PackGrad05
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Everything posted by PackGrad05
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Can you provide specifics?
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It's a shame there isn't a high in a good location on 2/1, 2/2.... Great low track.
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Hey all. I'll be in the Jersey City/NYC area this weekend visiting family. Never been up there when it snowed! Do a lot of things shut down when it snows, such as PATH train, stores, museums, etc..? Keep in mind that I'm coming from a Raleigh, NC perspective when lots of things shut down if it snows. If this is the wrong place to post this, I apologize. Thanks
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Agreed. I'd rather work with too much cold/suppressed than it be warm and wish for more cold..
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Very active period between January 17-22 that still looks interesting... Historically, the time around MLK Holiday is a great spot for us, probably because it is smack in the middle of our "coldest" portion of the year. Also interesting that the GFS still has a horrible cold bias, particularly past day 5. The ECMWF and GFS are very different with the extent of the cold past day 5.
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That's me. I'm used to it by now... There are a couple more of us on here, too. My friend in northern Wake always texts me pics of his snow and I send him back pics of my rain.
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That's true. I am looking at it through south wake lens. The gradient is ridiculous. Noway we have been anywhere close to 5 feet.
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Interesting map, but I wish it was more specific. Shows portions of Wake County at 5 feet, and I really don't think that's true... Most of Wake would be 1-3 feet over that time frame I would think.
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Just a reminder, it only takes one. It still isn't January. I think we get lucky once or twice...even if it is 60 a couple days after.
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Yep, that tornado in Willow Spring touched down a quarter mile from my house! Right on the other side of the trees! I went and looked at the damage today. Definitely tornadic looking.
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The storm that was tornado warned in JoCo moved through my area of Wake in Willow Spring. We had very heavy gusts at my home, approximately 55-60 mph at least. Strongest winds I've seen in a long time. It knocked my power out for 5 hours. When the power came on, I saw that one local station said there was a possible tornado that moved through my area (near Highway 42 and Hilltop Rd). I remember watching the velocities during this time on RadarScope and I didn't see any couplets, just straight-line. However, there is the exact same cell that moved into JoCo and prompted the tornado warning, so I guess it is possible that something extremely brief touched down or at least lowered.
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My car and home roof was destroyed in the Willow Spring hail storm back on September 1, 2017. So when that hail storm started coming this way, I was having flashbacks. Fortunately, my area only got pea sized/marble sized this time. But I saw the worst went toward the Garner/Cleveland area. That size hail for this general area twice in less than two years is pretty remarkable.
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The latest briefing from NWS Raleigh shows the timing for central NC being between 1PM and 8PM. Though, looking at the latest NAM3K and HRRR, there appears to be some convection, perhaps discrete, popping up around 9-10AM. Anyone else seeing this?
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Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent
PackGrad05 replied to Jonathan's topic in Southeastern States
I think I'm the only 5-mile radius area in Wake County that got hardly nothing with this system. We got about 1-2 inches of slush on Sunday that was melted by dinner. Absolutely nothing with this system Monday morning. Extremely frustrating. -
The upper level low brings its own cold air, in a way. But rates will be lighter. I think the most anyone could expect is an addition 1", if that.
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I would really love to see this happen tomorrow. We only got a couple inches of slush in southern Wake and most of it was over before sunrise. Models are looking good. Upper level lows bring their own cold, so we have that going for us, too.
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I'd love to get another little burst of snow tonight/tomorrow since we didn't get a lot of snow with this round.
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Apologies, I meant Raleigh. And yea they ended up issuing WSW, but I'm still not convinced it was necessary. I could see some snow/sleet accumulations in the morning that will be washed away by a cold rain later in the day. I think a lot of children (mine included) are going to be disappointed. We need to get up early and go outside because playing in the snow in a cold rain later will be miserable.
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I was referring to Raleigh. Temperatures in Charlotte may actually stay at 32 for much longer which causes the ice accrual.
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important point. Temperatures get above freezing around lunch time tomorrow and never go below freezing Sunday night. Lots of melting to be had. Monday morning may not be all that bad on the roads. Tuesday morning could be worse with refreeze.
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Taken verbatim, southern wake gets about 4-5 hours of snow while northern wake could get another 2-3 hours... The subsequent rain will wash away any snow that accumulated.
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My official Wake county forecast: Extreme southern wake near JoCo/Harnett = 0-1" of snow and minor glazing. Central Wake = 1-2 inches of snow - minor glazing. Northern Wake = 3-5 inches, minor glazing.
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Greg Fishel went all in on probabilistic forecasting and prefers showing probabilities of certain amounts rather than committing to a specific amount on a map. I haven't seen his chat or forecast tonight, but last night he was just not that impressed.
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Southern Wake looks like it will get blanked... or less than 1". I'm just hoping the freezing rain stays away!
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I don't think they are garbage. I prefer them because they are more conservative than the outlandish global clown maps. In past events, they have been more in the ballpark than globals.
