PackGrad05

From Kat Campbell at WRAL: WHAT. A. NIGHT. Starting today at 4 PM we mentioned what was new was a slight shift east in the models. This was good news for most because it meant more snow and less ice but it would lower totals in our western counties. That trend has continued but in a more dramatic fashion this evening. The American and high resolution models shifted the low pressure far enough east to cut areas near Raleigh north and west entirely out of the winter storm on Friday (though still wintry precipitation with some accumulation Thursday evening and night). The European model and its ensembles does not do this and holds on to our original thinking. It's important that we start addressing these major changes and trends tonight but we aren't tanking snowfall to 0 yet for the following reasons: -The European model has been doing far better with this system since day 1 and the ensembles didn't budge either -This dramatic change happened on the mid-runs of models which do not feed as much data into them (no weather balloons) as the main runs...if this trend continues overnight on those then it more concerning -We will still see impactful winter weather and accumulations on Thursday night (including the Triangle) and parts of our viewing area will still see a major winter storm Friday -Models have a track record of shifting lows NW as we get closer to the events during the winter months

Well the NAM has trended west over the last 2 runs. Euro looked good. ICON looked good. This isn't over.

00 NAM map?

They also said: Wednesday 8 p.m. update: New model runs mean more could see precipitation

The NAM has support from GFS (trending drier) and Futurecast which is based on the Barron model.

What did the GFS ensembles show? Never saw those posted.

Latest high-res Futurecast from WRAL shows snow staying along and east of I-95.... Seems it is on board with other models now. WRAL watching and back pedaling.

Maze just said they are waiting to see if there is a northwest trend. He said they are waiting on new globals tonight and not putting much stock in the off-hour ones thisi afternoon.

RDU SREF plumes roughly 1-2" WRAL's Futurecast still shows a lot of QPF on Friday... Kat Campbell did just acknowledge they are shifting their map EAST later tonight after looking at new data.

WRAL first call map has wake county 3-5 inches. Mike maze said he may shift it southeast a little after looking at new data.

Latest from Mike Maze at WRAL @ 4:30PM There's growing confidence that Friday is going to be the day we are going to see our snow. Here's what think we should see throughout the day here in the Triangle. I believe most of the viewing area will see some snow with the most the east.

Just one run. The NAM is currently alone with this drastic scenario.

Greg Fishel mentioned this several times. He said that it could be an innocent frontal passage. The 2 pieces of energy don't phase enough and the trailing impulse is weaker.

The 18Z NAM doesn't look much different than 6Z to this point.

What are you looking at? I'm watching the NAM and it is getting cranked up with the precip shield by 9Z

Also shows the possibility of minor frozen precip in Wake by 9PM.

Who is DT and where is his page?

WRAL 12PM Update: Wednesday 12 p.m. update: Good news for Triangle snow lovers WRAL meteorologist Aimee Wilmoth said conditions this weekend are looking good for snow lovers but bad for road conditions. "I am leaning toward more snow for the Triangle," Wilmoth said, adding that she has adjusted the winter weather map showing in blue (snow), pink (sleet) and green (freezing rain) what type of precipitation will fall where on Friday.

If the 18Z runs continue the trend, I'm sure we will see totals bumped down 1-2 inches... but the overall bullseye doesn't change.

Allan's current forecast is completely reasonable based on the data. You don't make changes to your forecast after each little run. You look at the overall details of each model and watch for trends and you use what you know about meteorology to determine the forecast.

At this point I'm looking at high-res short-term models anyway. NAM 3K and 12K look great.

Once again.. all models are wrong, some are useful. It is very rare to get a 6+ snowfall here in central NC. In my opinion, the models are trending toward a more climatological solution. A 1-2" event would still be a win for our area. Really the only thing that changed was the QPF. We will see what the next run brings.

Than what. Other models, its last run, ?

Yeah I don't get the doom and gloom either. A decent snow for Wake County is anything over an inch. That's just reality. This system is still shaping up to be a nice system, especially with temperatures, preceding soil temps, etc... Snow sticking will not be an issue so I don't think we lose anything to melting.

The triangle is still looking good. I'd be completely happy with 1" of snow that we can at least go out in and kids can play in.