PackGrad05

How's the saying go... To get the heaviest snow you gotta be able to smell the rain sleet.

haha, Yes! I live in that part of southern wake that is blanked on the snow map! can't make it up. I need to move to Roxboro or Wake Forest. Gonna be such a tight snow/sleet line. I think it shifts more north.

One run isn't a trend really.. Gotta keep watching. For those with access to the ECMWF, what in the synoptics changed?

Kat Campbell says their 3D model is showing a warm nose despite the very cold surface temps.

WRAL's futurecast high res shows nothing Thursday night but mixed precip starting Friday morning. Mix of sleet, snow, freezing rain according to their current forecast. Points out european being more robust but american showing another round saturday.

WRAL first call map

I'd be weary of the NE trend in this situation. We need to see the precipitation blossom as the low rides the coast, and not wait until it's in NE NC/SE VA to do it.

Allan Huffman says he has a hunch this will be a typical NE NC / SE VA system.

This is why it is so hard in central NC. You have to thread the needle. Too strong of a system and too far west, you get ice/rain like last weekend. Too weak or too far east, the precip stays at the coast.

Pretty much every EPS member from that graphic is an I-85 special, very similar looking to the last system. The southeast fringe of almost every graphic is likely a wintry mix. Not looking great for Raleigh at the moment for snow.

The trends, at the current moment, are not good for central NC. Looks almost identical to the recent system.

Mike Maze and WRAL posted something about it and shared the euro ensemble forecast. like someone mentioned earlier, they love and put a lot of stock in the euro ensemble.

My forecast for Wake County, particularly southern Wake. Precipitation will begin around 6-7 AM Sunday morning. This will begin as snow/sleet. There is only a 20-30% chance of 1" of snow for our area. I predict a dusting to maybe half inch of snow. It will quickly transition to mostly freezing rain with maybe some sleet mixed in. This will last until around 12-1PM and then it transitions to just rain. Rain will continue until 7-8PM. There could be some flurries later at night as the back end of the system passes through with wrap-around cold air, but this wouldn't affect anything. Impacts: Sunday morning will definitely be the time period to watch. As the sleet/freezing rain falls, it will accrue on power lines, trees, and roads. There will be some limbs/trees that come down as well as power outages. Travel will be very hazardous and I don't recommend going anywhere Sunday morning unless you absolutely have to. After lunch, conditions will improve as our temperatures goes above freezing and things start thawing. However, it will still be very messy with steady rain and lingering ice. Expect a refreeze Sunday night into Monday morning as temperatures dip slightly below freezing.

It does seem that way. Was that the one where he had to jump in the fountain because he lost the bet?

It is all about the mid-levels with this system. Way too warm for snow for most, except at very beginning.

That sounding RDU from NAM appears to show the area below freezing for longer than anticipated. Not good for ice.

WRAL says power outage potential is LOW for wake. Hope it stays that way. Their futurecast shows freezing rain for Raleigh until 12pm and then everything melts.

which one dominates?

Looks like anything in Wake would have a good opportunity to melt before nightfall and re-freeze.

I agree it ends at rain, but by that time the damage is done with potential heavy ice....

WRAL'S FUTURECAST OUTPUT: Shows the LOW tracking directly over CLT. https://twitter.com/WRALweathergal/status/1481678789562220546?s=20

I think that's a smart move. You can cover more roads and there is no threat of rain (small tonight) to really wash it away.

So the NAM is showing no snow at all for central NC.

It still looks like a major winter storm for our area, unless you are just looking for only snow....

Wow. If Wake County goes from a potential for snow to temperatures in the 50s/60s, there will be a lot of confidence lost in forecasting... That's the problem with so many models/graphics/etc... being publicly available online and shared so much. Folks buy in to one model solution way too soon.