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PackGrad05

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Everything posted by PackGrad05

  1. PackGrad05
    Still liking the look over next 7-14 days. I like the look of the storm for VD and for PD. Just need a little suppression and we are in business.
  2. PackGrad05
    If you are basing your predictions on a each model run of the OP GFS, then you might as well just look at your apple weather app. The overall pattern over the next two weeks is as good as we can hope for. At least 2-4 storms rolling through the south and a chance to hook up with some cold air. The EPS looks the best it has looked this morning. GEFS coming on board as well.
  3. PackGrad05
    18Z OP GFS looked nice to me. Plenty of chances to reel something in. EPS and ensembles still have noise, too.
  4. PackGrad05
    Source? Link?
  5. PackGrad05
    Pattern between 2/14 and 2/25 still looks really nice.
  6. PackGrad05
    The 18Z GFS really looked nice. 3 storms with some cold air from February 14 onward. Suppressed for now for the last two.
  7. PackGrad05
    12Z GFS still has good signal for 17-20 time period. EPS on board with noise around that time as well.
  8. PackGrad05
    We are just now getting into range of the middle of February... and even that is still in fantasy land. I like the look of the long range.
  9. PackGrad05
    February 15-17 looks decent.. Definitely has the split flow look.
  10. PackGrad05
    the 18Z GFS was so close. The high pressure is less transient and the low was suppressed just enough.
  11. PackGrad05
    Not writing off this one until Thursday/Friday. Still time for it to go the other way.
  12. PackGrad05
    Yeah roughly 10 out of 30 show something for central NC... more so at the mountains.
  13. PackGrad05
    EPS and GEFS both have the 5/6 system... EPS backed off the last 3 runs.. We will see if the trend reverses. Still there, though.
  14. PackGrad05
    We have the entire month of February and even some of March. 5 days ago, we weren't even discussing February 5-6. It is still worth watching. Is it possible we go without? Absolutely. But nothing is guaranteed. There's still plenty of time.
  15. PackGrad05
    EPS shows 20% chance of 1" of snow for Wake County. GEFS shows 3% chance. GEFS pretty much lost the storm with the 18z run.
  16. PackGrad05
    Highs in the 30s are more rare than highs in the 70s this time of year. .
  17. PackGrad05
    12Z also suppressed. 50/50 low is in a good spot, but the high over the NE is weak (only 1026mb)
  18. PackGrad05
    EPS is still on board with the system, and GEFS really jumped on board. Interestingly enough, EPS also showing some flurries/trace of snow with Feb 1 system.
  19. PackGrad05
    12Z EPS probabilities increased slightly for Wake County... 44% chance of a trace and 26% chance of an inch, over next 10 days. The control run is a little faster than other models and has a classic NE NC signature around elizabeth city area
  20. PackGrad05
    EPS currently showing a 38% chance of trace of snow for Wake over next 14 days. 18% chance of 1 inch.
  21. PackGrad05
    EPS really likes the Feb 5-9 time period
  22. PackGrad05
    Last 2 runs of EPS also show snow around that time period... at least about 10/50 members
  23. PackGrad05
    6z GFS has three opportunities. Fun to see. May be gone by 12Z. .
  24. PackGrad05
    Worth mentioning that the 00Z EPS showed zilch for that time period. However, the 12Z actually had a few members show something... Grasping at straws, but at least something to watch...until dreams are crushed again.
  25. PackGrad05
    The EPS and other models only show 4 "warm" days out of the next two weeks. The rest of the days are pretty seasonal for this time of year. January 29/30 isn't far from something, either.
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