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PackGrad05

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Everything posted by PackGrad05

  1. PackGrad05
    NAM still pretty much blanks Wake. North and west, as usual.
  2. PackGrad05
    18Z GFS was a little earlier with the arrival of the precip and maybe a touch colder?
  3. PackGrad05
    At this point for Wake, it'll be interesting to watch temps and see if there are any road issues (bridges, etc..) that would impact commutes and/or schools.
  4. PackGrad05
    When does the 18Z RGEM come out?
  5. PackGrad05
    Looking better for folks near the VA/NC line.. Looking worse for central NC, once again.
  6. PackGrad05
    RGEM is really the only thing still showing even a minor event for triangle. Lost support pretty much from NAM and GFS. FV3 still holding out slightly.
  7. PackGrad05
    I Just took a closer look at the 3K NAM precip depiction. As the precipitation moves in, you can see a "blank" spot in the shape of the wedge over central NC. Could the model be picking up on the moisture not overcoming the initial dry air in place? If so, how well is that normally forecasted in models?
  8. PackGrad05
    Anyone have the maps for latest NAM models? I saw amounts on BUFKIT for RDU, but would like to see map.
  9. PackGrad05
    latest high res NAM looks blank for central NC. Went really anemic.
  10. PackGrad05
    Maps?
  11. PackGrad05
    GFS/FV3/CMC all show potential for wintry mix at onset of precip for central/north-central NC.
  12. PackGrad05
    FWIW, the WPC Probabilities show a 20-30% chance of Wake getting .01" of freezing rain. 5-10% chance of .10" of freezing rain. Not a big deal, but the chances are there. Will have to see if this increases as CAD is better forecasted.
  13. PackGrad05
    18Z doesn't look as good as the 6Z or 12Z did.
  14. PackGrad05
    I want to say the FV3 handled the December storm pretty well... We were tracking it for 7-10 days and it never really wavered.
  15. PackGrad05
    For those in Southern Wake, this winter has pretty much been a blank. I had like half of inch of slush that was gone by mid-day and nothing with the second round later that day.
  16. PackGrad05
    18Z GFS really wasn't sold on much.. FV3 on the other hand...
  17. PackGrad05
    The 6Z GFS still shows some ice potential for central NC on Tuesday/Tuesday night.
  18. PackGrad05
    Sharp cutoff near southern wake? That map is legit!
  19. PackGrad05
    Yeah, I'm not one that usually writes off winter early, but it isn't looking good at all. Maybe we will get surprised down the road.
  20. PackGrad05
    RAH discussion states that another arctic front passes through tonight and will deposit the cold air for RDU. Low near 15-16 with wind chill around 10. Think we get a wind chill advisory, too?
  21. PackGrad05
    Taken literally, the 12Z 3KNAM shows about 4 hours of precipitation for Wake County. Question still remains how much dries before it freezes on roadways.
  22. PackGrad05
    Both the high-res NAM and HRRR show about a 3-4 hour pocket of rain moving through central NC. There is about a 3-4 hour lag period after rain ends before surface temps reach freezing. Whatever doesn't evaporate and dry up will likely freeze by morning.
  23. PackGrad05
    the big question for this system is how much black ice there will be wednesday morning.
  24. PackGrad05
    00Z high res NAM is interesting. Has some light precipitation out ahead of the main front for central NC. albeit rain.
  25. PackGrad05
    NAM3k simulated radar shows a sharp line of heavy rain moving through central NC. Not really any show (verbatim on sim radar), but definitely the potential of black ice since the freezing temps look to set in by 11PM. That only gives about 3-4 hours of drying time prior to any standing water freezing.
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