PackGrad05
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Everything posted by PackGrad05
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Amounts i'll give you, but track and placement of frozen precip was spot on as we got within closer range.
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12Z GFS still too far north with the Low for central NC to have any frozen issues. VA/NC border may have some.
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What did the individual EPS members show? as far as snow for RDU? Yesterday's, all 50 members showed something.
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12Z GFS remains unimpressed with sunday's system.
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Wake County looks to do better with tonight's system than the weekend system (as of now). I hope it just stays snow or rain.... I don't need ice issues.
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I agree with everything in the RAH discussion.. I'm going for dusting - 1" for southern wake. Grassy surfaces...melting by afternoon.
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The NAM wasn't buying the warm temperatures. It was one of the first models to show the wedge.
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I would lean toward the NAM at this point. Given thermal profiles
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This is the craziest thing I've seen. (well, not really since I've lived in central NC my whole life). Local meteorologists must be going crazy.... You also have to remember that most of these model outputs assume 10:1 and combine sleet/snow, etc... Looking at soundings, it really doesn't cool off enough until the end, and then barely if that.
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1Z NAM looks decent, but 3K NAM says nope... HRRR is a mix between the two. The end of the run is 12Z on Thursday and most of precip will be done by then anyway.
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Depending on temperatures/dew points, saturday/sunday event could be an in-situ damming
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the 6z NAM was a little juicer than 3K NAM, but both seemed to jump south... Still just having a hard time buying it with the cold chasing moisture scenario at the end of this system. Unless there is some banding at the end.
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0Z NAM shows some token flakes and maybe a trace of snow across central NC on the tail end of the system Thursday morning. Cold chasing moisture though. 3K gives northern wake almost an inch.
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The 18Z GFS was trying to show something for Feb. 7. Low off the coast and high pressure in a somewhat favorable position, but weak 1030
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If the NAM verifies with the wedge tomorrow and temperatures in northern/central NC don't get quite as high as originally predicted, that would bode better for temperatures cooling off quicker wednesday night
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Matter of fact, the PARA increased snowfall over central NC from the last run.
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GFS definitely trending in the right direciton.
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WRAL showing a 15% chance of 1" of snow for Wake. (They just relabeled the map and it is Euro Ensemble output)
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The 0Z NAM was a decent track, but not cold enough except for NE NC on the back end...
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I'm waiting for the 00Z NAM to finish loading.
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The high temperature forecast for Tuesday is going to be really difficult for RDU... Weak CAD signature showing up on NAM... could be a huge temp difference across the area.
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Yep, much better L placement for central NC. The weenie in me doesn't want to let it go even though it looks like rain for us.
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What did EPS look like?
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Still don't think it is quite *over* for Wake. UKMET showed trace - 1 inch for wake. GFS Para showed 1-2". Almost 1/2 of the EPS ensembles showed something. I want to see 12Z ECMWF and EPS
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Yes it is a good bit more south than standard GFS.. Gives Wake 1-2" across the board.
