Jump to content

PackGrad05

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,873

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by PackGrad05

  1. PackGrad05
    Yes, freezing rain accrual is a self-limiting process UNLESS you have a constant, reinforcing supply of shallow cold air... In other words around here, you need a strong and persistent CAD for the duration that doesn't erode or retreat.
  2. PackGrad05
    Thanks. Didn’t Realize the brief duration of warmup until I just checked the forecast.
  3. PackGrad05
    Explain?
  4. PackGrad05
    Antecedent temperatures will be really warm. Ground and road will warm up quick.
  5. PackGrad05
    Don’t fret too much by looking at long range. Remember the long range showed this being a monster storm for us. Things change. we still have a good amount of time. Yes it does get more difficult but February and even March have produced big ones.
  6. PackGrad05
    RAH discussion looks fine to me. I never really expected more than an inch here in southern Wake. We will see what happens.
  7. PackGrad05
    3K NAM looks decent for Wake. Nice 6-8 hour period of light snow, taken verbatim. Granted, boundary layer temps are above freezing at the onset so a lot of it melts on contact... I think an inch on the ground would be a win for Wake.
  8. PackGrad05
    Snow will likely still be falling at the end of that HRRR run. That won't represent storm totals.
  9. PackGrad05
    So it looks like a ~6 hour period of light snow for central NC.
  10. PackGrad05
    I put "bad" and "good" in quotation marks because it is subjective (whether you want snow or don't want snow). I just meant that sometimes we praise the NAM when it shows what we want, but discuss how it is inaccurate when it doesn't show desired outcomes.
  11. PackGrad05
    I think the last few weeks has shown that the NAM is not reliable at all. Brad P even mentioned concerns about its reliability over the last few years since they are transitioning to FV3 and HRRR. If you throw out the "bad runs", you also need to throw out the "good" runs.
  12. PackGrad05
    Verbatim it shows 5-6 hours of snow... That's a nice event for our area, even if it is an inch or so.
  13. PackGrad05
    I'm watching it and that band pivots right through central NC.
  14. PackGrad05
    WRAL's first hand-drawn call map for this system.
  15. PackGrad05
    Cue the local mets showing trends decreasing with euro ensemble probabilities.
  16. PackGrad05
    Euro ensembles are what matters. Waiting on those.
  17. PackGrad05
    Remember this is the same time period that many models lost the storm last week only to trend back with better data as the date drew near.
  18. PackGrad05
    EURO has been most consistent with this event. Interested to see what 12Z ensembles show. Other guidance appears to be trending that way.
  19. PackGrad05
    Still plenty of time. Nothing has really changed over the past 2-3 days if you look at the big picture. Still looks like a rain/snow event with light amounts possible over central NC.
  20. PackGrad05
    Euro has been most consistent so far. Less fluctuations.
  21. PackGrad05
    Great article about how ensembles work if anyone is interested. https://www.wral.com/how-wral-meteorologists-use-ensemble-forecasting-to-determine-the-chance-of-1-or-3-snow-in-your-town/20099023/
  22. PackGrad05
    Latest from local station. I think they have just resorted to posting EURO ensemble probabilities and just update it every 6 hours.
  23. PackGrad05
    The latest update from WRAL. Posting European ensembles again. https://twitter.com/mazewx66/status/1486087212534050817?s=21
  24. PackGrad05
    Euro ensembles will be a better gauge.
  25. PackGrad05
    From Mike Maze: Many folks have been reaching out about the possibility of a major winter storm this weekend. Today's model runs are not showing it at all. Here's a look at the European Ensemble probabilities for 1" of snow ending Saturday night. Does not look good to me right now. Ensemble map shows 26% chance of 1" of snow for Wake.
×
×
  • Create New...