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PackGrad05

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Everything posted by PackGrad05

  1. PackGrad05
    Wral just showed their Barron model and it is much snowier. They said it performed well with the last system. .
  2. PackGrad05
    Yep I saw that and deleted my post. Thanks for posting it!
  3. PackGrad05
    EURO only shows 63% chance of Raleigh getting 3 inches. According to the ensemble, which WRAL states is their exclusive product.
  4. PackGrad05
    3K NAM continues the dry slot trend, but fills it in slightly. 2-3" for central NC, including Wake. The snow really doesn't start falling until this time tomorrow. We spend all day waiting...waiting...waiting.
  5. PackGrad05
    But he also says that HRRR and NAM are both showing this.. and we would like to see them getting snowier, not less
  6. PackGrad05
    Both the HRRR and the Nam 3K are showing that huge snow void.
  7. PackGrad05
    HRRR is a disaster for the triangle. This is lining up with the thinking of a lot of meteorologists...
  8. PackGrad05
    WRAL updated their map.
  9. PackGrad05
    If you've followed Brad's videos and posts the past few days, then you understand his thinking. He has been very consistent with his concerns about a transition zone and intrusions of dry air in the triangle region. He backed this up with modeled water vapor imagery and other graphics.
  10. PackGrad05
    I think it's safe to say that most folks in the triangle (and especially Wake) will not see any substantial snow until lunch time or after... Which is going to have a lot of people around here saying, "Where is the snow!?" Trends show much of our snow coming from the coastal low
  11. PackGrad05
    Doesn't make sense for the 3K NAM to be that different than 12K. Yes, I know it is higher resolution, but that's way too much of a difference. So either the 3K is way too low or the 12K is way too high.
  12. PackGrad05
    NAM 3K much different. Pretty much 0 for Wake through 33.
  13. PackGrad05
    According to data from the NC Climate Office, in the past 50 winters at RDU (December, January, February), there have only been 25 months with a total of 3" of snow or more. That's 17%.... 3" in a month (much less a single storm), is a big deal for Raleigh. Yes, we want all want the big one, but this is Raleigh... Gotta keep it in relative perspective.
  14. PackGrad05
    12Z HRRR looks amazing for central NC. It also picks up on the "banding" nature of the convection. There will be localized higher amounts that it can't resolve at this time.
  15. PackGrad05
    WRAL sticking with 3-6" for central NC RAH also sticking with 3-7" for central NC. Matches the EURO. Latest 06Z HRRR shows 10" for Wake County
  16. PackGrad05
    Disagree with that .
  17. PackGrad05
    3k NAM has that dry slot again but further west than wake this time .
  18. PackGrad05
    Removing the outliers, the sref plume shows 6 to 15 inches for rdu .
  19. PackGrad05
    If the euro was true, Wake county would have the lowest amounts in the entire state. Including the coast. .
  20. PackGrad05
    The euro matched up perfectly with what WRAL predicted with two bullseyes with a dry wedge in between. This should only strengthen their stance. .
  21. PackGrad05
    Eyewall where is that map from? Looks similar to wral. .
  22. PackGrad05
    Mike Maze put out a PM update. He said snow total probabilities are dropping off on the Euro. Two bullseyes setting up.
  23. PackGrad05
    WRAL adjusted their totals. They are concerned about dry air being wedged between two maxima. They said there is a dry slot showing up on "more and more models."
  24. PackGrad05
    The newest HRRR looks good. Filling in nicely but only goes out to Saturday morning.
  25. PackGrad05
    Everyone relax. Don't live and die by each model run. The exact track will make a huge difference. The NAM wasn't even finished.
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