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PackGrad05

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Everything posted by PackGrad05

  1. PackGrad05
    Latest high-res Futurecast from WRAL shows snow staying along and east of I-95.... Seems it is on board with other models now. WRAL watching and back pedaling.
  2. PackGrad05
    Maze just said they are waiting to see if there is a northwest trend. He said they are waiting on new globals tonight and not putting much stock in the off-hour ones thisi afternoon.
  3. PackGrad05
    RDU SREF plumes roughly 1-2" WRAL's Futurecast still shows a lot of QPF on Friday... Kat Campbell did just acknowledge they are shifting their map EAST later tonight after looking at new data.
  4. PackGrad05
    WRAL first call map has wake county 3-5 inches. Mike maze said he may shift it southeast a little after looking at new data.
  5. PackGrad05
    Latest from Mike Maze at WRAL @ 4:30PM There's growing confidence that Friday is going to be the day we are going to see our snow. Here's what think we should see throughout the day here in the Triangle. I believe most of the viewing area will see some snow with the most the east.
  6. PackGrad05
    Just one run. The NAM is currently alone with this drastic scenario.
  7. PackGrad05
    Greg Fishel mentioned this several times. He said that it could be an innocent frontal passage. The 2 pieces of energy don't phase enough and the trailing impulse is weaker.
  8. PackGrad05
    The 18Z NAM doesn't look much different than 6Z to this point.
  9. PackGrad05
    What are you looking at? I'm watching the NAM and it is getting cranked up with the precip shield by 9Z
  10. PackGrad05
    Also shows the possibility of minor frozen precip in Wake by 9PM.
  11. PackGrad05
    Who is DT and where is his page?
  12. PackGrad05
    WRAL 12PM Update: Wednesday 12 p.m. update: Good news for Triangle snow lovers WRAL meteorologist Aimee Wilmoth said conditions this weekend are looking good for snow lovers but bad for road conditions. "I am leaning toward more snow for the Triangle," Wilmoth said, adding that she has adjusted the winter weather map showing in blue (snow), pink (sleet) and green (freezing rain) what type of precipitation will fall where on Friday.
  13. PackGrad05
    If the 18Z runs continue the trend, I'm sure we will see totals bumped down 1-2 inches... but the overall bullseye doesn't change.
  14. PackGrad05
    Allan's current forecast is completely reasonable based on the data. You don't make changes to your forecast after each little run. You look at the overall details of each model and watch for trends and you use what you know about meteorology to determine the forecast.
  15. PackGrad05
    At this point I'm looking at high-res short-term models anyway. NAM 3K and 12K look great.
  16. PackGrad05
    Once again.. all models are wrong, some are useful. It is very rare to get a 6+ snowfall here in central NC. In my opinion, the models are trending toward a more climatological solution. A 1-2" event would still be a win for our area. Really the only thing that changed was the QPF. We will see what the next run brings.
  17. PackGrad05
    Than what. Other models, its last run, ?
  18. PackGrad05
    Yeah I don't get the doom and gloom either. A decent snow for Wake County is anything over an inch. That's just reality. This system is still shaping up to be a nice system, especially with temperatures, preceding soil temps, etc... Snow sticking will not be an issue so I don't think we lose anything to melting.
  19. PackGrad05
    The triangle is still looking good. I'd be completely happy with 1" of snow that we can at least go out in and kids can play in.
  20. PackGrad05
    How's the saying go... To get the heaviest snow you gotta be able to smell the rain sleet.
  21. PackGrad05
    haha, Yes! I live in that part of southern wake that is blanked on the snow map! can't make it up. I need to move to Roxboro or Wake Forest. Gonna be such a tight snow/sleet line. I think it shifts more north.
  22. PackGrad05
    One run isn't a trend really.. Gotta keep watching. For those with access to the ECMWF, what in the synoptics changed?
  23. PackGrad05
    Kat Campbell says their 3D model is showing a warm nose despite the very cold surface temps.
  24. PackGrad05
    WRAL's futurecast high res shows nothing Thursday night but mixed precip starting Friday morning. Mix of sleet, snow, freezing rain according to their current forecast. Points out european being more robust but american showing another round saturday.
  25. PackGrad05
    WRAL first call map
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