-
Posts
1,791 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by PackGrad05
-
EPS [emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]]" probability for RDU through [emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]]/[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]] went down to [emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]]]]%. Extended out to [emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]]/[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]]]] it is [emoji[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]]]]%. With that said, the probability of a dusting is way higher ([emoji[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]]]][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]][emoji[emoji638][emoji639][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji640]][emoji[emoji6[emoji640][emoji638]][emoji640][emoji6[emoji640][emoji637]]]]]]%) in the near-term. As desperate as we are, a dusting would be exciting. .
-
Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
PackGrad05 replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
EPS 1" probability for RDU through 1/11 went down to 25%. Extended out to 1/16 it is 56%. With that said, the probability of a dusting is way higher (75%) in the near-term. As desperate as we are, a dusting would be exciting. -
More often than not when models depict an arctic surge, the heart of the cold air goes west of the apps. They aren’t tall, relatively speaking, but that dense cold air has a hard time bleeding east. .
-
Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
PackGrad05 replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
GEFS has about a 25% chance of 1" for RDU with that first system. -
Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
PackGrad05 replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
Current soil temps across Wake County only range from 50-53.. Not that warm. Plus, today is the warmest it'll be by far for the next 2 weeks... Soil temps won't be an issue... and neither will roads after a few days. -
Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
PackGrad05 replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
EPS 1" probabilities for RDU dropped for the 3rd straight run... down to less than 50% now over next 14 days. -
Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
PackGrad05 replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
EPS probability of 1" of snow for RDU between now and 1/14 is around 56% GEFS also likes the 1/10-1/14 timeframe but is considerably less than what it was showing yesterday. Trends have not been favorable and, if anything, keep kicking it down the road to later dates. -
Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
PackGrad05 replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
It has stayed generally the same... 10-day probability of 1" of snow or more is around 15% for RDU. Beyond 10 days, it tops out at 2-4" mean snowfall -
Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
PackGrad05 replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
Roughly 29/50 EPS members show something (light) around 1/6. Then there is another signal between 1/8-1/11 but they are all over the place as far as timing and amounts. GEFS does not have the 1/6 event... seems to be honing in more on the other one. -
Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
PackGrad05 replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
12Z Euro shows 3-5" of snow from murphy to manteo on 1/6-1/7 -
Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
PackGrad05 replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
The 00Z EPS 1" probabilities for RDU actually decreased 20% from the 12Z runs. Went to around 50% from upwards of 70%. -
Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
PackGrad05 replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
-
Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
PackGrad05 replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
Important to note that the latest Euro ensembles seem to be focusing on two events... one in the 6/7 timeframe and another around the 9/10 timeframe. Both events have a mean of 1-2"... The second event has 7/50 members at 10"+. The majority of members are between 0-2"... -
Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
PackGrad05 replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
EPS probabilities (00Z 27 Dec) indicate about 33% chance of 1" of snow for RDU...primarily from the 1/9-1/10 system. -
Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
PackGrad05 replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
EPS shows about a 15% chance of 1" of snow for RDU through that time period. -
Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
PackGrad05 replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
while the euro op looked good, the ensembles show a 30% chance of dusting and less than 15% chance of 1" (as of now). -
Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
PackGrad05 replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
Agreed. Snowstorms around here are usually during that short cold period that is surrounded by above normal temperatures... The problem is, we aren't able to cash in on these cold streaks when they come. -
Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
PackGrad05 replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
12Z EURO looks much cooler. -
Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
PackGrad05 replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
The EPS and GEFS probabilities for snow for central NC actually increased over the last run....Still low probability, but increased. -
Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
PackGrad05 replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
December isn't over yet... Can't remember the last time we tracked a storm from 10 days out. I think something will pop up and be a "within 5 day score" if we end up getting anything. Don't need wall to wall cold... just the cold and moisture to link up at the right time. -
Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
PackGrad05 replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
Way too early to be punting to 2025. -
I hit 32.0 this morning in Willow Springs according to my Tempest. Lasted about 45 minutes.
-
Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2024
PackGrad05 replied to buckeyefan1's topic in Southeastern States
I'm in a rural area in southern Wake and haven't come close to 32. 39 is the lowest I've hit so far. Has any station in Wake, or Johnston for that matter, reported freezing temps yet?
