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PackGrad05

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Everything posted by PackGrad05

  1. PackGrad05
    Not a lot of talk about tonight when high res models show freezing rain returning, particularly north of 85.
  2. PackGrad05
    We've had plenty of wind here in Wake. Gusty for sure this morning.
  3. PackGrad05
    I'm still watching high res models for temps for Wake overnight tonight. Could have another brief period of frozen stuff.
  4. PackGrad05
    I can confirm that was a large outage near WTCC on 401 north of Fuquay. I have friends who live over there.
  5. PackGrad05
    The 12Z HRRR shows overnight temps getting down to 33 in Wake with lingering precip. I read earlier in this thread that HRRR overestimates temperatures.. So based on that, should we expect temps to dip down to freezing again tonight?
  6. PackGrad05
    So the next question is does anyone drop below freezing Thursday night/Friday morning?
  7. PackGrad05
    Getting a nice glaze over the last hour or so down here in Willow Spring, southern Wake.
  8. PackGrad05
    They have already scaled back. This is definitely a bigger chance of impact for my area than the last 2 FZRA systems. However, I'm expecting nothing more than a glaze to .1" in Wake, other than perhaps the extreme NW corner. I'm completely fine with that since it is just freezing rain with no snow!
  9. PackGrad05
    Exactly... Look at real data, upstream and downstream, at this point vs. every model run. Models are underestimating that cold supply to the north. Going over snow covered cold ground.
  10. PackGrad05
    18Z HRRR shows a good amount less on the southern/eastern edge vs. the 12Z. WRAL map has wake split between glaze to .10" and .10" to .25" in northern Wake. "A light glaze is possible, especially on elevated surfaces. Some slick bridges and sidewalks are possible"
  11. PackGrad05
    Brad P tweeted out that model output is garbage at this point. Gotta look upstream where the cold air is coming from. Real observations.
  12. PackGrad05
    High elevation. The cold dense air is sinking past you.
  13. PackGrad05
    The air outside just feels different than it did before the last 2 systems. It is a different kind of cold, feels really dry as well.
  14. PackGrad05
    Latest WPC guidance shows roughly 20 - 70% chance of .10" across Wake from southeast to northwest. Slightly lower for .25"
  15. PackGrad05
    So do we expect NWS to scale back their advisories/watches based on latest model output or let it ride?
  16. PackGrad05
    Wake was and always has been on the edge of this. Northwest/northern wake to face the brunt with southern Wake being spared the worst hopefully.
  17. PackGrad05
    There may be minor tweaks here and there to amounts and area coverage, but at this point it doesn't matter a whole lot. Everyone in the watch/advisory area should make preparations and just hope for the best.
  18. PackGrad05
    If it happens, it would likely be in the morning package.
  19. PackGrad05
    As others have mentioned, Brad P's latest video was definitely eye opening... And his in-house future cast is showing more ice for more of NC than other models I've seen. Mike Maze for WRAL did a video earlier too but he just mentioned the chance of something and more details later. Their future cast wasn't as robust.
  20. PackGrad05
    I think Wake will get a WWA probably tonight or tomorrow morning.
  21. PackGrad05
    Cold air source will be much better. Circulation around the high should be transporting air from cold snow-packed areas.
  22. PackGrad05
    I agree. Which is why people need to specify a location they are referring to with each post. It is complicated trying to go back and figure out which place people are talking about. For now, I would go with a FZRA event for typical climo areas. I do think WWA will go up southeast of the current WSW areas. Question is, how far?
  23. PackGrad05
    That NAM looks a little colder. Almost identical though
  24. PackGrad05
    Latest models look interesting for Wake too. I don't think it will be a bad event (as of now) for Wake, but looks to have more potential than the last rounds. May get a WWA out of it.
  25. PackGrad05
    18Z NAM looks almost identical to ECMWF, perhaps less QPF... but placement looks similar
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