PackGrad05

The low transitions to the coast and cranks up.

The HRRR looks good. The coastal is starting to crank up which will fill in the moisture.

That's only through 1PM

Very good consistency. almost identical for NC

One of the difficulties of being a TV met is that you really only have 3 primary opportunities to communicate to the general public....AM News, lunch News, evening news... People take what you say and run with it.. Plus, you have to take time to create your graphics and your package, and by that time it is already outdated.

RAL leans heavily on their Futurecast model

It's icy for sure. I'm just looking at impacts, not snow amount. I think Wake will be an icy mix.

Very consistent

the 12Z 3K NAM has a LOT of moisture for central NC. Much longer duration event.

EURO continues to look good for central NC. Eyewall, I think that's a good looking map.

Also, beware of looking too closely at globals at this range.

UK snowfall map looks way better

That's a good trend from UK

Based on what I've seen, this was always going to be a mixed bag event for most of Wake. My mind remains unchanged.

I was getting ready to post that the EPS still showed a mighty nice hit for central NC. Much better than anything we've had in 3-4 years at this range. Now that high res models are coming into range, we should get a better look.

Reminds me a lot of this storm

Soil temperatures are fine. The high today and tomorrow will barely reach 50, if that. The low tonight is 29 and the low tomorrow night is even colder.

Everyone slow down with the pessimism. The models are coming into great agreement now that more accurate data can be fed in. This always happens. I expect the large shifts to end and expect models will be rebound slightly the other direction as they come into focus. The last system was barely 1-2 for most of Wake and was still high impact...

Does anyone remember the event within the last [emoji[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]]]] years with this exact same sweet spot? It ended up trending the same way and Raleigh was blanked. I can’t find it. .

It should also be noted that these are all snowfall maps being posted. Outside that snow is still a sleet and fzra corridor. Big impacts regardless. Also, the models are really in great agreement of a maximum over NE NC. The balloon data really helps with the model output. .

My general rule with freezing rain is to take model output and divide by 3... Even doing that, that is a still a nasty amount.