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PackGrad05

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Everything posted by PackGrad05

  1. PackGrad05
    I saw a meteorologist from MS post last night that by dark, people would be calling him an idiot, and he expected most of their action to take place after dark. I can't find it now or remember who it was.
  2. PackGrad05
    Personally, I was surprised with the large moderate area for NC/SC. I knew there would be a moderate area, but I was surprised at the northern extent of it. I think this is where experience with CAD comes into play. It will truly be a question of how far north and west the CAD erodes during the day... The moderate area looks to align with your typical ice/rain border in winter weather.
  3. PackGrad05
    is TorCon their version of sig tor parameter? Or is it something different?
  4. PackGrad05
    I'm surprised they went with the enhanced for such a large area so far in advance. Seems it would've been better to go with a large slight and then increase to enhanced as needed. Unless they wanted to raise awareness early.
  5. PackGrad05
    New run of WRAL future cast model shows a less widespread event for central NC. They are hopeful trend will continue and level 3 area be trimmed back.
  6. PackGrad05
    WRAL just said they have noticed a trend with “storm energy” (probably CAPE) being higher east of Raleigh. Said they are watching to see if the level 3 area is trimmed back tomorrow.
  7. PackGrad05
    What do you mean by better? Better for creating severe weather or better as in less severe weather?
  8. PackGrad05
    The 3K NAM doesn't show anything severe over central NC before 8PM. (that's when it currently ends). At 8PM, a line of storms is popping over the mountains GFS much quicker... Timing still up in the air.
  9. PackGrad05
    NAM shows a good amount of 0-3km helicity over NC on Thursday... Sig Tor Parameter around 1-2. . Limiting factor appears to be instability... progression of warm front and time of day will play big.
  10. PackGrad05
    Which NAM product are you looking at?
  11. PackGrad05
    More fantasy snow on 6Z GFS for March 29.
  12. PackGrad05
    This has actually been one of the "coldest overall" winters I can remember in recent years. Yes, we haven't had brutally cold arctic temperatures, but we also haven't had anything over 70 since Dec. 13 (until today for RDU). It has consistently been where it is supposed to be, or a little lower at times.
  13. PackGrad05
    C all day easy.
  14. PackGrad05
    I'm close to the southern edge again. I need this to suppress more.
  15. PackGrad05
    Yep. And they mentioned my thinking. Temperatures on the southern edge will teeter between 32-33 all night....risks of some slick spots in the morning will remain, particularly for northern wake.
  16. PackGrad05
    There is more precipitation coming. I'm not talking about residual moisture from today.
  17. PackGrad05
    I've been saying this all morning. The advisory for Wake always went until 7AM friday unless it is shortened... Same goes for rest.
  18. PackGrad05
    Not a lot of talk about tonight when high res models show freezing rain returning, particularly north of 85.
  19. PackGrad05
    We've had plenty of wind here in Wake. Gusty for sure this morning.
  20. PackGrad05
    I'm still watching high res models for temps for Wake overnight tonight. Could have another brief period of frozen stuff.
  21. PackGrad05
    I can confirm that was a large outage near WTCC on 401 north of Fuquay. I have friends who live over there.
  22. PackGrad05
    The 12Z HRRR shows overnight temps getting down to 33 in Wake with lingering precip. I read earlier in this thread that HRRR overestimates temperatures.. So based on that, should we expect temps to dip down to freezing again tonight?
  23. PackGrad05
    So the next question is does anyone drop below freezing Thursday night/Friday morning?
  24. PackGrad05
    Getting a nice glaze over the last hour or so down here in Willow Spring, southern Wake.
  25. PackGrad05
    They have already scaled back. This is definitely a bigger chance of impact for my area than the last 2 FZRA systems. However, I'm expecting nothing more than a glaze to .1" in Wake, other than perhaps the extreme NW corner. I'm completely fine with that since it is just freezing rain with no snow!
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