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PackGrad05

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Everything posted by PackGrad05

  1. PackGrad05
    Both the GEFS and EPS are trending in the right direction, which is all we can really watch at this time....trends.
  2. PackGrad05
    Neither of the ensembles (euro or gefs) are on board yet. The 00z ecmwf also shows zilch. .
  3. PackGrad05
    The signal on both the EPS and GEFS is honestly the best it has looked this season, especially this close to the event.
  4. PackGrad05
    I first mentioned this back on Feb. 27. EPS still has a signal for 11-13... GEFS coming on board.
  5. PackGrad05
    The EPS has had the signal for the past 3-4 days.... it is more faint now, but still there. GEFS has not been as robust... honestly the most recent run only had one member out of 30.... I'm just a snow lover at heart and want to see some falling.
  6. PackGrad05
    both the EPS and GEFS came back with a signal for March 11-13 time period.
  7. PackGrad05
    WRAL just showed wind forecast and the highest it got was around 20s tomorrow night. Didn’t act like it was a big deal here. .
  8. PackGrad05
    Classic Wake County gradient. By the time it got here (if it even was still a storm by then), it would have moved 100 miles NW.
  9. PackGrad05
    Friday isn't looking quite as bad for RDU based on the track of the low (further north and west). That's a good thing but got to keep monitoring.
  10. PackGrad05
    The last 2 runs of the EPS have been a nice look for March 9 - 13 time period.
  11. PackGrad05
    The 00Z EPS really likes the 11-13 time period... Still watching that. Also watching severe potential for Friday.
  12. PackGrad05
    Turned my attention to March 9-11 now.
  13. PackGrad05
    Both the latest EPS and GEFS have members showing snow for RDU around 3/4. The EPS has been consistent with it (50% of members or less) for the past couple days.
  14. PackGrad05
    EPS seems to be trying to sniff something out around the beginning of March. GEFS starting to bite as well.
  15. PackGrad05
    23rd - 27th looks interesting?
  16. PackGrad05
    SREF Link https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ Just now coming into range.
  17. PackGrad05
    Definitely a westward trend. The good thing is we still have a few days.
  18. PackGrad05
  19. PackGrad05
    Here are the 18Z EPS and GEFS probabilities of 1" of snowfall.
  20. PackGrad05
    The placement of the low looks good on the NAM to me.
  21. PackGrad05
    Correct. I looked at snowfall, not snow depth. But the way this season has been, I'd love to see a snow fall, even if it doesn't stick!
  22. PackGrad05
    The probability of 1" or greater improved on both the GEFS and EPS (12Z) as compared to previous runs...for most of central NC. Still low, but good trends.
  23. PackGrad05
    GFS isn't good for Raleigh, but there is still time... and I'm waiting on the GEFS too.
  24. PackGrad05
    00Z EPS still has a decent chance, but not as good as yesterday's 12Z run. Does anyone know how to view the 06Z EPS on weathermodels.com? I have premium. 06Z GEFS trended in the right direction also and shows a greater chance. Neither is a slam dunk of course... at least it is something to track for once.
  25. PackGrad05
    As others have mentioned, the 12Z EPS is showing 24 members with something for RDU. That is up from 4 for the 00Z cycle. GEFS also more on board.
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