a piedmont lull, and a NE NC jackpot.
  6. PackGrad05
    The 12Z HRRR is not much different than the 6Z when you look at total moisture and placement.... The difference with the snowfall map is due to difference in temperatures which keep most of it cold rain for the areas that are "blanked." I'm not surprised by this because the cold air is chasing the moisture and surface temps will likely be above freezing until sunset. So there could definitely be a mix or snow falling, but not sticking.
  7. PackGrad05
    12Z EURO and EPS both increased coverage/amounts for NC for Monday's small system. GFS still leads the way with highest amounts.
  8. PackGrad05
    The rain/snow line on the 00Z HRRR is pretty much identical to 18Z. The main difference is that it reduced totals by half in NC. At least for the triangle, this has all the makings of some initial sleet/snow falling for a short period of time (if that) and then quickly going to all cold rain.
  9. PackGrad05
    18Z HRRR almost identical to 12Z for Wake
  10. PackGrad05
    Agreed. I'll take it in late December/all of January.
  11. PackGrad05
    Raleigh - November 25. I don't think we hit freezing next week during that cold snap.
  12. PackGrad05
    After looking at all the data and the runs, even though they are inconsistent, I still feel the most likely outcome is a slow approach to the SE coast and either making it inland or staying just off-shore, but then slowing down/stallings and dumping a lot of rain... The big story is going to be the rain/flooding.
  13. PackGrad05
    12Z Euro is slower than 00Z... Landfall roughly the same area, but it is slower by about 6 hours....
  14. PackGrad05
    The last 20 minutes has absolutely ripped here in southern wake. We've gained an inch in just 20 minutes!!!
  15. PackGrad05
    Finally more heavy snow near Fuquay!
  16. PackGrad05
    Dusting of snow. All sleet now and some freezing rain
  17. PackGrad05
    We've had nothing but freezing/rain sleet in southern Wake near Fuquay for the past hour.
  18. PackGrad05
    HRRR is dissipating the Thursday morning band... However, it is extending the duration of precip from this first round tonight.
  19. PackGrad05
    HRRR trends have definitely been to increase the western expanse of the precipitation and to build it back in for a slightly longer duration event.
  20. PackGrad05
    HRRR continues to look good. Isn't as drastic as NAM
  21. PackGrad05
    The 01 and 02 HRRR is picking up on a really nice banding, especially southern Wake
  22. PackGrad05
    Remember only one model is really showing that problem. HRRR doesn't look bad at all. PLUS, this only affects initial moisture transport for the front end thump... Once the low spins up off the coast, moisture will easily feed back west.
  23. PackGrad05
    Thursday morning could be better for the Triangle than Wednesday afternoon
  24. PackGrad05
    Currently the NAM is the only one really showing it. and central NC still has 1-2 inches which is what most local mets are maxing out at anyway.
  25. PackGrad05
    Model is depicting loss of moisture from storms to south. Mike maze said he’s watching .
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